That saber rattling is getting louder...

[Don Corleone]

I'm actually very pro-China, in economic & cultural issues at least. I understand a certain amount of 'tough talk' is just par for the course from Beijing. But this seems a bit over the top. It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too. Read this link and tell me what you think:
Is China prepared to go nuclear?
What I take from this, and granted, I may be misreading it, is that China is saying "we're getting ready to attack Taiwan. If the US stands with them, we're prepared to nuke the US". Am I overreacting?

[lars573]

I serioulsy doubt China is ready to nukclear. They have to know that MAD applies. But if they landed 200,000 troops in Taiwan and dug in their is little the US could do to dislodge them.

[Kagemusha]

I dont believe that in a totaliarian system like China an highranking official just burst that kind of statements from his mouth.Im pretty sure they are for real.Taiwan is a thorne on Chinas flesh and they see it as an rebellious province that needs to be taken.How ever with US backing Taiwan up they really dont have the muscle to take it with conventional measures.Chinese arent stupid and they know that nuclear war cant be won.So i say this is an terrible bluf.
Im pretty worried that EU is thinking to pull off the weapons sell ban to China.Because when and if China gets modern weapons enough they are trying to take Taiwan by force.If not,they will get frustrated.Worst case scenario could even be that they Nuke Taiwan.

[PanzerJaeger]

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

We've gotten selfish and made a deal with the devil in terms of trade and hopefully it wont come back to bite us in the ass. Wouldnt that be irony if they funded such a war with all the money we've been pumping into their economy?

kagemusha brought up a good point about the european weapon ban. If europe starts selling China weapons, we will seriously have to consider key alliances.

[discovery1]

I serioulsy doubt China is ready to nukclear. They have to know that MAD applies. But if they landed 200,000 troops in Taiwan and dug in their is little the US could do to dislodge them.

Sink the worthless Chinese navy and wait?

I seriously doubt that China is about to launch an attack against Tawain, or even in the next 10 years. Maybe after. What's China's sealift capability?


Maybe we should remind them of what a large chunk of their economy is dependent on trade with the us? Although I suspect they will at least act as if they don't care. Don't they get a lot of food from the US?

[lars573]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

[Kagemusha]

quote from washington post:"These people are building ships like nobody´s business,"a military attache in Beijing said."Its mind-bogling."
Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months,including a number of landing craft,and China is concidering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Soveremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns,he added.More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or allready purchased,adding to the four bought several years ago."

Chinese arent just babling about invading Taiwan.They are preparing for it.

[Papewaio]

Realisticly China is years (10 or 15) from being able to threaten Taiwan. It's not like they only have to cross the english channel they have to cross like what 1000 km of open sea? Even airbourne units would be at the limit of their range getting to Taiwan. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of a marine force or ships to carry them.

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

The island of Taiwan lies some 200 km off the southeastern coast of China across the Taiwan Strait

There are other smaller Taiwanese islands even closer to China.

[Roark]

I suspect that China will take Taiwan eventually... Bluffs will be called, but China and the States won't screw with each other on a large scale, militarily. No one wants a nuclear war in this situation.

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

[Papewaio]

Don't forget that Japan is an ally of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets attacked then Japan gets involved then USA gets involved and then the ANZUS alliance gets activated.

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

[Louis VI the Fat]

It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too.

Not anytime soon, I think. It's too early for China to confront the US over a major issue like this. It will take a few decades still.
But they're a patient bunch and they know that at their current rate of growth they will overtake the west at some point. Face it, there's 1.3 billion of them. North America, the EU and Japan combined have barely three-quarters of that.

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

Make that 'a threat to every freedom-loving nation' and we agree on something for a change!

[Roark]

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

Neither does Howard. That $50 billion deal is gravy for our industry. If there's one thing Howard cares about, it's Australian primary industries. (See: Kyoto Agreement)

I would be proud of little Johnny if he had the guts to do it, though...

[Productivity]

Every communist nation is a threat to America.

China hasn't been a communist nation for the last decade. Totalitarian maybe, evil and nasty maybe, but they are hardly true communists anymore.

[Proletariat]

Where is the 'Nuclear Armed Countries from Asia make bizarre insults/threats all the time with regard to international affairs and although they seem random, there is a method to the madness' option?

[PanzerJaeger]

Which nation was ever truly communist?

I should have said: Any nation that identifies itself as communist is a threat to America.

[Proletariat]

Which nation was ever truly communist?

I should have said: Any nation that identifies itself as communist is a threat to America.

You really believe that? Stop drinking the kool aid, for just once in your life, PJ.

[PanzerJaeger]

You really believe that? Stop drinking the kool aid, for just once in your life, PJ.

Nice..

Which nation that has ever identified itself as communist has not been strategically against, or allied with nations that were strategically against America?

