Future Superpowers?

[Don Corleone]

It was a joke! Sorry, didn't mean to touch a nerve. All kidding aside, the truth will probably hurt even more. I don't put a lot of stock in the EU's competitiveness, because at the end of the day, you'll all still see yourselves as French, Dutch, German, etc. You won't be willing to 'take one for the team', if the team's not from your country. I don't see Peugot and Saab agreeing to close down their factories and send all their best engineers to Volkswagen. I don't see Siemens & Ericsson deciding to quit working in China and sending all their best designs to Nokia.

[CBR]

You didnt touch a nerve

But the examples of companies you mention... thats companies and what they will do is up to them and doesnt have anything to do with nations. I doubt any US company will go for another US company first but for what gives most profit. At least thats how I understand free market economy.

Edit: but you are right that EU is divided compared to USA and still thinks about what benefits our own nation first and we might never be able to work as one as the culture/languages divide us.


CBR

[Kagemusha]

About China.Tell me if im terribly wrong,but it seems to me that how China have been governed have not chanced almost at all under "Communist regime" if cultural revolution is excluded.It seems that that the actual structure of government is still pretty much "confuzean",like it was when Emperors ruled China.

[Don Corleone]

Well, that's actually the new spin over there. But the problem was, in Confuzean (sp?) ethics, incompetent beuracrats are replaced, and the offices are based on meritocracy, not heredity. That's not what happens now. Crooked and worse, inept, party officials aren't replaced. The Chinese don't mind being governed by autocracy when it's a harmonious autocracy, but that's not what they have right now, no matter how badly the party wants to re-spin itself that way.

[Kagemusha]

Well, that's actually the new spin over there. But the problem was, in Confuzean (sp?) ethics, incompetent beuracrats are replaced, and the offices are based on meritocracy, not heredity. That's not what happens now. Crooked and worse, inept, party officials aren't replaced. The Chinese don't mind being governed by autocracy when it's a harmonious autocracy, but that's not what they have right now, no matter how badly the party wants to re-spin itself that way.

So how do you think the situation in China is going to evolve,or is it?

[Pindar]

About China.Tell me if im terribly wrong,but it seems to me that how China have been governed have not chanced almost at all under "Communist regime" if cultural revolution is excluded.It seems that that the actual structure of government is still pretty much "confuzean",like it was when Emperors ruled China.

If you accept that China is following a dynastic model then it will stagnate. The Middle Kingdom approach only maintains any standing when it is not challenged by more aggressive, more efficient systems.

[PanzerJaeger]

In 2015, America. China will be a contender. The EU is worthless.

[Don Corleone]

I think China's going to face some more political upheaval in the years to come. I don't think it will be a revolution or anything so dramatic as that, but I can't imagine the current system will last significantly longer. The Chinese people know the party screwed up with SARS & a few other things. A few more of those, and they're going to start weighing their options. Watch Hong Kong/ Guangzhou area. That's generally where 'new tides of change' start.

All that being said, the Chinese are incredibly industrious, and fairly adaptive. They will probably grow the most in terms of relative economic position in the years to come.

Again, I stress, I don't want to make any predictions, I'm just saying that I see flys in the ointment of any scenario you predict. Who knows, maybe in 50 years, we'll be to a 1 world government finally?

[Kagemusha]

Well sayd Don Corleone.The future is not yet ours to see

[doc_bean]

The US will most likely remain number 1, 10 years isn't that long, and I don't see anything that can really pull it down.

China is an interesting case, they have lots of highly educated workers, but they are trapped in traditional systems. A chinese girl told me that your education doesn't determine your wage in China, it's the family you're born into, but getting a good education, especially abroad, does help. The Chinese seem to be willing to invest a lot in their education, even when they are older. If they can break with tradition and get some decent government, they definitely have the potential to become an economic superpower.


When it comes to the EU, I have to agree with Don Corleone as long as we're not willing to work harder, and as long as the governments support this lifestyle (different rant, maybe another time) we won't be able to keep up. The Union also seems unable to deliver where it really matters, on economical issues like the EU patent.

I suspect the new countries will have the biggest potential, and we'll see the biggest growth there. I also think Britain will benefit, they don't have so many deadlock social systems, they can have a flexible economy thanks to the pound and they aren't focused on agriculture as much. France will suffer the most, Spain stands to face some problems since they too are so dependant on agriculture. Italy and Greece have always had problems, and we've thrown a lot of money towards them, it won't et better when we stop. Belgium has a lot of issues of its own, besides economical problems which i won't go into, there is a large separatist feeling building up in Flanders, I have no idea to what this might lead, although I wouldn't predict the end of Belgium just yet.


India should not be underestimate, we are already outsourcing a lot of work their, not just manufacturing either.

Japan will probably reinstate its army at some point in the future, but their economy is still suffering, hard to tell what will happen.