China getting uppity over Taiwan again... hardliner invokes the 'N' word

[Spino]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4...00e2511c8.html

China ‘ready to use N-weapons against US’
By Alexandra Harney in Beijing
Published: July 14 2005 21:59 | Last updated: July 14 2005 21:59

China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if it is attacked by Washington during a confrontation over Taiwan, according to a senior Chinese military official.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Zhu Chenghu, a major general in the People's Liberation Army, said at an official briefing.

Mr Zhu, who is also a professor at China's National Defence University, was speaking at a function for foreign journalists organised, in part, by the Chinese government. He added that China's definition of its territory includes warships and aircraft.

“If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond,” Mr Zhu said. “We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds. . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.” Mr Zhu is a self-acknowledged “hawk” who has warned previously that China could strike the US with long-range missiles. But his threat to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan is the most specific by a senior Chinese official in nearly a decade.

Rick Fisher, a former senior US congressional official and an authority on the Chinese military, said the specific nature of the threat “is a new addition to China's public discourse”.

China's official doctrine has called for no first use of nuclear weapons since its first atomic test in 1964. But Mr Zhu is not the first Chinese official to refer to the possibility of using such weapons first in a conflict over Taiwan.

Chas Freeman, a former US assistant secretary of defence, said in 1999 that a PLA official had told him China could respond in kind to a nuclear strike by the US in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.

“In the end you care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei,” Mr Freeman quoted this official as saying. The official is believed to have been Xiong Guangkai, now the PLA's deputy chief of general staff.

The rationale for the new threats is unclear. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs could not be reached for comment.

Mr Zhu, who has risen from the rank of colonel over the past five years, insisted he was expressing his personal views, and that they did not represent the policy of the Chinese government. Nor was he anticipating war between China and the US.

But he said that, because China did not have the capability to fight a conventional war against the US, the threat to escalate might be the only way to stop a war.

His comments could provide insight into the thinking among some in the PLA amid growing anxiety in Washington about its capabilities. Last month, Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, voiced concern about China's military build-up.


Additional reporting by Edward Alden in Washington

So now firing on 'sovereign territory' like ships and aircraft merits a nuclear response. It's one thing to bleed the US slowly in a 'low intensity' conflict like Vietnam, another thing entirely to threaten to huck a nuke towards one of our major cities because we don't care for their geopolitical interpretation of Taiwan's status. We may be on the slippery slope of decline into obsolesence and outright wussification but we're not there yet. If the cold war with China ever got hot via the use of nukes they'd fare a hell of alot worse than us. I guess they forgot the lesson Japan learned when they tried the same crap in the East and South East Pacific 60+ years ago.

[lars573]

Really so the Japanese had nukes to threaten FDR with? That's news to me.
Truth is China needs to threaten to use their nukes. Their amry while huge is mostly poorly trained conscripts. Their are maybe 400 or 500 thousand elire troops that are on a par with US forces. Forces that couldn't easily be replaced if depleted.

Still the smart thing for the PRC to do would get Krazy Kim and the Korean Kommie Klub to have a little party in Seoul. That way the US would be too preoccupied to say boo to who about anything they did in Taiwan. Rather than gesticulate with their missiles.

[Papewaio]

Interesting that the reason the hawk states for the escalation is a surprising one:

But he said that, because China did not have the capability to fight a conventional war against the US, the threat to escalate might be the only way to stop a war.

I always thought that a conventional defensive war on the mainland was a stalemate. I suppose the Chinese have figured out how bad their ships are when one of their best submarines was tracked in Japanese waters.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Zhu Chenghu, a major general in the People's Liberation Army, said at an official briefing.

I would immediately bring in the Chinese ambassador and ask for what they are going to do with this loose cannon teaching at their Defence University. And then I would mention things like trade, trade and oh trade. Get rid of him and open up your markets or keep him and go down a few notches in preferred trading status.

[PanzerJaeger]

China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if it is attacked by Washington during a confrontation over Taiwan, according to a senior Chinese military official.

They can try.. America has more cababilities in the field of nuclear offense and defense than she lets on..

[TonyJ]

Realy ??

Forgive my ignorance - genuine question - what is nuclear defence ?

[PanzerJaeger]

Forgive my ignorance - genuine question - what is nuclear defence ?

Popping those puppies before they hit their intended targets.

Although new technology suggests that their internal mechanisms can be stopped, either while on the ground or in mid flight, so there wouldnt even be a detonation.

The US is always one step ahead of the technology it presents to the general public.

[Spino]

Really so the Japanese had nukes to threaten FDR with? That's news to me.
Truth is China needs to threaten to use their nukes. Their amry while huge is mostly poorly trained conscripts. Their are maybe 400 or 500 thousand elire troops that are on a par with US forces. Forces that couldn't easily be replaced if depleted.

C'mon now. Japan flipped out when we imposed our oil embargo on them. They used it as an excuse to go berzerk in the Pacific and hit us as hard as they could.