I cannot think of one "communist" nation that has ever been allied with, or even on friendly terms with America.

Things might be cooled off now, but trade agreements dont make China a friend.

[bmolsson]

China is trouble....

[Uesugi Kenshin]

China does, or should, realize that if it attacked Taiwan and the US retalliated it would be gone. China should not do anything to provoke US intervention even with the US military overextended (or already engaged, whatever you wish to call it).

[Don Corleone]

Interesting that nobody takes the Chinese at their word. The only one who thinks for certain that they want a fight is Bmolsson, and he picked the option that they're using Taiwan to bait the USA, not vice versa (willing to fight the US if they interfere in Taiwan). Is that what you really think Bmolsson, or did you & I just read the poll options differently.

[lars573]

No way is Taiwan a 1000km away from China.

Taiwan is about half the size of Tasmanina.

The island is 394 kilometers (245 miles) long and 144 kilometers (89 miles) wide and consists of steep mountains covered by tropical and subtropical vegetation

So I made a wild and erronious estimate, give me a warning them.

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

[Don Corleone]

Nice..

Which nation that has ever identified itself as communist has not been strategically against, or allied with nations that were strategically against America?

I cannot think of one "communist" nation that has ever been allied with, or even on friendly terms with America.

Things might be cooled off now, but trade agreements dont make China a friend.

Well, this is a chicken & egg argument Panzer. The United States has made no secret of the fact that it views any government that goes communist illegitimate and will actively work against it. I'm not saying that to be unpatrioitic, it's a fact. Nicaragua (Ortega) didn't want to be Castro's buttboy, but antagonism by Ford & neglect by Carter gave them few options but to sign on with him.

Sadly, if the US had never taken this "Communist=Stalinist" approach to foreign policy, we could have won the Cold War decades earlier.

[Don Corleone]

So I made a wild and erronious estimate, give me a warning them.

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

I don't think I'd speak with any tone of certainty about what the PLA has and does not have, were I you. It's not as though they're going to announce they have 2 divisions of combat ready marines at their disposal once they get them. This is one of those often forgotten lessons of WWII when everyone thought they knew exactly what Germany's capabilities were, and then, surprise surprise, SHAZAM!

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

it's not just China that's building up its military, it seems like the whole of east Asia is doing that.

Japan is a good example of a friendly(to the west) country that's suddenly decided to get a decent military.

[PanzerJaeger]

Well, this is a chicken & egg argument Panzer. The United States has made no secret of the fact that it views any government that goes communist illegitimate and will actively work against it. I'm not saying that to be unpatrioitic, it's a fact. Nicaragua (Ortega) didn't want to be Castro's buttboy, but antagonism by Ford & neglect by Carter gave them few options but to sign on with him.

The argument isnt who started it, but whether communist countries are a threat to America..

[Papewaio]

If I was going to use only conventional force to attack Taiwan it would include an attack at the two main north south train lines on the west coast and central Taiwan. A lot of the distance is single tracks.

A surprise attack using a cargo ship filled with commandos on Taichung Harbour (Wuchi) would bisect the country and give easy access to a major power plant. Taichung itself would be harder to get to as their is a major ridge between the harbour and the city. However the rice plains and the dense suburbs on the coast would be very prone to attack. As would the major north south high way to strikes (as the highway in places is on 20m on concrete pylons.

I would also land paratroopers at the military/commericial airport in Taichung. This would then allow more troops and craft to fly in.

Taiwan is tiny, as such it is vulnerable. However I do not think that a country of over 24 million should be given in appeasement to China.

[Productivity]

Put it this way, if I was in Taiwan at the moment I'd be thinking about a relocation. It may not happen, but it's enough of a chance that I don't want to be anywhere near it when it happens.

[King of Atlantis]

It's hard to tell what china will do, but they might just do it. The whole thought is scary as it could end up making a major war.


btw, Isnt tawian the real china and china the un-rulely province.

[Don Corleone]

it's not just China that's building up its military, it seems like the whole of east Asia is doing that.

Japan is a good example of a friendly(to the west) country that's suddenly decided to get a decent military.

Facing what they face, and the diplomacy as sour as it is, can you blame them? Don't think the Chinese have forgotten the Japanese holiday in Manchuria. They HATE the Japanese, and would overrun the islands in a heartbeat if they thought they could. This is pretty universal, from what I could determine. It's to the point where my company will not allow our Japanese employees to travel to China, even on business for Japanese companies that are opening shop in China (such as Panasonic). They know if they send Japanese sales guys over, the deal will be nixed.

[Pindar]

China doesn't have the logistical/military capability to take Taiwan at the moment.

China is building their first blue water navy, but Chinese jingoism is more designed to focus the domestic agenda away from the massive problems that come from trying to maintain a fascist regime in the face or modernization.