That saber rattling is getting louder...

[lars573]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

[Kagemusha]

quote from washington post:"These people are building ships like nobody´s business,"a military attache in Beijing said."Its mind-bogling."
Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months,including a number of landing craft,and China is concidering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Soveremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns,he added.More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or allready purchased,adding to the four bought several years ago."

Chinese arent just babling about invading Taiwan.They are preparing for it.

[Papewaio]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

The island of Taiwan lies some 200 km off the southeastern coast of China across the Taiwan Strait

There are other smaller Taiwanese islands even closer to China.

[lars573]

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

So I made a wild and erronious estimate, give me a warning them.

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

[Don Corleone]

So I made a wild and erronious estimate, give me a warning them.

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

I don't think I'd speak with any tone of certainty about what the PLA has and does not have, were I you. It's not as though they're going to announce they have 2 divisions of combat ready marines at their disposal once they get them. This is one of those often forgotten lessons of WWII when everyone thought they knew exactly what Germany's capabilities were, and then, surprise surprise, SHAZAM!

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

it's not just China that's building up its military, it seems like the whole of east Asia is doing that.

Japan is a good example of a friendly(to the west) country that's suddenly decided to get a decent military.

[Don Corleone]

it's not just China that's building up its military, it seems like the whole of east Asia is doing that.

Japan is a good example of a friendly(to the west) country that's suddenly decided to get a decent military.

Facing what they face, and the diplomacy as sour as it is, can you blame them? Don't think the Chinese have forgotten the Japanese holiday in Manchuria. They HATE the Japanese, and would overrun the islands in a heartbeat if they thought they could. This is pretty universal, from what I could determine. It's to the point where my company will not allow our Japanese employees to travel to China, even on business for Japanese companies that are opening shop in China (such as Panasonic). They know if they send Japanese sales guys over, the deal will be nixed.

[Pindar]

China doesn't have the logistical/military capability to take Taiwan at the moment.

China is building their first blue water navy, but Chinese jingoism is more designed to focus the domestic agenda away from the massive problems that come from trying to maintain a fascist regime in the face or modernization.

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

I don't blame them at all.
I think that area is in general tooling up for a big fight.

The Japanese, Koreans (both), Taiwanese and Chinese are all doing it.

There's plenty of scope for the s**t to hit the fan, not just over Taiwan.
I don't blame everyone for doing what they are doing.

[Roark]

Yeah, Sino-Japanese relations are at a real low. I read an article this morning which said that Chinese restauranteurs now quiz Japanese patrons about the atrocities in Nanking, and only serve them food if they apologise on behalf of the Japanese goverment...

[PanzerJaeger]

Well, this is a chicken & egg argument Panzer. The United States has made no secret of the fact that it views any government that goes communist illegitimate and will actively work against it. I'm not saying that to be unpatrioitic, it's a fact. Nicaragua (Ortega) didn't want to be Castro's buttboy, but antagonism by Ford & neglect by Carter gave them few options but to sign on with him.

The argument isnt who started it, but whether communist countries are a threat to America..

[Papewaio]

If I was going to use only conventional force to attack Taiwan it would include an attack at the two main north south train lines on the west coast and central Taiwan. A lot of the distance is single tracks.

A surprise attack using a cargo ship filled with commandos on Taichung Harbour (Wuchi) would bisect the country and give easy access to a major power plant. Taichung itself would be harder to get to as their is a major ridge between the harbour and the city. However the rice plains and the dense suburbs on the coast would be very prone to attack. As would the major north south high way to strikes (as the highway in places is on 20m on concrete pylons.

I would also land paratroopers at the military/commericial airport in Taichung. This would then allow more troops and craft to fly in.

Taiwan is tiny, as such it is vulnerable. However I do not think that a country of over 24 million should be given in appeasement to China.

[Productivity]

Put it this way, if I was in Taiwan at the moment I'd be thinking about a relocation. It may not happen, but it's enough of a chance that I don't want to be anywhere near it when it happens.

[King of Atlantis]

It's hard to tell what china will do, but they might just do it. The whole thought is scary as it could end up making a major war.


btw, Isnt tawian the real china and china the un-rulely province.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

Unless China wants a few million less people, I doubt they'd have the balls to attack Taiwan.
Oh, and if World War Three starts, the world will have, at least, one billion less people.

[Kagemusha]

I have this plea for US government.If world war three begins.If you have to shoot Russia with those ballistic missiles,please dont shoot St.Petersburg.Because if you do,you will also kill us Finns too.

[Ironside]

Unless China wants a few million less people, I doubt they'd have the balls to attack Taiwan.

Actually, I suspect that a few million people would be acceptable losses for China.
Losing a billion people would scare them off though.

[sharrukin]

Don't forget that Japan is an ally of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets attacked then Japan gets involved then USA gets involved and then the ANZUS alliance gets activated.

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

Would Japan actually intervene with ground troops?

Step one;
Invade Taiwan

Step two;
Wait ten years

Step three;
Everything back to normal

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

The Chinese would probably not use their marine force in the assault. We seem to be assuming that an invasion requires marines and yet we managed a fairly big one at Normandy in June of 1944, without any marines. The PLA army practices amphibious assaults. The marine force is more similar to Britain concept of marines rather than America's.

China's amphibious assault capabilities are from a western perspective very limited. This however is not the whole story, as China is not a western nation and will not make war in such a way. The Americans made that mistake in Vietnam which according to all the theories should have been an American victory. According to western experts China can currently only transport 1 armored or 3 infantry brigades with its amphibious ships, which would be completely inadequate for an attack on Taiwan.

The PLA Officers Handbook however tells a different story and one we should listen to. This reference book, is not classified and is sold openly to PLA officers who are required to purchase it at their own expense. It indicates that an attack will be done in a Chinese fashion, rather than an American or western fashion. Smaller amphibious craft are often not considered by western experts and this is potentially a bad mistake. The PLA Navy according to their own doctrine would use these hundreds of smaller landing craft, barges, and troop transports, all of which could be used together with fishing boats, trawlers, and civilian merchant ships to augment the naval amphibious fleet.

The Type 067 Yunnan LCM 240+ The Handbook gives the Type 067 a capacity of 50 tons, a range of 800 kilometers, endurance of ten days at sea, and the ability to operate in rough water while using its own navigation system.
The Type 271 and improved Type 271-II, the Chinese claim to have several hundred.
The Type 068/069 Yuchin/Yuchai

The Handbook indicates that there is sufficient lift for about 250 infantry, and mechanized (tank and mechanized infantry) battalions. This does not include commercial shipping which could be dragooned into moving support equipment and supplies to maintain the offensive. The western militaries call this STUFT, Ships Taken Up From Trade. This is what happened in the case of the Falklands War where no friendly base was close at hand, it required the Royal Navy taking up some fifty-four ships and it worked very well. According to the 1995 international ship registry society records, China had about 1,700 existing merchantmen of 1,000 tons or above, with a total freight volume above 3 million tons, [the world's fifth place]. Most of the units will obviously be infantry, but given the 4000+ aircraft of the Chinese air force this force would fare well against the Taiwanese army. Local air superiority would count for a lot and it would be weeks before American air presence in Okinawa would have much effect.

The price they would pay for Taiwan would be considerable and IMO they are unlikely to actually stage an invasion but they are more capable than we might think.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

Actually, I suspect that a few million people would be acceptable losses for China.
Losing a billion people would scare them off though.

A few million meaning in the neighborhood of 400 to 500 million at first, then an additional 100 to 200 million in non-nuclear warfare related casualties, then an additional 100 to 200 million in other causes. So that's 600 to 900 million.