Quote Originally Posted by Papewaio
Don't forget that Japan is an ally of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets attacked then Japan gets involved then USA gets involved and then the ANZUS alliance gets activated.

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.
Would Japan actually intervene with ground troops?

Step one;
Invade Taiwan

Step two;
Wait ten years

Step three;
Everything back to normal

Quote Originally Posted by lars573
Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.
The Chinese would probably not use their marine force in the assault. We seem to be assuming that an invasion requires marines and yet we managed a fairly big one at Normandy in June of 1944, without any marines. The PLA army practices amphibious assaults. The marine force is more similar to Britain concept of marines rather than America's.

China's amphibious assault capabilities are from a western perspective very limited. This however is not the whole story, as China is not a western nation and will not make war in such a way. The Americans made that mistake in Vietnam which according to all the theories should have been an American victory. According to western experts China can currently only transport 1 armored or 3 infantry brigades with its amphibious ships, which would be completely inadequate for an attack on Taiwan.

The PLA Officers Handbook however tells a different story and one we should listen to. This reference book, is not classified and is sold openly to PLA officers who are required to purchase it at their own expense. It indicates that an attack will be done in a Chinese fashion, rather than an American or western fashion. Smaller amphibious craft are often not considered by western experts and this is potentially a bad mistake. The PLA Navy according to their own doctrine would use these hundreds of smaller landing craft, barges, and troop transports, all of which could be used together with fishing boats, trawlers, and civilian merchant ships to augment the naval amphibious fleet.

The Type 067 Yunnan LCM 240+ The Handbook gives the Type 067 a capacity of 50 tons, a range of 800 kilometers, endurance of ten days at sea, and the ability to operate in rough water while using its own navigation system.
The Type 271 and improved Type 271-II, the Chinese claim to have several hundred.
The Type 068/069 Yuchin/Yuchai

The Handbook indicates that there is sufficient lift for about 250 infantry, and mechanized (tank and mechanized infantry) battalions. This does not include commercial shipping which could be dragooned into moving support equipment and supplies to maintain the offensive. The western militaries call this STUFT, Ships Taken Up From Trade. This is what happened in the case of the Falklands War where no friendly base was close at hand, it required the Royal Navy taking up some fifty-four ships and it worked very well. According to the 1995 international ship registry society records, China had about 1,700 existing merchantmen of 1,000 tons or above, with a total freight volume above 3 million tons, [the world's fifth place]. Most of the units will obviously be infantry, but given the 4000+ aircraft of the Chinese air force this force would fare well against the Taiwanese army. Local air superiority would count for a lot and it would be weeks before American air presence in Okinawa would have much effect.

The price they would pay for Taiwan would be considerable and IMO they are unlikely to actually stage an invasion but they are more capable than we might think.