China and Russia having a joint military exercise

[Kagemusha]

Here are some prewiews from different news papers. Herald Tribune,China Daily and Washington Post .Joint exercise have already begun today.Your thoughts about this?I personally doesnt like that the Russo Chinese relationships are warming up.

[Don Corleone]

This is Russian & China's way of telling the US: 'Okay, we let you enter into Southern Asia (Afghanistan) in order to take care of business. Time for you to go'.

[Kagemusha]

It seems so stupid.I think its Chinas intrest that middle Asia is at chaos.But i really dont understand Russians.I think they should not have military exercises with China.What they really should do is to co-operate with you Yankees because Russia is having a hell of a lot problems with many of the previous Soviet States and the rising of exteremist there.Btw Don nice to see you are back.

[Louis VI the Fat]

I read an article in le Monde Diplomatique the other day about China's ascendency to the status of superpower.

Find it in English here.

'China wants to bypass the Japanese-United States alliance in Asia and at the United Nations, and, through asymmetrical diplomacy, become a different kind of world power.
Etc. etc.'

If you go back to the main page there's an article about Sino-Indian relations as well.

Good reads for those interested in this subject.

[Redleg]

I read an article in le Monde Diplomatique the other day about China's ascendency to the status of superpower.

Find it in English here.

'China wants to bypass the Japanese-United States alliance in Asia and at the United Nations, and, through asymmetrical diplomacy, become a different kind of world power.
Etc. etc.'

If you go back to the main page there's an article about Sino-Indian relations as well.

Good reads for those interested in this subject.

You find anything on how this desire relates to the China-North Korea relationship?

I have seen reports coming out of South Korea - that shows North Korea is attempting to normalize or at least give the appearance of it - their relationship with at least South Korea.

[Red Harvest]

Russia is surrounded by semi-hostile neighbors anymore. That is the legacy of its USSR past.

Can't say I'm surprised by the exercises. Note that Russia wants to keep a good deal of separation from the issue of Taiwan, and it would like some arms sales.

[Kagemusha]

I read an article in le Monde Diplomatique the other day about China's ascendency to the status of superpower.

Find it in English here.

'China wants to bypass the Japanese-United States alliance in Asia and at the United Nations, and, through asymmetrical diplomacy, become a different kind of world power.
Etc. etc.'

If you go back to the main page there's an article about Sino-Indian relations as well.

Good reads for those interested in this subject.

Very good article Louis. China,Russia and India,all warming up their relations.It seems that China is really looking for Strategig allies.

[Kagemusha]

Russia is surrounded by semi-hostile neighbors anymore. That is the legacy of its USSR past.

Can't say I'm surprised by the exercises. Note that Russia wants to keep a good deal of separation from the issue of Taiwan, and it would like some arms sales.

Russia has some very good equipment to sell to China.For example:T-90 and T-80 main battle tanks,BMP-3 AFV´s,SU-27 and MIG-31 fighter jet´s.And lots of new better equipment from their large Arms industry.

[Louis VI the Fat]

You find anything on how this desire relates to the China-North Korea relationship?

I have seen reports coming out of South Korea - that shows North Korea is attempting to normalize or at least give the appearance of it - their relationship with at least South Korea.

My general impression is that China regards North Korea a thorn in their side. For one thing, it prevents normalization of relations with South Korea - China's natural ally against Japan. Both share an absolute hatred for Japan.
But South Korea can never give up it's ties with the U.S. while the current regime in Pyongyang stays in power. Which means staying in the Japanese-American camp, whether they like it or not.

Here are the relevant parts from the link I provided:

Another sign of the peaceful emergence of China is its involvement in the crisis in October 2002 between the US and North Korea, which has declared that it is now ready to produce an atomic bomb. Beijing was the moving force behind the group of six (China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Russia and the US) formed to settle the dispute, and it is doing all it can to cool Pyongyang, stoked by the inflammatory statements of the Bush administration.

