That saber rattling is getting louder...

[Don Corleone]

I'm actually very pro-China, in economic & cultural issues at least. I understand a certain amount of 'tough talk' is just par for the course from Beijing. But this seems a bit over the top. It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too. Read this link and tell me what you think:
Is China prepared to go nuclear?
What I take from this, and granted, I may be misreading it, is that China is saying "we're getting ready to attack Taiwan. If the US stands with them, we're prepared to nuke the US". Am I overreacting?

[lars573]

I serioulsy doubt China is ready to nukclear. They have to know that MAD applies. But if they landed 200,000 troops in Taiwan and dug in their is little the US could do to dislodge them.

[discovery1]

I serioulsy doubt China is ready to nukclear. They have to know that MAD applies. But if they landed 200,000 troops in Taiwan and dug in their is little the US could do to dislodge them.

Sink the worthless Chinese navy and wait?

I seriously doubt that China is about to launch an attack against Tawain, or even in the next 10 years. Maybe after. What's China's sealift capability?


Maybe we should remind them of what a large chunk of their economy is dependent on trade with the us? Although I suspect they will at least act as if they don't care. Don't they get a lot of food from the US?

[lars573]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

[Kagemusha]

quote from washington post:"These people are building ships like nobody´s business,"a military attache in Beijing said."Its mind-bogling."
Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months,including a number of landing craft,and China is concidering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Soveremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns,he added.More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or allready purchased,adding to the four bought several years ago."

Chinese arent just babling about invading Taiwan.They are preparing for it.

[Papewaio]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

The island of Taiwan lies some 200 km off the southeastern coast of China across the Taiwan Strait

There are other smaller Taiwanese islands even closer to China.

[lars573]

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

So I made a wild and erronious estimate, give me a warning them.

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

[Kagemusha]

I dont believe that in a totaliarian system like China an highranking official just burst that kind of statements from his mouth.Im pretty sure they are for real.Taiwan is a thorne on Chinas flesh and they see it as an rebellious province that needs to be taken.How ever with US backing Taiwan up they really dont have the muscle to take it with conventional measures.Chinese arent stupid and they know that nuclear war cant be won.So i say this is an terrible bluf.
Im pretty worried that EU is thinking to pull off the weapons sell ban to China.Because when and if China gets modern weapons enough they are trying to take Taiwan by force.If not,they will get frustrated.Worst case scenario could even be that they Nuke Taiwan.

[PanzerJaeger]

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

We've gotten selfish and made a deal with the devil in terms of trade and hopefully it wont come back to bite us in the ass. Wouldnt that be irony if they funded such a war with all the money we've been pumping into their economy?

kagemusha brought up a good point about the european weapon ban. If europe starts selling China weapons, we will seriously have to consider key alliances.

[Roark]

I suspect that China will take Taiwan eventually... Bluffs will be called, but China and the States won't screw with each other on a large scale, militarily. No one wants a nuclear war in this situation.

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

[Papewaio]

Don't forget that Japan is an ally of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets attacked then Japan gets involved then USA gets involved and then the ANZUS alliance gets activated.

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

[Roark]

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

Neither does Howard. That $50 billion deal is gravy for our industry. If there's one thing Howard cares about, it's Australian primary industries. (See: Kyoto Agreement)

I would be proud of little Johnny if he had the guts to do it, though...

[Productivity]

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

China hasn't been a communist nation for the last decade. Totalitarian maybe, evil and nasty maybe, but they are hardly true communists anymore.

[Proletariat]

Where is the 'Nuclear Armed Countries from Asia make bizarre insults/threats all the time with regard to international affairs and although they seem random, there is a method to the madness' option?

[PanzerJaeger]

Which nation was ever truly communist?

I should have said: Any nation that identifies itself as communist is a threat to America.

[Proletariat]

Which nation was ever truly communist?

I should have said: Any nation that identifies itself as communist is a threat to America.

You really believe that? Stop drinking the kool aid, for just once in your life, PJ.

[Louis VI the Fat]

It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too.

Not anytime soon, I think. It's too early for China to confront the US over a major issue like this. It will take a few decades still.
But they're a patient bunch and they know that at their current rate of growth they will overtake the west at some point. Face it, there's 1.3 billion of them. North America, the EU and Japan combined have barely three-quarters of that.

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

Make that 'a threat to every freedom-loving nation' and we agree on something for a change!

[KukriKhan]

With bmolsson on this one :"China is trouble...."

I'm no Sinophobe, just haven't seen much in the past 40 years that leads me to believe RedChinese leadership is interested in anything more than securing its own position. Taiwan seen as a threat?: make big noise. Tiananmen Square?: roll the tanks. If we can just keep them quiet for 15-20 more years (until the Mao generation dies out) we might get somewhere with the people of the Peoples Republic of China.

Meanwhile, take the sabre-rattling seriously.

[lars573]

Longer than that probably. Mao, who's generation was the same as Hitler and Stalin died long ago. Were now dealing with "the great leap forward" and "cultural revolution" generations in China. When the Tiananmen generation gets to power. Then maybe, 20 years or so.

[JimBob]

with bmolsson and Kukri, China has this really bad habit of making ilegitamate claims to ownership of an area, marching in, facing resistance and burning stuff down and killing alot of people (see Tibet and East Turkmenistan). Right now China doesn't have the ability to take Taiwan, their navy is too small, and their airforce is not top notch. The Taiwanese are an island and know it and have developed an elite, if somewhat small, navy and air force, those are there only real hopes to save themselves, because if China gains a foot hold the island is small enough that it won't hold long. as to us involvment, we better protect Taiwan, there are two Chinas and the US better defend the democratic one from the despotic one

[Samurai Waki]

Attacking Taiwan wouldn't be a good move for China right now, or pretty much anytime in the future, Taiwan isn't some backwater Island full of lawless native tribes. Taiwan has a very sophisticated military, an almost impregnable defense, even if China were to try and land 200,000 men on the Island, I think they'd all have to kiss their own asses good-bye after thousands upon thousands were cut to pieces under heavy machine gun and artillery fire, it would be like Omaha beach gone wrong. Forget Landing Special Forces in Taiwan as well, they have a very good radar defense system, and a capable airforce, it would probably end up like the Yom-Kippur War all over again, except it's not Israel vs. the Middle East. I think short of launching a few nukes at Taiwan (which would be beyond the point) China is just going to continueing have a bone of contention with them. Tough Words are shallow, Talk Softly and Carry a Big Stick is the foreign policy a country should be scared of.

[Red Harvest]

I'm actually very pro-China, in economic & cultural issues at least. I understand a certain amount of 'tough talk' is just par for the course from Beijing. But this seems a bit over the top. It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too. Read this link and tell me what you think:

It's similar to stuff I've seen reported over the years. There are various incindiary statements in the Chinese Army newspapers and the like. Never let your guard down with China though, and don't underestimate them.

(Off topic: I still can't believe that idiot landed his P-3 at a Chinese air base, the P-3 guys I know were very upset by that. It should have been ditched at sea.)