
Originally Posted by
dgb
I've posted on this before, this doesn't surprise me.
CA had a niche in the highly tactical war game area. They're moving out of that, trying to reach into the traditional RTS area. As they do this, they move away from their core, reliable base, and into a far more volatile market of the standard RTS market. There they are going up against the big RTS guns - AOEIII etc. where they won't survive. They've got one round of sales, because it's something new, but it wont hold. They've moved out of what they are good at in pursuit of a quick dollar, but it won't hold.
This is similar to what happened to the Tribes series. In Tribes (1) there was a game which appealed to very few - but to those it did they loved it. It was too complex, too difficult for the average gamer, but those who did play were extremely loyal to it.
In Tribes 2 they created a game was dumbed down too appeal to the mass market (hey jetpacks! cool). They moved out of their niche, and tried to get into the standard FPS niche. And yes, it did sell well, but later, when the average gamers moved on, the core following was still there, but extremely dissapointed. The trust of the core had been lost, and they weren't goign to swallow another attempt like that any more.
Consequently, Tribes Vengeance was an attempt to move even further into the mass market, at which point it got beaten around the head by the big players.
This will probably happen with TW, think about it, those million sales haven't actually bought a lot, the new gamers who thought it looked cool to play haven't been held (I can name at least four of my friends who bought the game, but have given it away because it is too complex) - they liked the demo, because it's set up for you to win, but when you start having to look after your own flanks etc. then it all just gets too hard. In dumbing it down to attract the people above (who have allready abandoned it) they've alienated the core who are going to be hard to regain.
Now they are in the position where they can't easily go back to their old market, because the trust just isn't there, and if they try to attract the average gamers again, they are going to have to dumb it down to standard RTS level, at which point they are goin to go up against Age of Empire III etc. If they think they can win that battle, well good luck to them, but they are not going to.
So yes, they may look ok now, but come back in three years and see how they feel, being stuck out in the wilderness with the EA Games etc. to contend with - they chose to leave the safe house of the niche they were in, they won't be welcomed back in unless they prove themselves again.
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