Will the Euro die in a few years

[ShadesWolf]

This is not the article I was looking for but its spells out the same message.


Italian call for lira return rocks euro

SHUDDERS swept through the City today after an Italian minister said the country should consider quitting the euro and reintroducing the lira.

Welfare minister Roberto Maroni, a member of the eurosceptic Northern League party, told La Repubblica newspaper that Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to the lira.


He blamed European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet for being among those chiefly responsible for the 'disaster of the euro'.


The comments follow reports that top German officials have examined the possible collapse of the single currency at a secret meeting in Berlin.


The euro dived three-quarters of a cent against the dollar on Maroni's remarks before clawing back most of it.


'The Northern League are nutters,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics. 'They want to separate from Italy, let alone the eurozone.'


Mark Wall, European economist at Deutsche Bank, said: 'Europe is gripped with uncertainty.' He added that the chances of the euro breaking down are still 'incredibly small'.

[Ser Clegane]

Extremely unlikely that something like that is going to happen.

This looks more like a single politician trying to get some attention now that there are some people qiuestioing the EU after the votes in France and in the Netherlands.

[Boohugh]

Unless there is a political decision by all the Eurozone countries to get rid of the Euro, which seems unlikely, then it is unfortunately here to stay .

[Catiline]

Nope. and it's a matter of when, not if we join. Now's not the time, but it will surely come.

[A.Saturnus]

'The Northern League are nutters,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics. 'They want to separate from Italy, let alone the eurozone.'

Well said. This is all a hysteria and the media helps to fuel the fire.
Yes, prices increased after introduction of the Euro. Why? Because every change in currency brings an implicit collusion with it. It's just an opportunity for the industry to raise prices all at the same time. That's the reason and not some weakness of the Euro. If Italy leaves the Eurozone, prices will rise again and not fall! In the long run, the advantages of the Euro outweight this effect.
Another claim you hear today is that the Euro helps countries like Ireland economically while it causes problems to Germany and Italy. That is true, but only becuase the Euro works as it is intended too. It's the purpose of the Euro to further competition and Ireland is simply the better competitor. Welcome to the free market! That Germany, France and Italy have now problems because they slept over important economic reforms for decades is not the fault of the Euro. In the contrary, it's a feat of the Euro to kick them in the ass, finally!

[Kagemusha]

I dont think that the Euro is going enywhere.I dont like all the features of EU but i think that the Monetary Union benefits us all by stabilizing the markets and keeping the in interest rate down.

[Productivity]

Unless there is a political decision by all the Eurozone countries to get rid of the Euro, which seems unlikely, then it is unfortunately here to stay .

What is your issue with it?

[CBR]

I doubt it will die. But EU has experienced a lot of changes recently with the Euro and 10 new members. I think it all just needs some time for people to get used to the new Europe.


CBR

[Ldvs]

I doubt it will die. But EU has experienced a lot of changes recently with the Euro and 10 new members. I think it all just needs some time for people to get used to the new Europe.

We won't have enough time. Within two years, both Bulgaria and Romania will enter the EU. The Euro is, with the Pound, the only currency strong enough to compete with the Dollar. It would rather be a great loss if we went back to our former weak currencies.
What needs to be done though, is removing the CEB's independency, unless its leaders start to act decently...

[CBR]

After having swallowed 10 new nations I do think/hope that Romania and Bulgaria joining EU wont upset things much as its only two nations. Turkey on the other hand...


CBR

[Kagemusha]

I dont mean to offend anyone but i just dont think EU can include Turkey to Union in this current situation.There is too much diversity inside EU already as it is.I dont know is this an fact(correct me if im wrong).But i cant see how EU can get ever very unified when all the nations in EU are not equal in decicion making processes.If EU wants to develop it self to kind of Federal state how can bigger states have more votes than lesser countries.This only will lead to an different "camps" inside EU.My opinion is that its the only way EU to develop into an European Nation,is to fallow true principles of Repuplic and give all the "provinces" same amount of votes.

[Ldvs]

After having swallowed 10 new nations I do think/hope that Romania and Bulgaria joining EU wont upset things much as its only two nations. Turkey on the other hand...


CBR

Oh they can, since most of the decisions are made by unanimous assent. One annoying country is enough

My opinion is that its the only way EU to develop into an European Nation,is to fallow true principles of Repuplic and give all the "provinces" same amount of votes.

This point could be considered as... original, but you live in one of these "small countries", thus your demand is understandable, yet unfair. I will not assume things about countries I don't know, so I'll ask you a simple question.
Do your compatriots fear that Turkey will outweigh "small" countries like yours and thereby "force" them to comply with decisions you think unfair because you don't share the same culture?

