Research: what causes rebels to appear?

[econ21]

At the request of Morat, I am opening this thread to research into the causes of rebelliousness.

Among the factors I have heard mentioned are:
- town loyalty: on claim is that if loyalty is 100% or higher (and there is no unrest) there will be no rebels in the province
- unrest
- presence of the "fog of war": it is claimed that rebels spawn out of sight; having a wider field of vision (e.g. through watch towers) reduces the likelihood of rebels spawning.

Morat is also interested in what types of rebels are spawned.

[Mongoose]

Im my campaign with the SPQR mod, i noticed that having two forts in every province seemed to stop them completely.

In fact, it seemed to have more effect then having more units in the city...

In my experience, rebels appear randomly even if the city has a high happiness rating. The only thing that stops them is forts...

As for the type of units, simply look at descr_rebel_factions.txt.

rebel_type Brigantes //Britons
category peasant_revolt
chance 0
description Brigantes
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb chariot heavy slave
unit barbarian rebel general

rebel_type Trinovantes //Britons
category peasant_revolt
chance 0
description Trinovantes
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb chariot heavy slave
unit barbarian rebel general

rebel_type Suebi //Germans
category peasant_revolt
chance 3
description Suebi
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb fanatics slave
unit barb cavalry slave
unit barbarian rebel general

rebel_type Saxones //Germans
category peasant_revolt
chance 3
description Saxones
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb fanatics slave
unit barbarian rebel general

rebel_type Gepids //Germans
category peasant_revolt
chance 3
description Gepids
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb infantry slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb peasant slave
unit barb fanatics slave
unit barb cavalry slave
unit barbarian rebel general

Setting the units to 'barb peasant slave' will make them nothing but peasants.

[Simetrical]

I remember reading a dev statement that watchtowers didn't help against rebels, but forts did.

-Simetrical

[locked_thread]

1) Loyalty has no effect.
2) Fog of war has no effect.
3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
4) The "chance" parameter in descr_rebels.txt seems to have no effect.

Forts do seem to have an effect. But rebels still pop up even if you have 2 well-placed forts per province. I tried building a fort at every place I found rebels. Mostly they appeared on roads near borders. However, I saw repeated instances of rebels popping up in the narrow space between fort and city.

My current approach is to edit descr_rebels.txt to eliminate all rebel types other than peasants. With only peasants, they don't try to conquer my towns. This allows me to simply ignore rebels for the most part, though they still impose a massive trade hit. Also, peasant-only rebel stacks can be killed via auto-calc. Note that heirs of dead factions still appear in rebel stacks; this seems hardcoded in v1.2.

[Krauser]

Could difficulty have something to do with it too?

Playing on Very Hard/Very Hard they sprung up here and there but on Easy/Easy I only faced rebels a few times at the begginning. They still appeared around my borders but never inside.

Maybe it's just plain luck though.

[Carth]

Why are people trying to remove rebels? I always thought they were good practice, and they've never been a threat. I like to take the smallest army I can against them and see if I can win, and then your units get experience and your general gets command stars.

[locked_thread]

It's no big deal when you have 5 cities. But when you get around 40 cities you can spend nearly all your time fighting rebels. It's incredibly boring, and campaigns take forever to finish.

I normally play on Hard/Normal, but I'm currently playing on Normal/Normal. I'm still experiencing hordes of self regenerating rebel stacks.

Edit: And why fight rebels? They massively cut into your economy. In v1.2, they constantly move around, lay ambushes, and even lay seige to your towns. In one campaign I commited several stacks to actively hunt down rebels; yet I would frequently find one or even two(!) of my cities beseiged.

[Carth]

Oh, well I've not got very far in the game so far. I imagine it would be tedious if I had a lot more territory to defend and there were one or two rebels appearing in every province. I'll probably want to disable it then too.

I don't know about cutting into my economy, so far I haven't spent any more money to defend against them. Granted I lost a few troops, but not many. For example there was a unit of hastati and some other random troop like peasants or town militia and I just took my general's bodyguard unit and attacked. Because they were slow I attacked (for the charge bonus) and then retreated, again and again. I lost one man, because he got a bit stuck in the hastati after a charge.

[locked_thread]

Rebels cut your economy by blocking trade routes. You can see the effect by comparing the city's economy before and after killing a nearby rebel stack. I once saw a city's trade leap by 900d after I killed nearby rebels.

