Research: what causes rebels to appear?

[player1]

Well my experience (but no real proof) says that provinces that have green loyalty AND zero unrest will gain no rebels.

For example in my last Julii campaing I don't remember having any rebels in my central italian provinces (which had green loyalty and no unrest).

But I do remember getting rebels in provinces with yellow loyaly, or in province that are green but have unrest levels.

[Jambo]

I'm almost certain unrest levels are related to rebel uprisings.

[locked_thread]

Interesting, but it would be useful to indicate the source/status of these statements.

Personal research....

1) Loyalty has no effect.
I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up in provinces with loyalty above 150%.

2) Fog of war has no effect.
I spent two very long campaigns researching this premise. I rigorously built watchtowers everywhere. Not one scrap of my land was invisible. Yet rebels would pop up, even on top of watchtowers.

3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
I've seen rebels appear in provinces with no unrest - provinces which were stable and happy for years. I specifically checked for unrest/devastation. It just doesn't seem related in the long run.

4) The "chance" parameter in descr_rebels.txt seems to have no effect.
I've personally experimented extensively with this field, it doesn't work the way one would expect.

Rebel popups are highly variable. After a few lucky years it's tempting to conclude that a particular solution is working. You might have to play another 50-100 years to see if the theory holds. On various occasions I myself subscribed to Fog-of-War theory, the Unrest theory, the Loyalty theory, etc. Yet each theory was blown away in turn, as additional gameplay disproved it.

Some more ideas I've tested:

5) family members prevent rebels?
No. I once had a rebel pop up 2 times in 4 turns right beside a city containing a family member. In both cases the rebels immediately lay seige to the city!

6) Troops in the countryside prevent rebels?
Not necessarily. I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up rather close to my big intimidating armies. I speculate that a grid of troops could surpress rebels by simply denying them places to pop up. This may work similar to planting forts, but cheaper.

Really, the only luck I've ever had was with extensive fortification of the "countryside". But it was time consuming and I couldn't figure out how to plug all the gaps in the dike.

[econ21]

Thanks, CyanCentaur. So from what we know so far, only the difficulty levels and fortifications both definitely affect rebellions (because CA have said so and it fits people's observations). The other possible factors seem disputed.

[player1]

1) Loyalty has no effect.
I've repeatedly seen rebels pop up in provinces with loyalty above 150%.

3) Unrest appears to have no effect.
I've seen rebels appear in provinces with no unrest - provinces which were stable and happy for years. I specifically checked for unrest/devastation. It just doesn't seem related in the long run.

And combo of these two?



EDIT:
Make notice that some province could look fair and safe (green loyalty, plu no unrest), but then comes the governor with trait that add jus +1unrest and makes rebellions problem again.

[locked_thread]

And combo of these two?

Yes, rebels even pop up in provinces with no unrest and very high loyalty.

Other theories I've discarded:
- squalor
- cultural unhappiness
- duration of control
- presence of enemy spies
- distance to capital
- presence/absence of specific city improvements
- recent battles in the area
- death of faction leader
- influence rating of faction leader
- influence rating of city governor
- transition between city sizes
- trade volume on local road network
- city population
- city growth rate
- rate at which troops are trained.
- size of total city garrison
- size of nearby friendly armies
- size of nearby hostile armies

Yes, I've been studying this problem for some time...

Given the extensive and redundant overcomplication of other game features (ex VnVs), it wouldn't surprise me if the code references 10 or more hidden triggers for rebel popups.

Or rebel popups could be purely random, hard as that may be to accept.

[Big-T]

Yes, rebels even pop up in provinces with no unrest and very high loyalty.

Other theories I've discarded:
- squalor
- cultural unhappiness
- duration of control
- presence of enemy spies
- distance to capital
- presence/absence of specific city improvements
- recent battles in the area
- death of faction leader
- influence rating of faction leader
- influence rating of city governor
- transition between city sizes
- trade volume on local road network
- city population
- city growth rate
- rate at which troops are trained.
- size of total city garrison
- size of nearby friendly armies
- size of nearby hostile armies

Yes, I've been studying this problem for some time...

Given the extensive and redundant overcomplication of other game features (ex VnVs), it wouldn't surprise me if the code references 10 or more hidden triggers for rebel popups.

Or rebel popups could be purely random, hard as that may be to accept.

Wow, that's quite a list!

If I may add my .02, I recently noticed an increase in rebel activity when I started turning down a bunch of suitors. (Normal/Normal, v1.2) I wish I could remember where, but I seem to recall reading in a guide or readme that when they are turned down the potential suitors "become" rebels. The meaning I understood when reading it was that it significantly increases the chance for a rebel horde to pop up in that area on that next turn.

Anyone else notice this??

-T

[Oaty]

From my observations, rebels seem to be like bunny rabbits. If you don't supress the rebels in 1-2 turns the chances for more rebels seems to increase. I believe there is a factor in the game that takes into count how many rebels you have on your lands and if theres quite few rebel armies they will multiply quickly. As soon as you supress all rebel armies the rate of thier appearance seems to go down too.

Also the northlands seem to be a natural breeding ground for them. I rarely ever see rebels in Africa but quite often in the barbarian lands. Maybe the starting descr strat has a factor in there wether the land is of barbarian origin.