The prospect of a nuclear power in the Korean peninsula is not something Beijing relishes, and Yang confidently asserts that, if Pyongyang “were to start tests, we would cut off aid”. But opinion is divided on the question of pressure. Some think aid should be cut, at least to some extent, and they recall that once before, in 2004, a fortuitous technical incident caused an interruption in the flow of oil and forced President Kim Jong-il to resume negotiations (9). Others, like Professor Shen Dingli, take the opposite view, that “to stop aid would destroy all hope and drive [an already disastrous regime] to extremes”.

“Korea is a detestable burden,” says a former diplomat, “a regime in which people are dying of starvation to keep a dynasty in power. But China is stuck. It can neither advance nor retreat.” Sections of the army toy with the idea that nuclearisation is not all that serious and “Korea was and is China’s sentinel” in the event of conflict. Beijing has proved, if not to Washington at least to its neighbours, that it is capable of moving on from its old alliances and engaging in active diplomacy. Consider the moves to strengthen its links with the former ally of the US, South Korea, which fears destabilisation from the North.

[Don Corleone]

Interesting article, Louis. I'm not certain I agree with everything in the article, but it does have my mind whirring. The funny thing is, China actually doesn't really have much of an axe to grind with the US. Even the party officials. The only big grudge they have against us is Taiwan, and while they don't like it, I don't think (as it stands currently) will cause any long term hostility. If it escalates to armed conflict, all bets are off. Funny, most educated Chinese I met in Shanghai, they all know the US is the only Western country that didn't set up shop in the Bund, and it appears to grant us a little goodwill.

[Red Harvest]

My general impression is that China regards North Korea a thorn in their side. For one thing, it prevents normalization of relations with South Korea - China's natural ally against Japan. Both share an absolute hatred for Japan.
But South Korea can never give up it's ties with the U.S. while the current regime in Pyongyang stays in power. Which means staying in the Japanese-American camp, whether they like it or not.

Here are the relevant parts from the link I provided:

Interesting concept. But I think they have seen North Korea as an ally and thorn in the side to the West. A united Korea would likely not want to be dominated by either Japan or the Chinese. It would most likely not be a dictatorship and therefore have less cozy relations with China than with other elected govts. By being North Korea's only major supporter China has neutralized South Korea somewhat, and also kept the U.S. tied down. (In essence they have three large militaries pointed at each other, and therefore not able to point at China.) But the nuclear development threatens instability that the Chinese probably don't want. It is in China's interest to maintain the status quo, because anything else will likely impact them negatively. North Korea getting nukes certainly upsets that, but I think they are not sure what would benefit China most at the moment.

[Redleg]

My general impression is that China regards North Korea a thorn in their side. For one thing, it prevents normalization of relations with South Korea - China's natural ally against Japan. Both share an absolute hatred for Japan.

Yes the history between the three more then indicates that this will remain true for a long time - my guess is at least 1 more generation ie (20 Years0

But South Korea can never give up it's ties with the U.S. while the current regime in Pyongyang stays in power. Which means staying in the Japanese-American camp, whether they like it or not.

That is what has my mind aspinning with the overtures that North Korea is doing right now. If a reconlication (SP) between North and South Korea happens then the age old alliance between Korea and China will be possible once again.

And that has significant impact on the global economy being that South Korea is if I remeber correctly in the top 20 economies of the world right now.

Here are the relevant parts from the link I provided:

THere are a few sites that I don't go to at work - so I will read the linked article when I get home.

[Louis VI the Fat]

THere are a few sites that I don't go to at work - so I will read the linked article when I get home.

Like, you mean you will get fired for visiting sites with 'adult', 'hate' or 'French' content?

[Redleg]

Like, you mean you will get fired for visiting sites with 'adult', 'hate' or 'French' content?

That and a few other sites - I only know of three sites that I can safely go to read material that doesn't violate the company rules and the little watchdog program.

Sometimes its a pain in the rear end being a work - but I must earn money to pay for my computer habit.