[Krauser]

It's no big deal when you have 5 cities. But when you get around 40 cities you can spend nearly all your time fighting rebels. It's incredibly boring, and campaigns take forever to finish.

I normally play on Hard/Normal, but I'm currently playing on Normal/Normal. I'm still experiencing hordes of self regenerating rebel stacks.

Edit: And why fight rebels? They massively cut into your economy. In v1.2, they constantly move around, lay ambushes, and even lay seige to your towns. In one campaign I commited several stacks to actively hunt down rebels; yet I would frequently find one or even two(!) of my cities beseiged.

But by then don't you have a large enough army to defend your settlements? I mean you only need a few large armies for conquest. You could spend the rest of your money on more troops to defend settlements. It will keep your treasury low and reduce corruption.

[econ21]

1) Loyalty has no effect.
2) Fog of war has no effect.
3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
4) The "chance" parameter in descr_rebels.txt seems to have no effect.

Interesting, but it would be useful to indicate the source/status of these statements. They could be hearsay - like the hypotheses I started this thread with. They could be casual observation from gaming experience. They could be inside information from game designers, like what Simmetrical aluded to. Or they could be observation from tests based on modding the game. It's be useful to know what kind of statements you're making, as it affects how much weight readers will attach to them.

One casual observation from my current Rome RTR campaign is that I've had no rebellions from a long time in Italy, the long pacified homeland, whereas the odd one or two are popping up on the fringes of my lands. There's virtually no fog of war in RTR Italy and I suspect no unrest now, so I am a little sceptical of claims (2) and (3).

[player1]

Well my experience (but no real proof) says that provinces that have green loyalty AND zero unrest will gain no rebels.

For example in my last Julii campaing I don't remember having any rebels in my central italian provinces (which had green loyalty and no unrest).

[player1]

Could difficulty have something to do with it too?

Playing on Very Hard/Very Hard they sprung up here and there but on Easy/Easy I only faced rebels a few times at the begginning. They still appeared around my borders but never inside.

Campaing difficulty level DOES have effect on rebels.
It's even stated in readme.

[player1]

Well my experience (but no real proof) says that provinces that have green loyalty AND zero unrest will gain no rebels.

For example in my last Julii campaing I don't remember having any rebels in my central italian provinces (which had green loyalty and no unrest).

But I do remember getting rebels in provinces with yellow loyaly, or in province that are green but have unrest levels.

[Jambo]

I'm almost certain unrest levels are related to rebel uprisings.

[locked_thread]

Interesting, but it would be useful to indicate the source/status of these statements.

Personal research....

1) Loyalty has no effect.
I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up in provinces with loyalty above 150%.

2) Fog of war has no effect.
I spent two very long campaigns researching this premise. I rigorously built watchtowers everywhere. Not one scrap of my land was invisible. Yet rebels would pop up, even on top of watchtowers.

3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
I've seen rebels appear in provinces with no unrest - provinces which were stable and happy for years. I specifically checked for unrest/devastation. It just doesn't seem related in the long run.

4) The "chance" parameter in descr_rebels.txt seems to have no effect.
I've personally experimented extensively with this field, it doesn't work the way one would expect.

Rebel popups are highly variable. After a few lucky years it's tempting to conclude that a particular solution is working. You might have to play another 50-100 years to see if the theory holds. On various occasions I myself subscribed to Fog-of-War theory, the Unrest theory, the Loyalty theory, etc. Yet each theory was blown away in turn, as additional gameplay disproved it.

Some more ideas I've tested:

5) family members prevent rebels?
No. I once had a rebel pop up 2 times in 4 turns right beside a city containing a family member. In both cases the rebels immediately lay seige to the city!

6) Troops in the countryside prevent rebels?
Not necessarily. I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up rather close to my big intimidating armies. I speculate that a grid of troops could surpress rebels by simply denying them places to pop up. This may work similar to planting forts, but cheaper.

Really, the only luck I've ever had was with extensive fortification of the "countryside". But it was time consuming and I couldn't figure out how to plug all the gaps in the dike.

[econ21]

Thanks, CyanCentaur. So from what we know so far, only the difficulty levels and fortifications both definitely affect rebellions (because CA have said so and it fits people's observations). The other possible factors seem disputed.

[player1]

1) Loyalty has no effect.
I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up in provinces with loyalty above 150%.

3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
I've seen rebels appear in provinces with no unrest - provinces which were stable and happy for years. I specifically checked for unrest/devastation. It just doesn't seem related in the long run.

