Relief effort has racial element?

[yesdachi]

Who would 'they' be? Ah, the evil government! I thought you would never rely on the goverment, Gawain?

Really, nearly everything you have posted about Katrina has been self-defeating. Remember that paranoid Boontz-blog you quoted? The one with the racist undertones that said the NO authorities demanded that everyone hand in their guns when they entered the Superdome so they would be easy prey for gangs and rapists? Man, oh man...

I believe they would have also been the “media” and everyone listens to them.

[Red Harvest]

Apparently both the State and the City had one. This is the Louisiana plan. I can't seem to find the City of New Orleans plan.

Here is a line-up of crucial episodes by the BBC which is still tentative, I guess, in the sense that reporters don't know what went on behind the screens. It is being updated once a day.

There are some major errors in the early time line for that BBC report. It looks like parts of it are confusing Greenwich time/dates with local time/dates. Evacuation was ordered by Nagin on the afternoon of the 27th in New Orleans. It was made mandatory at 9 AM on the 28th--the BBC appears to have confused the two and ignored the initial evacuation calls. The situation did worsen rapidly from the initial impressions and by late Saturday it had shifted into worst fear mode. (Prior to that the storm path shifted from the Florida panhandle to New Orleans rapidly as well.)

The impression I had at the time was that even though everyone realised this one could be a problem, it went from Category 1 to Category 5 so fast, and shifted paths so fundamentally, that the apparatus of evacuation was in "catch-up" mode.

By the time Bush and the LA governor called for a mandatory it was already in place... By noon the contraflow traffic system was established. This still would have given less than 12 hours of effective evacuation time at max capacity.

[Adrian II]

Evacuation was ordered by Nagin on the afternoon of the 27th in New Orleans. It was made mandatory at 9 AM on the 28th -- the BBC appears to have confused the two and ignored the initial evacuation calls.

According to CNN, Nagin advised evacuation on Saturday 27 and made it mandatory at 10 am on Sunday. Blanco and Barbour had already declared emergency status on Friday 26 around 4 pm.

As for evacuation times, the rule of thumb in emergency situations in modern cities is 4 times the normal time needed to leave a city, provided of course that exit roads are not blocked (one-way outbound traffic must be guaranteed by traffic control) and public transport is available for those without cars. Assuming the normal time to be an average of 2 hours, that makes 8 hours. Plus 4 for packing and other eventualitiesm that makes twelve. However, you are probably right that the metropolitan area is particularly difficult to evacuate. In the Louisiana Hurricane Evacuation Plan it says:

• The Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area represents a difficult
  evacuation problem due to the large population and it’s unique layout.
• This area is located in a floodplain much of which lies below sea level
  and is surrounded by an extensive marine estuarine system of lakes,
  canals, bayous, the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River. Some
  parish storm drainage systems discharge into area waterways. High
  water levels would impede adequate pumping and prevent relief against
  flooding from heavy rainfall.
• It will take a long time to evacuate large numbers of people from the
  Region.
• The road systems used for evacuations are limited, and many of the
  roadways are near bodies of water and susceptible to flooding.

Mind you, three-quarter of residents of the wider area did get out in time. There were traffic jams, as there always are, but they were resolved as they always are. Bo broken bridges, no flooded roads. Most people drove out along the assigned E-roads by private means as the Plan states in its list of 'Assumptions':

• The primary means of hurricane evacuation will be personal vehicles.
  School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles
  provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation
  for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in
  evacuating.

Those left behind were in many cases literally left behind. There were no buses. In the Plan's paragraph on 'Recommended Evacuation' (the stage preceding mandatory evacuation) one of the first items mentioned is this:

• Mobilize parish/local transportation to assist persons who
  lack transportation or who have mobility problems.

I keep wondering where those buses were. Maybe you are right and it is just because I am a European. But they were part of the plan...

[Redleg]

To address Adrian and Red Harvests points.

Well last time I took a road trip down to New Orleans - I saw only three ways into the city. One was from the West on I-10 over the swamp. THe other was also I-10 from the east over the lake and a swamp. And a two lane road that was from the north - again over a swamp. One can not think of evacuation of New Orleans in the context of any European or any other United States City. New Orleans has very limited access points by the means of a ground road network. One of those ways out of the city is directlty into the storm. That left the two other ways that I know of. There might be others - but New Orleans is not a city with multiple exits in multiple directions as seen in any other city in the United States.

.

[Adrian II]

One can not think of evacuation of New Orleans in the context of any European or any other United States City.

Nonetheless, eighty percent of inhabitants made it out of the city between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning. The other twenty percent were either left behind or determined to stay behind. Based on the reports we are getting about the latter (who are now being coaxed out of their homes one by one) many of those stayed behind to protect their property (homes, shops, workplaces, cars and other collectibles) because they had no confidence that the government would be able to prevent looting in the first place.

[Red Harvest]

Blanco and Barbour had already declared emergency status on Friday 26 around 4 pm

I'm not sure that is correct. At that time the storm was not that strong and was over Florida. It was 8AM Saturday when it started to really strengthen. There was a meeting about Hurricane Cindy (previous month) about the time you report, and an initial emergency declaration letter was sent to Bush by Blanco sometime that day (likely as a result of some of the experiences with Cindy and the meeting.)

• Mobilize parish/local transportation to assist persons who
  lack transportation or who have mobility problems.

