TABLE 1. Projections of the peaking of world oil production.
Projected Date Source of Projection Background & Reference
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2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S. Iranian oil executive a
2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment banker b
After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal editor c
Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Oil company geologist (ret.) d
Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice provost, Cal. Tech e
Around 2010 Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist (ret.) f
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After 2010 World Energy Council World non-government org. g
2010-2020 Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist (ret.) h
2016 EIA nominal case DOE analysis/ information i
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After 2020 CERA Energy consultants j
2025 or later Shell Major oil company k
No visible peak Lynch, M.C. Energy economist l
a Bakhtiari, A.M.S. "World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07," Oil and Gas Journal, April 26, 2004.
b Simmons, M. R., ASPO Workshop. May 26, 2003.
c Skrebowski, C., "Oil Field Mega Projects - 2004," Petroleum Review, January 2004.
d Deffeyes, K. S., "Hubbert's Peak-The Impending World Oil Shortage," Princeton University Press. 2003.
e Goodstein, D., "Out of gas - the end of the age of oil," W.W. Norton, 2004.
f Campbell, C. J. , "Industry urged to watch for regular oil production peaks, depletion signals," Oil and Gas Journal, July 14, 2003;
g "Drivers of the energy scene," World Energy Council. 2003.
h Laherrere, J. Seminar Center of Energy Conversion. Zurich. May 7, 2003
i DOE EIA. "Long- term world oil supply." April 18, 2000. See Appendix I for discussion.
j Jackson, P. et al. "Triple witching hour for oil arrives early in 2004 - but, as yet, no real witches." CERA Alert. April 7, 2004.
k Davis, G. "Meeting future energy needs," The Bridge. National Academies Press, Summer 2003.
l Lynch, M. C., "Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers' assessment." Oil and Gas Journal, July 14, 2003.
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