[Al Khalifah]

What would happen to North Korea as a threat if Kim Yong died tomorrow? How would it affect the China situation?

[Louis VI the Fat]

I only know of three sites that I can safely go to read material that doesn't violate the company rules and the little watchdog program.

Fantastic! From now on during work hours I won't answer to your posts directly, only by throwing one link after the other at you.

Click on 'm and get fired.
Don't click and get kicked around by that snooty Frenchmen.

[Proletariat]

That is what has my mind aspinning with the overtures that North Korea is doing right now. If a reconlication (SP) between North and South Korea happens then the age old alliance between Korea and China will be possible once again.

I believe you may be misreading the South and North Korean overtures. Are you familiar with S. Korea's Sunshine Policy?

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/...?oneclick=true

They basically had Hyundai give the North $400 million. It looks like a bribe from the South to keep the status quo, after realizing the costs to the South of reunification.

I wish I could find the original article I'm thinking of, still searching...

[Proletariat]

Ah, here we go.

Now it turns out that the statements of comity -- and by extension Kim's Nobel -- came with a hidden $400 million price tag. Kim Dae Jung has all but admitted that he paid the bribe to Kim Jong il in order to ensure the historic June 2000 Pyongyang summit took place. Idle question: if $400 million is the going price for a summit, what will the DPRK asking price for denuclearization be?

The South Korean reaction to this also merits further comment. This country seems badly split between conservatives who share the U.S. view of North Korea's intention, and sunshine advocates (one of whom was just elected to the presidency) who seem in complete denial about the situation in North Korea. This faction is deathly afraid of a DPRK collapse, because of the overwhelming costs that will come with reunification. I suspect this fear is what lies behind their willingness to repeatedly bribe the North Koreans into acquiescence. However, unless and until the liberal wing of the South Korean political spectrum comes to grips with the moral and material price of appeasing the North Korean regime, there is little that the U.S. will be able to do to defuse the situation.

http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/000420.html

[Redleg]

Fantastic! From now on during work hours I won't answer to your posts directly, only by throwing one link after the other at you.

Click on 'm and get fired.
Don't click and get kicked around by that snooty Frenchmen.

Yes kick me around a little it adds character to my otherwise dull life at work watching my team perform their tasks.

Bysides that - there is the other 15 hours that I am not at work to provided a little with links.

[Redleg]

I believe you are misreading the South and North Korean overtures. Are you familiar with S. Korea's Sunshine Policy?

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/...?oneclick=true

They basically had Hyundai give the North $400 million. It looks like a bribe from the South to keep the status quo, after realizing the costs to the South of reunification.

I wish I could find the original article I'm thinking of, still searching...

Yes I have just a little knowledge about the sunshine Policy - it used to happen around the same time frame as two joint exercises between US and South Korea. However this time the news reports of activities seem to be more then just status quo regarding the relationship between the two.

In the past North Korea never ackownledge the South Korea Heros of the Japanese Occupation nor the Korean War.

[Proletariat]

In the past North Korea never ackownledge the South Korea Heros of the Japanese Occupation nor the Korean War.

I think that makes the Drezner bit from a year ago even more disturbing. Sounds like the young generation of S. Koreans are more than willing to buddy up to their Northern brothers and give us the finger while at it.

[Papewaio]

Tiny little New Zealand has very good relations with China... anyone know why?

Clue: Gung Ho...

[Samurai Waki]

China probably sees the economic hamper that is North Korea. I think their tie with North Korea was just conveniant, although impersonal after Mao's death. China probably realizes that the Economic Situation in the Korean Peninsula could be more prosperous if an economic power house like South Korea joined with the north. I don't think China's interest is spreading the word of Communism anymore, I think it's about making money, and keeping it's current investments checked and balanced. If North Korea developed a Nuclear Weapon, China's economy would probably suffer from it.