[thrashaholic]

The trouble with Italy having the Euro is that it is so much more valuable than the lira ever was and that they have no control over its value.

At present Italy is not exporting enough and importing too much, the higher value of the Euro acts as an incentive for Italians to buy from abroad and disincentivises foreigners from buying goods from Italy. To correct this a country would devalue it's currency in relation to others, but Italy cannot (Portugal are sufferring from a similar problem). This is one of the major flaws with the single European currency. In countries with their own currency one region can support another less profittable one (for example: South England supporting Scotland), but this does not happen in the Eurozone because it is made up of several nations. One country is unwilling to fund another struggling one, as it has no incentive or obligation to do so, this results in countries like Italy, who have seen their currency jump in value, struggling and ending up with giantic trade defecits, resulting in stagnating growth and massive amounts of borrowing.

Personally I don't blame Eurozone citizens for wanting to go back to their old currencies, although the Euro is a good idea in principal, it was foolish to introduce it without some sort of framework to protect countries like Italy. The USA didn't have a single currency for quite a time into its existence; the EU are trying to create a superstate from the top down rather than the bottom up, which of course is leading to its failure.

[BDC]

I'm sure it would only make the situation worse...

[Kagemusha]

Oh they can, since most of the decisions are made by unanimous assent. One annoying country is enough


This point could be considered as... original, but you live in one of these "small countries", thus your demand is understandable, yet unfair. I will not assume things about countries I don't know, so I'll ask you a simple question.
Do your compatriots fear that Turkey will outweigh "small" countries like yours and thereby "force" them to comply with decisions you think unfair because you don't share the same culture?

No im not afraid Turkey outweighing small countries like mine.I just think that EU
is taking too many countries in too fast,and im afraid it will eventually cripple EU.I say this because when we take new countries in,especially with lower economies we must try to invest there lots of money to get them in the EU standards.
So EU needs more money and has to be taken from the "older"EU nations,by increasing the fees to EU.I think it is an good intention,but when Most of EU nations Economy encrease is almost litlle to nothing.It will lead to unhappines inside those countries.So my point here is that we have to digest what we have eaten before we can eat some moore.
About my compatriots,Finland is one of the most "Pro EU" countries in Union.This what im saying is purely my own opinion.

[JAG]

The Euro will not die, far from it, other countries will join the currency in the years to come.

[CBR]

Well I doubt 80 million Germans will consider it fair and democratic that 5 million Danes have the same number of votes as they have. I guess we small nations fear we get swallowed by the few big nations in Europe.

And I guess we are still having the Us versus Them mentality: my nation is the greatest and all others are "insert stereotype" As long as we focus on differences instead of just admitting we actually are very alike we will always have some kind of fear of our "evil and corrupt" neighbours.

I saw a journalist asking some French what they voted and why and one woman said very bluntly: I voted no as I dont want Turkey in as they are barbarians.

That might not be very fair towards the Turks but maybe that is the prevailing thought. They are muslims and a different culture (and we really dont know much about them either) so they do look a bit scary.

Of course if you look at it the other way around its actually quite interesting that they are willing to join a EU of 450 million people who belong to the western/christian culture. Maybe they are not that different from us... we just dont see it yet


CBR

[Kagemusha]

Just a moment a go i realiced that this discussion is going bit far from the original question
about whether the euro is going to stay.So i suggest my fellow patrons should we start a brand new thread,where we could "tear each others eyes of"in civilized manner?

[Productivity]

What you are proposing Kagemusha is gerrymandering by stealth.

"If EU wants to develop it self to kind of Federal state how can bigger states have more votes than lesser countries."

Same way every other democracy does it. California has more electoral college votes than Hawaii, New South Wales has more house of represantive votes than Western Australia etc. I'm failing to see what the problem is here.

A fundamental basis of democracy should be that everyone's vote is equal or near equal. I would be one who would lose out of this (dutch citizen) but I really fail to see how you can base any working democracy on anything other than one vote one value.

[Kagemusha]

What you are proposing Kagemusha is gerrymandering by stealth.

"If EU wants to develop it self to kind of Federal state how can bigger states have more votes than lesser countries."

Same way every other democracy does it. California has more electoral college votes than Hawaii, New South Wales has more house of represantive votes than Western Australia etc. I'm failing to see what the problem is here.

A fundamental basis of democracy should be that everyone's vote is equal or near equal. I would be one who would lose out of this (dutch citizen) but I really fail to see how you can base any working democracy on anything other than one vote one value.