True, China needs to play the nuclear card whenever they can but a 'trip wire' nuclear option isn't so cut and dry in this geopolitical scenario. NATO played that ace card during the Cold War when West Germany gave the US the green light to station quick response, medium range Pershing nuclear missiles on its territory. At least then NATO was fully justified because it wasn't rattling its saber about East Germany and Poland being oppressed under Soviet rule. As far as the Warsaw Pact was concerned, if they were geniunely serious about protecting their allies from invasion by capitalist pigs and were not the slightest bit interested in invading the west then there was no need to worry about those Pershing missiles. However China knows the world doesn't buy its bulls--t about Taiwan so they're trying everything possible to work the equation in their favor. Now that China's hardliners have declared their planes and ships as sovereign territory I'm waiting for them to declare that any US forces stationed in or around Taiwan as being an equally aggregious offense and and an act worthy of nukage.

I would immediately bring in the Chinese ambassador and ask for what they are going to do with this loose cannon teaching at their Defence University. And then I would mention things like trade, trade and oh trade. Get rid of him and open up your markets or keep him and go down a few notches in preferred trading status.

Exactly. We'll have to see how the Chinese government handles this rabble rouser. Although I have no doubt many saber rattling hardliners are exchanging high fives slapping each other on the backs after seeing this story break in the west.

[lars573]

C'mon now. Japan flipped out when we imposed our oil embargo on them. They used it as an excuse to go berzerk in the Pacific and hit us as hard as they could.

Acrually you got it backwards. FDR was counting on the Japanese going to war with the US over the oil embargo. Their is very little I would put past FDR pulling to get the US into WW2.

True, China needs to play the nuclear card whenever they can but a 'trip wire' nuclear option isn't so cut and dry in this geopolitical scenario. NATO played that ace card during the Cold War when West Germany gave the US the green light to station quick response, medium range Pershing nuclear missiles on its territory. At least then NATO was fully justified because it wasn't rattling its saber about East Germany and Poland being oppressed under Soviet rule. As far as the Warsaw Pact was concerned, if they were geniunely serious about protecting their allies from invasion by capitalist pigs and were not the slightest bit interested in invading the west then there was no need to worry about those Pershing missiles. However China knows the world doesn't buy its bulls--t about Taiwan so they're trying everything possible to work the equation in their favor. Now that China's hardliners have declared their planes and ships as sovereign territory I'm waiting for them to declare that any US forces stationed in or around Taiwan as being an equally aggregious offense and and an act worthy of nukage.

You realize that the PRC and Taiwan are, like the Koreas, the remenant of an early cold war civil war? China is not full of shit claiming Taiwan is a rebellious province. The allies gave Formousa (Taiwan) to China after WW2, the fact that China split into a commie/crapitalist civil war was and is beside the point. The commies won we have to live with that. The nationalists ceased to speak for China when they were driven out of it. Taiwan belongs to China irregardless of what type of government it has.

[scooter_the_shooter]

Thats like saying the US belongs to the brits

[Beirut]

Taiwan belongs to China irregardless of what type of government it has.

Agreed. And the Sudetenland belonged to Germany as of 1933.

[Papewaio]

Taiwan belongs to China irregardless of what type of government it has.

Actually it would work the other way round. KMT used to rule China and Taiwan. Communist China has never ruled Taiwan. Hence KMT has claim to China and Taiwan. The only 'justification' would be based on racial lines that all Chinese must be ruled by Communist China, which I'm sure Singapore would disagree with.

However KMT doesn't even rule Taiwan anymore. Taiwan is a fledgeling democracy now and has the a Green party President. He doesn't claim that China belongs to Taiwan or the other way round.

China is acting like a bully that is being denied someone elses toy. As such the bully should be put in its place. To give Taiwan to China would be the same as giving Yugoslavia to Nazi Germany. In fact it would be worse as this act of appeasement would be done justified not on morals but markets.

[TonyJ]

Shouldn't we judge just how much these comments are meant for internal consumption? I am by no means an expert on Chinese politics, but I can understand how the leaders would need to look tough in the face of international criticism in front of their own people.

Is someone merely trying to make political capital ?

[Red Harvest]

Fairly standard posturing by China. The Chinese are quite savvy and they keep probing, testing for weakness in US resolve. The important thing is to reaffirm each time that we will do whatever necessary to turn mainland China into a smoking hole if they go after Taiwan. (Technically, with all their underground coal fires they are already a smoking hole, but I digress.) Say things nicely and diplomatically, but remain firm. If we ever fail to respond appropriately, then I suspect the Chinese will carry out their threats vs. Taiwan.

I also get the impression that China uses Taiwan as a way to stir up nationalist sentiment and externalize some enemies. Sort of the same as Iran uses the US as the "Great Satan", or autocratic Arab nations use the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

China knows they can't knock out U.S. nuclear capabilities, so a nuclear fight is the end of China.

[Don Corleone]

I agree with everything you're saying Red, except did you see the bit about "We're prepared to lose every city east of Xian." That's a hell of a lot. What's more, I can confirm from my own experience, that they're in the process of moving as much industry & R/D out West (Xian, Chengdu etc) as possible. Now it could just be that they're trying to help the West catch up to the rest of the country (the West is very backwards) or maybe they're establishing a buffer zone. Who knows. In general, I don't like this, as it looks to me that their generals are acting on their own, saying whatever they like, w/o regards to what the party actually wants.