As far as Russia goes, I think it's probably to warm up economic ties, probably for not only Russia designed weapons, but also Oil and Timber in Yakutsk and Siberia. If Separatist Movements started in Siberia, China could probably forget about having access to Siberia's vast timber and oil supplies. It's probably a joint Russian-Chinese pact to keep Siberia in line, just in case.

[sharrukin]

The Americans haven't turned out to be great allies for the Russians. The Americans have taken advantage of Russian weakness for some time now, and IMO this was very shortsighted. The US led NATO operations in the former Yugoslavia for example, without any real Russian participation in the decision making process. NATO exercises in Georgia, while Chechen and Georgian militants attack targets in Abkhazia and Russia. This while Russia supported the US against the Taliban and deployed troops to Tajikistan to guard against Taliban incursions. The independent Georgian newspaper Alia reports that Georgian security forces were even involved in recruiting some of the Chechen militants.

Russians increasingly believe that the West, especially the United States, has been taking advantage of Russian weakness since the Soviet Union collapsed. Russian interests have not been given much consideration and this has not gone unnoticed. An American businessman in 1992, reported the following statement from an unnamed Russian official: ''Right now, Russia may be on her knees'', the man said. ''But when she gets up, she'll remember how she was treated.'' The US has attempted in several ways to roll back Russian influence in many places, but lacks the means to replace such influence in any meaningful way. Russia is not going to abandon its strategic interests but it may find that China has more respect for them.

Democracy is sometimes used as an excuse for not proceeding with this potential alliance. This has not stopped American alliances with other nations and IMO is more of an excuse than a reason.

Ekho Moskvy radio station;
Out of 6,000 respondents, as reported by the radio station’s polling center, 46 percent said they considered the United States to be Russia’s adversary, while 54 percent said the United States was Russia’s ally.

The Russians are of course expected to forget about the Beslan school massacre while the US cries "never forget" about 911. Having Shamil Basayev the architect of the Beslan massacre come from CIA training camps doesn't help. Chechen militants taken prisoner by the Russians have turned out to be veterans of NATO backed terrorist groups operating in the balkans.

The neocon involvement in “American Committee for Peace in Chechnya,” a pro-Islamic group is a case in point, regarding American hostility. Men such as Richard Pearle, Bill Kristol, Elliott Abrams, Kenneth Adelman, Midge Decter, Frank Gaffney, Bruce Jackson, Michael Ledeen, and R. James Woolsey are part of this organization. The Russians are expected to understand the underlying causes of the Chechen conflict but the US is not expect to understand that of Al Qaeda's.

Zacarias Moussaoui, charged with being the 20th hijacker, was reported by the Wall Street Journal to have been "a recruiter for al-Qaeda-backed rebels in Chechnya", before he took up flight training in America.

Kassem Daher, linked by CSIS (Canadian Security Intelligence Service) to al-Qaeda, is a Lebanese native who came to Canada in the 1980s as a business immigrant. Daher, who once ran movie theatres in Leduc and Ponoka, left Canada in 1998. An alleged network came to light on Monday following the arrest of Kifah Wael Jayyousi, a former assistant superintendent in Detroit's school system. In one February 1995 conversation, Jayyousi, Daher and Zaky allegedly discussed how the network was moving jihadist soldiers between Algeria, Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea. Daher said "we are in charge of it in Canada," according to the affidavit, and added that "we have brothers in Lebanon who are ready to go to Chechnya but there's no money."...

The links to Al Qaeda are pretty clear yet the ACPC backs the anti-Russian Chechens militia groups and not the Chechen militia groups friendly to Russia!

Neil Mackay, writes in the Sunday Herald:
"Why would a group of leading American neo-conservatives, dedicated to fighting Islamic terror, have climbed into bed with Chechen rebels linked to al-Qaeda? The American Committee for Peace in Chechnya (ACPC), which includes Pentagon supremo Richard Perle, says the conflict between Russia and Chechnya is about Chechen nationalism, not terrorism.

