That saber rattling is getting louder...

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

I don't blame them at all.
I think that area is in general tooling up for a big fight.

The Japanese, Koreans (both), Taiwanese and Chinese are all doing it.

There's plenty of scope for the s**t to hit the fan, not just over Taiwan.
I don't blame everyone for doing what they are doing.

[Roark]

Yeah, Sino-Japanese relations are at a real low. I read an article this morning which said that Chinese restauranteurs now quiz Japanese patrons about the atrocities in Nanking, and only serve them food if they apologise on behalf of the Japanese goverment...

[Azi Tohak]

Don't forget what the experts say guys: "There won't be another force on force confrontation. Terrorism and police work will rule the future."

Mind if I throw the bulls**t flag on that one? China scares me. I work with a few Taiwanese grad students on campus and not one of them believes China will just let them continue on. They believe the Chinese will eventually move. And that worries them. But remember, it is not as though Taiwan is defenseless itself. There are 24 million people, and I daresay 99% of them hate the Chinese as much as the Chinese hate them. 24 million people defending there home would be a hell of a task for anyone to conquor, even without our support.

But what support could we give? Sure, we can move fleets into position to provide air cover, but the island is not really suited for the current US military anyway. Lousy tank country as it were.

I am more curious what the French, Germans, Russians and especially Britain thinks about this. I don't know how strong their connections with Far East Asia are, but I can't help but think none of them are a fan of China taking Taiwan either. And let's be honest, China would have to have cojones of steel to want to take on Taiwan, the USA, Japan (you KNOW they would get involved), along with Britain, France, Germany, and Russia.

Humm...come to think of it, I know the pathway between the countries is hardly nice to military formations, but what about India? I know India and China don't like each other either, and there are the huge Himalayas between them, but it seems to me India could be helpful too. But then, Pakistani threats would at least hold India for China.

Let me see...Chineses allies... Maybe Vietnam, but I don't know how close those countries are. Mongolia does not count (sorry to any Mongolians out there, you're too small and poor), along with all the -istans in Middle Asia. North Korea is just the 'turd in the punch bowl' for everyone in the region anyway. So I don't know if China would take on (what used to be) NATO to attack Taiwan. Maybe the best we can hope for is an unhappy detente.

I just pray I am right.

Azi

[KukriKhan]

With bmolsson on this one :"China is trouble...."

I'm no Sinophobe, just haven't seen much in the past 40 years that leads me to believe RedChinese leadership is interested in anything more than securing its own position. Taiwan seen as a threat?: make big noise. Tiananmen Square?: roll the tanks. If we can just keep them quiet for 15-20 more years (until the Mao generation dies out) we might get somewhere with the people of the Peoples Republic of China.

Meanwhile, take the sabre-rattling seriously.

[lars573]

Longer than that probably. Mao, who's generation was the same as Hitler and Stalin died long ago. Were now dealing with "the great leap forward" and "cultural revolution" generations in China. When the Tiananmen generation gets to power. Then maybe, 20 years or so.

[JimBob]

with bmolsson and Kukri, China has this really bad habit of making ilegitamate claims to ownership of an area, marching in, facing resistance and burning stuff down and killing alot of people (see Tibet and East Turkmenistan). Right now China doesn't have the ability to take Taiwan, their navy is too small, and their airforce is not top notch. The Taiwanese are an island and know it and have developed an elite, if somewhat small, navy and air force, those are there only real hopes to save themselves, because if China gains a foot hold the island is small enough that it won't hold long. as to us involvment, we better protect Taiwan, there are two Chinas and the US better defend the democratic one from the despotic one

[Samurai Waki]

Attacking Taiwan wouldn't be a good move for China right now, or pretty much anytime in the future, Taiwan isn't some backwater Island full of lawless native tribes. Taiwan has a very sophisticated military, an almost impregnable defense, even if China were to try and land 200,000 men on the Island, I think they'd all have to kiss their own asses good-bye after thousands upon thousands were cut to pieces under heavy machine gun and artillery fire, it would be like Omaha beach gone wrong. Forget Landing Special Forces in Taiwan as well, they have a very good radar defense system, and a capable airforce, it would probably end up like the Yom-Kippur War all over again, except it's not Israel vs. the Middle East. I think short of launching a few nukes at Taiwan (which would be beyond the point) China is just going to continueing have a bone of contention with them. Tough Words are shallow, Talk Softly and Carry a Big Stick is the foreign policy a country should be scared of.

[Red Harvest]

I'm actually very pro-China, in economic & cultural issues at least. I understand a certain amount of 'tough talk' is just par for the course from Beijing. But this seems a bit over the top. It sounds like they're warming up to strike Taiwan, and fairly soon too. Read this link and tell me what you think:

It's similar to stuff I've seen reported over the years. There are various incindiary statements in the Chinese Army newspapers and the like. Never let your guard down with China though, and don't underestimate them.

(Off topic: I still can't believe that idiot landed his P-3 at a Chinese air base, the P-3 guys I know were very upset by that. It should have been ditched at sea.)