And combo of these two?



EDIT:
Make notice that some province could look fair and safe (green loyalty, plu no unrest), but then comes the governor with trait that add jus +1unrest and makes rebellions problem again.

[locked_thread]

And combo of these two?

Yes, rebels even pop up in provinces with no unrest and very high loyalty.

Other theories I've discarded:
- squalor
- cultural unhappiness
- duration of control
- presence of enemy spies
- distance to capital
- presence/absence of specific city improvements
- recent battles in the area
- death of faction leader
- influence rating of faction leader
- influence rating of city governor
- transition between city sizes
- trade volume on local road network
- city population
- city growth rate
- rate at which troops are trained.
- size of total city garrison
- size of nearby friendly armies
- size of nearby hostile armies

Yes, I've been studying this problem for some time...

Given the extensive and redundant overcomplication of other game features (ex VnVs), it wouldn't surprise me if the code references 10 or more hidden triggers for rebel popups.

Or rebel popups could be purely random, hard as that may be to accept.

[Big-T]

Yes, rebels even pop up in provinces with no unrest and very high loyalty.

Other theories I've discarded:
- squalor
- cultural unhappiness
- duration of control
- presence of enemy spies
- distance to capital
- presence/absence of specific city improvements
- recent battles in the area
- death of faction leader
- influence rating of faction leader
- influence rating of city governor
- transition between city sizes
- trade volume on local road network
- city population
- city growth rate
- rate at which troops are trained.
- size of total city garrison
- size of nearby friendly armies
- size of nearby hostile armies

Yes, I've been studying this problem for some time...

Given the extensive and redundant overcomplication of other game features (ex VnVs), it wouldn't surprise me if the code references 10 or more hidden triggers for rebel popups.

Or rebel popups could be purely random, hard as that may be to accept.

Wow, that's quite a list!

If I may add my .02, I recently noticed an increase in rebel activity when I started turning down a bunch of suitors. (Normal/Normal, v1.2) I wish I could remember where, but I seem to recall reading in a guide or readme that when they are turned down the potential suitors "become" rebels. The meaning I understood when reading it was that it significantly increases the chance for a rebel horde to pop up in that area on that next turn.

Anyone else notice this??

-T

[Oaty]

From my observations, rebels seem to be like bunny rabbits. If you don't supress the rebels in 1-2 turns the chances for more rebels seems to increase. I believe there is a factor in the game that takes into count how many rebels you have on your lands and if theres quite few rebel armies they will multiply quickly. As soon as you supress all rebel armies the rate of thier appearance seems to go down too.

Also the northlands seem to be a natural breeding ground for them. I rarely ever see rebels in Africa but quite often in the barbarian lands. Maybe the starting descr strat has a factor in there wether the land is of barbarian origin.

[locked_thread]

I think I finally discovered what triggers rebels/brigands: peace.

I recently played a Brutii campaign, tallying battles fought. I hunted every bandit I spotted, and tracked those battles in a separate column. To my surprise very few bandits appeared. When I quit the campaign, I controlled 40 cities; I had fought roughly 60 battles against factions, but only around 20 against bandits.

This seemed different from my experiences playing Julii and Gaul. Yet my Brutii had built not one single fort, and only a modest amount of watchtowers. Population happiness was mediocre at best; I even enslaved entire populations.

The campaign was characterized by lots of hard fighting against Macedonians, etc, with few breaks in between. Late in the campaign I got bored storming walls and let starvation do the work. Bandit popups increased during that period. Coincidence?

Then I started an Egyptian campaign, and again I tallied battles. This time the bandits were back with a vengeance. Right away I fended off around 20 bandit stacks, one after the next. In about 20(?) turns I was hit with roughly the same number as the entire Brutii campaign. Then the Seleucids invaded... AND BANDITRY CAME TO A SCREECHING HALT. Woah! I was still fighting about 1 battle per turn, but against Seleucids instead of bandits.

I only noticed this pattern because I tallied every battle I fought. Previously I speculated that battles trigger banditry. The opposite is true. BATTLES SCARE BANDITS. The fewer faction battles you fight, the more bandits you will see.

Comments?

[pezhetairoi]

in the absence of any other possible reason I could possibly come up with that holds water, I can only say you've probably hit it on the head.

[sunsmountain]

I've noticed that closing up your border to your neighbours with forts has a side effect that rebels no longer appear. I've only tested this with the seleucids so far, simply building up their empire to level 5 before conquering.

