My Iraq Opinion.

[Tribesman]

say we arm the Shia and Kurds and let them do our dirty work for us.

What do you think they have been doing these past couple of years .

Was that you making the speech in the Iraqin Parliament Panzer ?
The governmnet has failed , the Americans have failed , turn Baghdad over to the militia and let them protect us .

[JAG]

So Panzer, do you know what happened over the weekend in Turkey?

If so, why have you not accounted for it and don't you think it kinda screws up your whole nice, cosy picture?

[discovery1]

Kurdish bombers?


So, yeah, Kurdish nationalism would be a great problem caused by this.

[sharrukin]

Most of the army officers of even the new Iraqi security forces are Sunni. Most of the Iraqi army officers were recruited from the Sunni Arab minority and many of them are still out there. One of the reasons the current officer corp has more Sunni's is that the officers recruited initially wouldn't fight the insurgents during some of the unrest (Falluja). This forced the American military to turn to the former officers of Saddam's military. Those officers in high positions not from Saddams army, have little experience and are not well regarded by the Americans on the ground.

The current Iraqi police and army units that do exist are fragile in both training and morale. Remove a significant portion of the officers and galvanize the unemployed Sunni ex-officers and men to action and you would get a civil war that might turn out to be very bloody indeed. Even as it stands the current army troops have shown little motivation compared to that of the militia's.

In addition you have the problem of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait who are predominately Sunni in religion are they would begin funneling arms, volounteers, and money to the Sunni insurgents as the massacres began. Other nations farther away such a Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan, and Algeria would pose more of a political problem than a military one.

The civil war would also make the Turks and the Iranians very nervous and they might also begin to assist in ways that might at first seem counter-intuitive.

This map shows the Kurdish regions of the middle east and if a civil war erupted the Kurds would in all likelihood make an attempt for the long awaited dream of independence. I doubt a direct intervention would be likely, but the Turks might assist the Sunni's in their fight as an independent Kurdish homeland would be a disaster for them.



The Iranian to a lesser degree would have many of the same worries, though being predominately Shia they would be tempted to play the radical shia card in the turbulence of a civil war. Radical Shia Muslims would be attracted to the American backed Shia groups. War tends to radicalize people and there would be a real danger of the American faction becoming something we might not care for. The militia's that would spring up would be far more difficult to control than they currently are.

"You know you never defeated us on the battlefield," said the American colonel.

The North Vietnamese colonel pondered this remark a moment. "That may be so," he replied, "but it is also irrelevant."

Conversation in Hanoi, april 1975 (april 30th, Saigon surrenders)

[PanzerJaeger]

Thanks for the well thought out and informative perspectives.

At this late night juncture, i will only address the Kurdish bombing of Turkey.

In my opinion, the Kurdish and the Turkish have always been at odds, and that really doesnt have anything to do with Iraq. We have seen very little trouble from them in Iraq.

Also, for those worried about genocides... Im not suggesting the US leave the country, only that we step back and let the Shia/Kurds go in and fight this dirty war for us, as they could probably identify the good sunni from the bad better than us.

I would certainly give them a broader leash than American troops currently have, but that would not extend to any kind of genocides.

[Spetulhu]

In my opinion, the Kurdish and the Turkish have always been at odds, and that really doesnt have anything to do with Iraq. We have seen very little trouble from them in Iraq.

Perhaps so, but they've certainly seen Turks in Iraq. Even with the US/UK No-Fly Zone in operation the Turks were hunting Kurdish separatists in Iraq. Yup, the innocent victims of Saddam were despicable terrorists when our brave allies hunted them. Any guns given to the Kurds WILL end up used against their real enemy, Turkey. It's not that many years since Kurdish was a forbidden language there.

[Tribesman]

We have seen very little trouble from them in Iraq.
Thats funny , since Ansar al Islam is an Iraqi Kurdish group . They have been responsible for nearly 10% of all the suicide bombings .
But of course they have only recently become "terrorists" , they managed to bomb the UN Headquaters , the Italian Military headquarters , the Jordanian Embassy , the Najaf Mosque and Shia shrines in Baghdad and Karbala before the State Dept. finally designated them as "terrorists" .
Then of course there are the "good terrorists" of the KDP and PUK who are condemned in the State Depts. report for their attacks and assassinations in Iraq , yet they are not designated as terrorists for some reason , and then you have the PKK who are listed as terrorists .

So if you are not seeing much trouble from them it must be because of the "Liberal bias" in your media sources

[JimBob]

Hold on a second. Since when are cultural wars short and efficient? Catholics and Protestants in Ireland for Centuries, The Crusades, though spread out, the warfare and hatreds existed over hundreds of years. Rwanda, Pogroms, Bosnia. We tried the "let the newly liberated Shias do it" strategy soon after the fall of Baghdad, short version is that armed groups ruled the streets, long version is in Generation Kill. Another problem is that the Kurds and Shias are pissed, and they will not just 'hunt down militants' they will hunt down Sunnis, I mean if people of one ethnicity had blown up people of yours, would you not take bloody vengence, and would the other side not respond? Now I dunno about you but I don't want to be from the country that supports the commiting of genocide.

[Al Khalifah]

The survivors of this blatant genocide of Sunnis would surely be the next generation of terrorists. If this plan were to go ahead, for the US to be in any way involved would be an international relations disaster and they would lose all credability.


However, on a variation of your idea: Why not seperate Iraq into three countries if they can't all get along?
Sunnistan
Kurdistan
Shiastan
Or even one country with three semi-autonomous states. The United States of Iraq.