The ACPC savaged Russia for the atrocities its forces have committed in the Caucuses, said President Vladimir Putin was “ridiculous”, claimed Russia was more “morally” to blame for the bloodshed than Chechen separatists and played down links between al-Qaeda and the “Chechen resistance”.

The ACPC’s support for the Chechen cause seems bizarre, as many of its members are among the most outspoken US policymakers who have made it clear that Islamist terror must be wiped out. But the organization has tried to broker peace talks between Russia and Chechen separatists."

http://www.newamericancentury.org/russia-20050217.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/st...299318,00.html
http://www.peaceinchechnya.org/about_members.htm

In light of the preceding some of the comments made in the articles become clearer. Not comforting but clearer.

A Russian military source said the exercise should help both sides co-ordinate in the fight against terrorism.

The two countries have invited observers from the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which together with Russia and China form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

That group recently called on the United States to set a timetable to withdraw its forces from bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which are used to support military operations in Afghanistan. The Uzbek authorities later gave U.S. forces 180 days to pull out, after the United States criticized the Uzbek government for suppressing demonstrators in the city of Andijan in May, leaving hundreds dead, according to human rights groups.

"I believe the implied message of Peace Mission 2005 is very obvious: We are facing the same threat."

http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...rticle_id=4703

The addition of India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia as “observers” to the SCO, coupled with the abrupt rejection of U.S. requests for observer status, raise important questions concerning the organization’s long-term strategic goals and vision.

At a June meeting in Moscow, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a bilateral statement entitled, “World Order in the 21st Century,” that warned against attempts by “outside forces” to dominate global affairs and opposition to attempts to “impose models of social and political development from outside.”

Realizing the importance of a strong Middle East ally in the SCO, Moscow, with the blessing of Beijing, has made Iran a high organizational priority. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Ambassador to Russia Gholam-Reza Ansari met in July to discuss the importance of Iran’s membership in the SCO. The Iranian ambassador indicated that he hoped the SCO would manage to play an active role in “settling” regional issues.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev recently boasted,

“The organization [SCO] now represents half of all humankind.”

[Kaiser of Arabia]

Looks like someone needs a bombing raid or two...

[Don Corleone]

Looks like someone needs a bombing raid or two...

Kaiser, as somebody who likes you and thinks there's something worth saying inside that head of yours.... please stop. Your comments in this vein do not help. For one thing, were we to bomb China, or Russia for that matter, announcing our intention would be the last thing we would do. You're clearly not helping us advance policy, would that be the case.

But more importantly, IT ISN'T!!! I know you have a strong sense of right and wrong and sometimes it gets misappropriated into over the top statements such as these. I know you have a strong learning of history, and a keen intelligence to learn the lessons to be gleaned there. So let me ask you, when have the policies you jokingly advocate ever worked, anywhere, for more than 1 generation? And if they are just a joke, please, work harder to imply the tongue in cheek.

I like you a lot man, and you're got a good head on your shoulders, but please, enough of the 'they disagreed with us, let's bomb them. They didn't agree quick enough... bomb 'em anyway'. Even if you're right, you're reading our playbook out loud.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

The above was a joke (if it wasn't I most likely would have gone into a 2 and a half hour long rant on why China and Russia sucks), I was merely implying that they are out of line by thinking they can intimidate us so easily, and if they feel they can threaten us, then they have another thing coming, that's all.

[Red Harvest]

Sharrukin,

GAH! Russia suffers more from wounded pride then anything else. Russia made its own mess in Chechnya. If anything the U.S. gave the Russians far too much leeway when they were aggressive with Chechnya in the early 90's. That war came from failing to come to an agreement with the Chechens as they had with Tatarstan. Beslan, etc. sprung from that horrendous Russian mistake, not from anything the U.S. did. I can't blame Russia for going in the 2nd time, and agree it had to be done. However, I haven't forgotten which nation started the mess, AND the one in Afghanistan.