[Kaiser of Arabia]

Unless China wants a few million less people, I doubt they'd have the balls to attack Taiwan.
Oh, and if World War Three starts, the world will have, at least, one billion less people.

[Kagemusha]

I have this plea for US government.If world war three begins.If you have to shoot Russia with those ballistic missiles,please dont shoot St.Petersburg.Because if you do,you will also kill us Finns too.

[Ironside]

Unless China wants a few million less people, I doubt they'd have the balls to attack Taiwan.

Actually, I suspect that a few million people would be acceptable losses for China.
Losing a billion people would scare them off though.

[sharrukin]

Don't forget that Japan is an ally of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets attacked then Japan gets involved then USA gets involved and then the ANZUS alliance gets activated.

I'm sure China does not want an Australian steel and gas embargo after all.

Would Japan actually intervene with ground troops?

Step one;
Invade Taiwan

Step two;
Wait ten years

Step three;
Everything back to normal

Any way the point I was making still stands. The PRC has only 1 brigade of marines. To take Taiwan they need at least a division or 2 of them. They have no capacity to transport the 200000 troops to take and hold Taiwan that they would need. They have no aircraft carriers, so any kind of air support would need to come from the main land. They don't have the destroyers or cruisers needed to escort and cover the troops ships from US forces of the 16th fleet based in Japan. Most of these things are however being planned. And will be deployed in the next decade or so.

The Chinese would probably not use their marine force in the assault. We seem to be assuming that an invasion requires marines and yet we managed a fairly big one at Normandy in June of 1944, without any marines. The PLA army practices amphibious assaults. The marine force is more similar to Britain concept of marines rather than America's.

China's amphibious assault capabilities are from a western perspective very limited. This however is not the whole story, as China is not a western nation and will not make war in such a way. The Americans made that mistake in Vietnam which according to all the theories should have been an American victory. According to western experts China can currently only transport 1 armored or 3 infantry brigades with its amphibious ships, which would be completely inadequate for an attack on Taiwan.

The PLA Officers Handbook however tells a different story and one we should listen to. This reference book, is not classified and is sold openly to PLA officers who are required to purchase it at their own expense. It indicates that an attack will be done in a Chinese fashion, rather than an American or western fashion. Smaller amphibious craft are often not considered by western experts and this is potentially a bad mistake. The PLA Navy according to their own doctrine would use these hundreds of smaller landing craft, barges, and troop transports, all of which could be used together with fishing boats, trawlers, and civilian merchant ships to augment the naval amphibious fleet.

The Type 067 Yunnan LCM 240+ The Handbook gives the Type 067 a capacity of 50 tons, a range of 800 kilometers, endurance of ten days at sea, and the ability to operate in rough water while using its own navigation system.
The Type 271 and improved Type 271-II, the Chinese claim to have several hundred.
The Type 068/069 Yuchin/Yuchai

The Handbook indicates that there is sufficient lift for about 250 infantry, and mechanized (tank and mechanized infantry) battalions. This does not include commercial shipping which could be dragooned into moving support equipment and supplies to maintain the offensive. The western militaries call this STUFT, Ships Taken Up From Trade. This is what happened in the case of the Falklands War where no friendly base was close at hand, it required the Royal Navy taking up some fifty-four ships and it worked very well. According to the 1995 international ship registry society records, China had about 1,700 existing merchantmen of 1,000 tons or above, with a total freight volume above 3 million tons, [the world's fifth place]. Most of the units will obviously be infantry, but given the 4000+ aircraft of the Chinese air force this force would fare well against the Taiwanese army. Local air superiority would count for a lot and it would be weeks before American air presence in Okinawa would have much effect.

The price they would pay for Taiwan would be considerable and IMO they are unlikely to actually stage an invasion but they are more capable than we might think.

[Kagemusha]

Did you guys know that when US was concentrating its troops for invasion on Iraq most of its troops were deployd on civilian gargo ships.If China is to occupie Taiwan only the spearhead will be deployed on Landig crafts.Though i believe that Taiwanese people cant be overrun just like it.Im sure they will give ferocios defence against invaders.

[Colovion]

China and the US.

Cold War

/take two

[Mount Suribachi]

re Japan: I thought their constitution forbids them from participating in military actions outside their borders/except in self defence. I don't take their participation as a given

China, if they keep on their present course, will invade Taiwan, just not yet. Not while Bush is in the Whitehouse. Maybe when they get another democrat President who is happy to take "campaign contributions" from Chinese *businessmen". And the EU, who are tripping over themselves in their eagerness to suck up to China, lift their arms ban. Hell, you only have to look at the major suckage Blair did when the Chinese PM visited a few years ago, disgusting :(

No, if they bide their time, keep up the sabre rattling, in conjunction with the greasing of western economies, which western nations will have the balls to stand up to them when war comes? I forsee Taiwan eventually becoming a 21st century Sudetenland, cast away by the international community in the name of appeasement and peace at all costs.

Regarding allies, China have recently developed new/upgraded jet fighters with Pakistan.

Their air force is yet another part of their military that is being upgraded. 3000 tactical fighters, granted many of them of the mig-21 vintage, but 300 flankers, the J-10 is now entering service.

