China getting uppity over Taiwan again... hardliner invokes the 'N' word

[sharrukin]

I think you are mistaken. Why? Because if China steps over that line, then they have gone mad and have to be confronted, and the sooner the better. It is better to finish such an aggressor in a limited nuclear war while you have massive superiority, than to risk a full nuclear war later. Korea is a study of what happens when you fail to use your superiority in an arm to win.

I agree with you regarding what the Americans should do. I just have my doubts that any American administration would trade Los Angelos and San Francisco for a victory against China. To the rest of us it's just California, but to a politician, those are votes.

There are quite a few ways to prevent these from reaching their targets given the massive disparity of numbers and QUALITY of the arsenals--electronics, guidance, capability, command and control, tracking, etc. Pre-emptive strikes are one way. With China's central control, if you can kill or cut off the leadership from their missiles, its over.

Well I have read a lot about the Star Wars missile defence program and the problems in destroying an incoming ICBM is not an easy one. If the Americans had deployed a system as Reagan wanted then maybe. As it is now, I find it unlikely we could stop them as the missile systems and guidance radars are not in place.

I don't see how it is possible to have a conventional war with China in their own backyard...and that means bringing in the nukes. With nukes it is better to give than to receive, so a pre-emptive strike would be the natural course.

True! These however are road mobile and must be destroyed within the first 20-30 minutes or they are on their way. Cruise missiles are accurate enough if they have real-time data for targeting and mid-course update, but they are too slow. ICBM's, or SLBM's would give warning to the Chinese of an attack and are not accurate enough, and the problem of updating them where the mobile systems are right now and where they will be in 18 minutes is a problem. It's a hell of a chance and does little to address the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.

"Mr. President," he exclaims, "I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say, no more than 10-20 million killed, tops!"
Gen. Buck Turgidson

A limited conventional war against China is possible but it is one that neither the US or China could win decisively.

On a cheerier note. I think the modernization changes in China are going to transform the govt (against its own will) over the next decade or so. I think the brinksmanship will subside and an understanding will be reached with regards to Taiwan...and Korea. In the meantime, we must remain firm and clear.

Well I hope you are right, but I am not convinced that democracy will mean they are no longer a potential enemy.