Russia contributed greatly to Serbian aggession by supporting them despite their ethnic cleansing. Slavic racism was also manipulated by Russia in supporting Serbia and originally taking a hard line with Chechnya. The Russians have tried to openly thwart democracy in their neighbors and the chicken's are coming to roost. After watching the Russians abandon their post in Bosnia to invade Kosova, it became pretty clear that they had no business being involved at all in the peace process there.

[Azi Tohak]

Sharrukin,

GAH! Russia suffers more from wounded pride then anything else. Russia made its own mess in Chechnya. If anything the U.S. gave the Russians far too much leeway when they were aggressive with Chechnya in the early 90's. That war came from failing to come to an agreement with the Chechens as they had with Tatarstan. Beslan, etc. sprung from that horrendous Russian mistake, not from anything the U.S. did. I can't blame Russia for going in the 2nd time, and agree it had to be done. However, I haven't forgotten which nation started the mess, AND the one in Afghanistan.

Russia contributed greatly to Serbian aggession by supporting them despite their ethnic cleansing. Slavic racism was also manipulated by Russia in supporting Serbia and originally taking a hard line with Chechnya. The Russians have tried to openly thwart democracy in their neighbors and the chicken's are coming to roost. After watching the Russians abandon their post in Bosnia to invade Kosova, it became pretty clear that they had no business being involved at all in the peace process there.

Thank you!

But to be honest, the less the US (and our buisnesses) have to do with Stalin Mk. II (Putin), the happier I am going to be. The country is screwed up enough right now as it is, and because of the astonishing levels of corruption, it is foolish to invest anything in that nation. I think it is sad. Russia has so much going for it... but the country continues to strangle itself.

Azi

[sharrukin]

Sharrukin,

GAH! Russia suffers more from wounded pride then anything else.

Is that all!
And what did Nazi Germany suffer from following the Versaille treaty?
Humiliation is the fastest way possible to create an enemy.

Russia made its own mess in Chechnya. If anything the U.S. gave the Russians far too much leeway when they were aggressive with Chechnya in the early 90's.

It isn't up to the Americans to grant "leeway" to Russia, Europe, or China. This kind of arrogance has alienated much of the world and may very well succeed in creating a powerful bloc of nation to oppose them. As someone from the west I do not think this is in anyone's best interest.

That war came from failing to come to an agreement with the Chechens as they had with Tatarstan.

The fact that Russia did come to an agreement with the Tatars would suggest that they were not the one's who didn't want such an agreement. Al Qaeda doesn't seem inclined to make deals.

Beslan, etc. sprung from that horrendous Russian mistake, not from anything the U.S. did. I can't blame Russia for going in the 2nd time, and agree it had to be done. However, I haven't forgotten which nation started the mess, AND the one in Afghanistan.

Beslan was Russia's fault! Then that makes the Two Towers America's fault doesn't it? Or is that not how it works?

Our terrorists are good freedom fighters and the one's we don't like are just plain terrorists! Sorry but putting a gun to a childs head and pulling the trigger doesn't get a pass from me, and I don't care how sad the story might be!

The US went to Vietnam, but that doesn't excuse Vietcong atrocities... or American one's.

Americans playing footsies with an Al Qaeda linked terror group would suggest that their war on terror is nothing but a sham. I certainly hope this isn't the case but the US and her allies seems to show up time and time again as Al Qaeda's biggest supporter. Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Kosovo, Bosnia, Chechnya.

Russia contributed greatly to Serbian aggession by supporting them despite their ethnic cleansing.

And the United States and Europe contributed greatly to Bosnian and Kosovar aggression by supporting them despite their ethnic cleansing. Despite their links to Al Qaeda, despite drug smuggling and organized crime. Oh, wait...thats right...only the Serbs engaged in ethnic cleansing, not the nice Croats or Bosnians. What was Operation Storm?

After watching the Russians abandon their post in Bosnia to invade Kosova, it became pretty clear that they had no business being involved at all in the peace process there.

Russia invaded Kosovo? Wow! I did miss a lot!
Well you may get your wish. They don't seem all that interested in the peace process anymore!