And lets not forget the arms restrictions imposed on Taiwan. When they buy new fighters, China will often exert pressure on the selling nation (even the US) to limit the number of missiles sold as part of the package.

So far this year China have threatened military action against Japan and Taiwan, now they're threatening America with nukes. Not to mention the repression of hundreds of millions for political or religious reasons. Civilized modern nations don't behave like this, yet still the west insists on sucking up to China

[Red Harvest]

If China started firing nukes they would most likely get hit not only by the US, but by Russia and India as well.

[Samurai Waki]

A war like this, may Also Trigger the Russians from a slow decline into obscurity back into a considerable position of power. The Russians have no love for the Chinese either, during the Korean War, Russian Pilots who had to wear Chinese Fighter Suites and fly in Planes bearing The Chinese Standard, and take order from Chinese Commanders were Royally pissed, so pissed in fact that many considered defecting to the US at one time or another, but they did it anyway in the name of Communism. Now that the Soviet Union no longer exists, and Russia is in the Russian's best interest (especially in Siberia) we might see a gradual softening of diplomatic and trade relations between the US and Russia. Mr. Putin made it very clear that he didn't like North Korea, and if the North Koreans invaded South Korea, we could well expect a Russian backlash. If China invades Taiwan, and no War broke out between the US and China, we could well expect to see a reinvigorated Russian Army and Airforce, because where else in the world would China threaten then? the only answer in economic terms lies directly north, in the Raw Economic wonderland of Siberia.

[Uesugi Kenshin]

I think those pilots ended up wearing civilian garb instead of the Chinese flight suites and such. At least while on base they kept out of Chinese uniforms.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

Actually, I suspect that a few million people would be acceptable losses for China.
Losing a billion people would scare them off though.

A few million meaning in the neighborhood of 400 to 500 million at first, then an additional 100 to 200 million in non-nuclear warfare related casualties, then an additional 100 to 200 million in other causes. So that's 600 to 900 million.

[scooter_the_shooter]

If it goes nuclear all The US and allies gotta do is unload on all of china first. .....not good lots of innocents would die but.... rather them then us

[Meneldil]

I highly doubt China has the resources and the manpower to invade Tawain at the moment. Tawain bought a shitload of european and american warships and planes, while most of Chinese army is using outdated equipement.

But apart from that, I'm fairly sure they plan to invade Formose at some point, and I consider China as being 'evil'.

[bmolsson]

I think that we have to remember that China doesn't have any opposition or media going up against any crazy decision. When the first nuke is in the air it's to late and neither side will give up it's positions until nothing is left.
I don't think that Russia and India would rush to the side of US just like that. They are not stupid and will see where the outcome will be before entering......

[Red Harvest]

I don't think that Russia and India would rush to the side of US just like that. They are not stupid and will see where the outcome will be before entering......

You are confusing their motivation. They would do it not to "rush to the side of the US", but out of fear that they would be next--or outright confusion about who China was firing at as various Chinese sites started to go up in mushroom clouds. It is not in Russia or India's interest for China to be allowed to become expansionist. At any rate, I doubt China would launch pre-emptively at a strategic level. It has only perhaps 100 missiles capable of that at most, from what I've read. Dedicating the full force would leave it completely exposed with no trump card left. Given such a condition, it would make Russia or India more likely to strike for their own national security.

[Kagemusha]

One of the worst things that comes to my mind in the near future is that China and Russia will form somekind of partnership.Because after the collapse of Soviet Union they dont have that kind of ideologigal rivalry between them.Russia is in lot more better terms with China then Japan, because Russia and Japan have had an feud of Kuril (spelling?) Islands since WWII.Infact Russia is the only major country in the world that sells weapons to China.
Imagine if these too would join their forces with Russias huge natural resources and Chinas human resources.

[InsaneApache]

Hell, you only have to look at the major suckage Blair did when the Chinese PM visited a few years ago, disgusting :(

I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment....good grief the rozzers were arresting anyone who got within 1/2 mile of Fu Manchu, or whatever his bloody name is...disgusting in a democratic society....but hey, it's only what Bliar would love to do with all legitimate protests if he thought he'd get away with it.

[Uesugi Kenshin]

Kagemusha the problem with Russia and China fighting as allies is their technology is now obsolete, their armies are relatively poorly trained and in Russia's case they are pretty poor iirc.

[bmolsson]

You are confusing their motivation. They would do it not to "rush to the side of the US", but out of fear that they would be next--or outright confusion about who China was firing at as various Chinese sites started to go up in mushroom clouds. It is not in Russia or India's interest for China to be allowed to become expansionist. At any rate, I doubt China would launch pre-emptively at a strategic level. It has only perhaps 100 missiles capable of that at most, from what I've read. Dedicating the full force would leave it completely exposed with no trump card left. Given such a condition, it would make Russia or India more likely to strike for their own national security.

Russia will never be attacked by China. Chinese expansion would turn South rather than west. There is not really much to expand in to of value until you reach Europe.

India might react the way you describe. They are after all the worlds largest democracy and do have a more "western" appeal than most of us think.
On the other hand, the fact that India is a democracy migt stop them from being a "real" ally.....