[Kagemusha]

Fairly standard posturing by China. The Chinese are quite savvy and they keep probing, testing for weakness in US resolve. The important thing is to reaffirm each time that we will do whatever necessary to turn mainland China into a smoking hole if they go after Taiwan. (Technically, with all their underground coal fires they are already a smoking hole, but I digress.) Say things nicely and diplomatically, but remain firm. If we ever fail to respond appropriately, then I suspect the Chinese will carry out their threats vs. Taiwan.

I also get the impression that China uses Taiwan as a way to stir up nationalist sentiment and externalize some enemies. Sort of the same as Iran uses the US as the "Great Satan", or autocratic Arab nations use the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

China knows they can't knock out U.S. nuclear capabilities, so a nuclear fight is the end of China.

Nuclear war would be also the end US as we know it.I simply cant understand why US is researching anti nuclear missile defence?You cant assume that it would stay as your secret only.I think Nukes are the only thing that has stopped major wars in the world in recent decades.

[Red Harvest]

Nuclear war would be also the end US as we know it.I simply cant understand why US is researching anti nuclear missile defence?You cant assume that it would stay as your secret only.I think Nukes are the only thing that has stopped major wars in the world in recent decades.

I'm not sure that China could deliver enough warheads for that to be true. Their strategic arsenal is apparently small. And there is a fair chance that we would hit them pre-emptively if they started an attack, obliterating every potential command and control structure. This isn't Russia we are talking about...they don't have a large capability, yet.

The Chinese arsenal is probably small enough, and the warhead path such that nukes could be used to take out individual Chinese missiles over the ocean. (Just guessing.) Chinese nukes that got through would cause horrific damage, but they wouldn't be the same sort of threat as Russia--where the number is such that they simply could not be stopped.

Even such a limited nuclear war would be awful on global scale. I doubt China is crazy enough to force the issue.

[sharrukin]

I'm not sure that China could deliver enough warheads for that to be true. Their strategic arsenal is apparently small. And there is a fair chance that we would hit them pre-emptively if they started an attack, obliterating every potential command and control structure. This isn't Russia we are talking about...they don't have a large capability, yet.

The Chinese arsenal is probably small enough, and the warhead path such that nukes could be used to take out individual Chinese missiles over the ocean. (Just guessing.) Chinese nukes that got through would cause horrific damage, but they wouldn't be the same sort of threat as Russia--where the number is such that they simply could not be stopped.

Even such a limited nuclear war would be awful on global scale. I doubt China is crazy enough to force the issue.

Neither is the US. The Chinese nuclear forces are not the equal of the American force, but they are similar in purpose to the French and British forces. The Americans are not going to trade the major urban centres of the western United States for Taiwan, and the Chinese are not going to trade half of China for it either. Stalemate, in which neither side is willing to go nuclear. The Chinese threats are probably a response to the American doctrine that nuclear weapons used at sea are not part and parcel of a nuclear war. The regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc will not be too keen on taking the chance that the limited use of naval nuclear weapons, might trigger the theatre use of such weapons.

The DF-31 (Dong Feng-31) has a range of about 5,000 miles, sufficient to hit targets along the entire West Coast of the United States and in several northern Rocky Mountain states. This has a solid fuel motor and is being deployed in a transporter-erector launcher [TEL] which would make it very difficult to take out their nuclear arsenal in a pre-emptive strike. They are developing an improved DF-41with an improved chassis capable of crosscountry and using poor roads. The Belarussian MAZ vehicle used in the Russian SS-20 has been photographed at the DF-31 production facility in Nanyuan, near Beijing, so the Chinese seem to be going ahead with it.

[Red Harvest]

Neither is the US.

I think you are mistaken. Why? Because if China steps over that line, then they have gone mad and have to be confronted, and the sooner the better. It is better to finish such an aggressor in a limited nuclear war while you have massive superiority, than to risk a full nuclear war later. Korea is a study of what happens when you fail to use your superiority in an arm to win.

The DF-31 (Dong Feng-31) has a range of about 5,000 miles, sufficient to hit targets along the entire West Coast of the United States and in several northern Rocky Mountain states.

There are quite a few ways to prevent these from reaching their targets given the massive disparity of numbers and QUALITY of the arsenals--electronics, guidance, capability, command and control, tracking, etc. Pre-emptive strikes are one way. With China's central control, if you can kill or cut off the leadership from their missiles, its over.

I don't see how it is possible to have a conventional war with China in their own backyard...and that means bringing in the nukes. With nukes it is better to give than to receive, so a pre-emptive strike would be the natural course.


On a cheerier note. I think the modernization changes in China are going to transform the govt (against its own will) over the next decade or so. I think the brinksmanship will subside and an understanding will be reached with regards to Taiwan...and Korea. In the meantime, we must remain firm and clear.