But it may also have been due to the fact that i didnt conquer a lot of new settlements. Perhaps that has something to do with it, also consider the possibility that the influence of unrest doesnt have to be local: If one your towns suffers unrest, another can suffer the rebels caused by that.

Hope this helps.

[gardibolt]

I haven't done any rigorous testing so this is all anecdotal, but the campaign I'm playing would support CyanCentaur's theory. I've been fighting as the Julii with waves of attacking on three fronts, then consolidating my gains for 2-4 turns and then attacking again.

In turns where I consolidate and when I'm only besieging but not actually fighting battles, rebels appear in what were Gaul and Spain, and less frequently Asia Minor. In turns after I've been fighting and exterminating, the rebels don't tend to show up much (though I'm not sure I've ever had a turn with zero rebels, there are noticeably fewer). Maybe the game is trying to make sure you have someone to fight every turn?

[locked_thread]

I just finished my Egyptian campaign. (Well ok I quit after 47 territories). Throughout the campaign I continued to track battles vs bandits separately.

So far, my theory seems to hold up. During any lull in the fighting, bandits would pop up like crazy. But as long as the fighting was continuous, banditry was held to a minimum.

Bandits seemed to be randomly allocated across the entire map, without regard to happiness, governor, growth, buildings, etc. Thus large sprawling provinces tend to get extra bandits. I expect there's a bandit generation routine that gets called every turn. Bandits are randomly strewn across the map as a whole. Before placing a bandit, it notes the province containing the bandit's pending location. If the province's owner fought a battle this turn, the new bandit is cancelled. The bandit would also be cancelled if the location is illegal - ie any location on/adjacent to a unit. Since forts contain units, they block bandits over a 3x3 grid. This has practical significance only if your empire is small.

PS: I sincerely hope the developers correct this annoyance in future releases.... or maybe retitle the product line "Total Banditry"?

[womble]

Totally anecdotal, I'm afraid, but my experiences in a Julian Imperial campaign are contrary to CyanCentaur's theory of idleness/peace. I had a long period of peace with very infrequent Rebel appearances, which I put down to stringent policing efforts, having suspected that rebel begat rebel early in the campaign. I had *never* managed to eradicate all rebels, however, with at least one new one popping up far enough away from ny reaction force that I couldn't kill it before the next one spawned.

Then the Civil War started, with at least one battle or siege a turn, and the rebels started getting out of hand again... Partly because my reaction forces had been sent to the front, I guess, but they seemed to realise I was stretched and tried to take advantage.

[locked_thread]

"I had *never* managed to eradicate all rebels, however, with at least one new one popping up far enough away from ny reaction force that I couldn't kill it before the next one spawned."
-- Nonetheless I predict you would have zero if you fought a faction battle every turn.

"....at least one battle or siege a turn, and the rebels started getting out of hand again..."
-- Unfortunately, seiges have no effect on brigand popups. And, with a big empire, it only takes a single turn to spawn multiple brigands. After a couple turns of seige warfare, you can easily get 10 or 15 brigands, especially if you don't start hunting them down immediately.
Hmm, I should take more data and post it....

[Ness]

Hello.

I remember first campaign with 1.2 patch playing parthia, I been in peace with all faction and long time no see any rebels, later they start to popping out but I think AI faction declares war on my first then rebels emerge. Ok, now playing rtr with romans, conquer only Italy (without Sicily) in 60 years (120 turns) and only war with gauls. Rebels popping out every turn (all towns above 100% h., no fog on my territory). 3 roads connect my provinces with gauls provinces, 2 roads connect my provinces with Ilirians provinces. I going to build forts in roads who connecting my provinces with gauls and leave alone roads who connect to Ilirians. Now I going to test if I can stop or reduce frequency of rebels with forts.

[SMZ]

Just throwing in my input:

I have been playing a campaign marked by extremely rapid expansion. The year is 259 BC (21 or 22 turns I believe) and I have conquered 39 provinces and fought 70 some battles. Thus far I can only recall about three rebels popping up. I had attributed this to my lowering the Campaign Difficulty to Hard instead of Very Hard. This may however be viewed as supportive data for CyanCentaur's theory. I have not kept track of the number of rebels, but I am sure that it has been a bare handful. I am having a difficult time trying to think of more than three instances.

Hope this is of some assitance in your research. Pz.