I think that you have reached the main guestion inside EU.In my opinion EU is great forum for us Europeans and we can co-operate together within EU.I dont want that EU turns into giant melting pot.Where bigger Nations assimilate the litle,in the end if that happends will EU be big Germany,France or Britain?

[Productivity]

I think that you have reached the main guestion inside EU.In my opinion EU is great forum for us Europeans and we can co-operate together within EU.I dont want that EU turns into giant melting pot.Where bigger Nations assimilate the litle,in the end if that happends will EU be big Germany,France or Britain?

Then you're condemming Europe to a future of obscurity. A Europe with many countries, and only some semblance of cooperation will never compete internationally cet. par.

Many Americans (with good reason) love attitudes like that. It doesn't need to worry about a rival power, the citizens of Europe continuously find arguments to avoid moving themselves forwards.

[CBR]

Well I dont think we will be one big melting pot as we afterall have different languages. But on the other hand it would be nice if less decisions were done by nation states as they only think of themselves and thats not always good for the majority.


CBR

[Kagemusha]

Then you're condemming Europe to a future of obscurity. A Europe with many countries, and only some semblance of cooperation will never compete internationally cet. par.

Many Americans (with good reason) love attitudes like that. It doesn't need to worry about a rival power, the citizens of Europe continuously find arguments to avoid moving themselves forwards.

What kind of power are we talking about?

[cunctator]

I dont mean to offend anyone but i just dont think EU can include Turkey to Union in this current situation.

Nobody is talking about to include turkey now. Only the negotiations for membership should begin this year. realisticly turkey will nor join the EU before 2015 or even later.

[Kagemusha]

Nobody is talking about to include turkey now. Only the negotiations for membership should begin this year. realisticly turkey will nor join the EU before 2015 or even later.

I think,in the long run EU shoud atleast negotiate with all countries who are willing to join the Union and as i sayd before i have nothing against any country.I hope that 2015 everything is better than now,but i think there are big issues which has to be adressed before that.

[doc_bean]

I think the Euro is here to stay, if all this debates lowers its value, so much the better, it's too high as it is.


I think accepting so many new countries was not a good idea, i think accepting even more countries so soon is a bad idea, i think even considering letting Turkey join in its present state is a terrible idea.

We are still spending money on Italy, Ireland and other countries of the 'old' Europe, suddenly we expect them to go from receivers to contributors ? They'll surely welcome that.
I don't have anything against any of the new countries, but we simply cannot financially support a Union so large and so poor. It's a sad fact, but we should be realistic.

[Kagemusha]

I think the Euro is here to stay, if all this debates lowers its value, so much the better, it's too high as it is.


I think accepting so many new countries was not a good idea, i think accepting even more countries so soon is a bad idea, i think even considering letting Turkey join in its present state is a terrible idea.

We are still spending money on Italy, Ireland and other countries of the 'old' Europe, suddenly we expect them to go from receivers to contributors ? They'll surely welcome that.
I don't have anything against any of the new countries, but we simply cannot financially support a Union so large and so poor. It's a sad fact, but we should be realistic.

Well sayd,that pretty sums what i have tryed to say last few hours.

[A.Saturnus]

I don't have anything against any of the new countries, but we simply cannot financially support a Union so large and so poor. It's a sad fact, but we should be realistic.

I wouldn't be urprised if by 2020 Turkey is the economical powerhouse of the EU.

At present Italy is not exporting enough and importing too much, the higher value of the Euro acts as an incentive for Italians to buy from abroad and disincentivises foreigners from buying goods from Italy. To correct this a country would devalue it's currency in relation to others, but Italy cannot (Portugal are sufferring from a similar problem).

And they can't do that for a good reason, because playing with the currency that way may be a good quick measure to increase export, but it's bad in the long run. Germany had always a strict monetary policy and it's the most export oriented nation in the world. A better plan for Italy would be to produce cheaper. That way their export may have a chance against other countries.
Ask yourself, why are Ireland and Finland doing so well, with the same currency? Because the economical policy is more streamlined. Taxes are lower, there's less regulation, labour is cheaper, they invest in the right sort of industry. No, Italy has no one to blame than herself, lazyness and the stupidity of her leaders. And it's the same for Germany, France and Portugal.

[Productivity]

What needs to be done though, is removing the CEB's independency, unless its leaders start to act decently...

You want to make a central bank LESS autonomous? Well that's certainly an interesting point, it goes against every single paper I've read on central banks recently, and I've read a lot of them.

[bmolsson]

Where is Julius Ceasar when you need him......