I keep wondering where those buses were. Maybe you are right and it is just because I am a European. But they were part of the plan...

They were part of the plan, but they were not available in sufficient number. This was a recognized deficiency in the FEMA test run. It was already expected that a substantial portion of the population would be unable to get out.

You not only must have the buses (and drivers)--no small task in a city with such a large poor population--but you must also have TIME. You can't collect and load and get out instantly. Lacking time, local officials moved those who could not get out by BUS to the Superdome. This was a collection effort that was underway to use what buses they had.

As I've also said, I saw quite a few buses leaving the city in webcams during the Sunday evacaution.

Note: "Adised evacuation" = voluntary vacuation. The U.S. doesn't typically go to mandatory right away. People were starting to respond, but it isn't instantaneous.

As for why New Orleans might not have responded as vigorously: they had a levee that was good to Category 3. Having that back up makes decision making slower and more complex. Exactly when do you switch from "ride it out" to "head for the hills?"

Curfew was at 6 PM on Sunday, so with hurricane force winds expected by midnight, I'll bet vehicular traffic had been halted by 9 PM. No way would that be enough time. Not even close.

[Adrian II]

Curfew was at 6 PM on Sunday, so with hurricane force winds expected by midnight, I'll bet vehicular traffic had been halted by 9 PM. No way would that be enough time. Not even close.

I still think you are underestimating human resilience and determination. Eighty percent made it out of the city in time. Another ten percent could have made it if there had been enough buses (yes, Red Harvest, obviously with drivers in them).

Apparently the mayor initially wasn't informed of the areas of last refuge such as the Dome, the Goveror was informed much later and Fema was informed only on Thursday. There should be better feedback loops in future, ones that take into account the fact that local authorities are unilkely to expose their weak spots or direct outside (federal, press) attention to the local cupboards with the most corpses in them.

[Red Harvest]

Nonetheless, eighty percent of inhabitants made it out of the city between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning.

Monday morning doesn't figure in at all. There could not have been any substantial traffic by Sunday midnight. I remember checking a webcam that evening and not a single vehicle was visible when I checked. Most likely it ended at least 3 hours before midnight. In essense, you have a window of about 30 hours total for the evacuation. That's not much. The easily mobile who understood the gravity of the situation did get out as a result. Others could not.

As Redleg noted: New Orleans is a special case like few other cities The closest comparison that comes to mind is Seattle...if it has an "event" related to Mt. Ranier, sections would be trapped in congested North-South corridors.

[Tribesman]

but New Orleans is not a city with multiple exits in multiple directions as seen in any other city in the United States.
New Orleans is just the same as any other city /town /village on the coast Redleg . In fact some cities would have even less major roadways .

[Xiahou]

But in any event, there was no plan for a major strengthening. This would have taken billions of dollars and many years.

Cutting the levee budget was an easy sell I'd wager. Many conservatives didn't want to spend the money and environmentalist lefties railed against larger levee systems for their own reasons. No one was interested in investing more resources on the levees- even the NY Times called the project bad legislation and a waste of money.

[Adrian II]

In essense, you have a window of about 30 hours total for the evacuation. That's not much.

Once again: eighty percent made it, no matter how many difficulties you perceive. And perhaps another ten percent would have made it if...

Of course we are speaking in normative terms. If you have a President who declares that 'nobody had expected those levees to break' it becomes a whole different game.

[Adrian II]

As Redleg noted: New Orleans is a special case like few other cities The closest comparison that comes to mind is Seattle...if it has an "event" related to Mt. Ranier, sections would be trapped in congested North-South corridors.

I have looked into their plan for comparison and it looks a darn sight better.

[Red Harvest]

Another ten percent could have made it if there had been enough buses (yes, Red Harvest, obviously with drivers in them).

It appears that many actually did take refuge in shelters of last resort. They took refuge, but weren't evacuated promptly.

The drivers comment wasn't smart alecky, it was an implication of the need for time. You have to assemble the folks and give them instructions, routes, etc. Time was THE commodity in short supply. When you start trying to work backwards in time on this, you quickly run out of it.

Apparently the mayor initially wasn't informed of the areas of last refuge such as the Dome, the Goveror was informed much later and Fema was informed only on Thursday.

That's not accurate. The Dome was being used fairly early on, that was planned in advance, and I remember that people had been backed up waiting for 6 hours as the buses were collecting people. Anyone watching the news knew about many of these shelters several days before FEMA did. That's why several of the reporters ripped into Brown when he said they didn't know until Thursday.

The Feds didn't even make an effort to get fuel to the emergency generators in hospitals on time. Come on. It's not like any of the hospitals moved overnight...and everyone knew they were without regular grid power. All in all it is clear that the Feds had no prioritized list. They were winging it...very slowly.

Local command and communication had been destoryed by the storm. No surprise there either. You can't expect them to be doing many missions with so few people, resources, and without communication infrastructure.

[Red Harvest]

Once again: eighty percent made it, no matter how many difficulties you perceive. And perhaps another ten percent would have made it if...

And ~10% were in fact moved to shelters by buses/foot traffic in the time available. And 10% couldn't/wouldn't get out in the time available. So what is the point? Unless you had the bus plan worked out well in advance and brought in many OUTSIDE buses (meaning it was not local) and had plenty of people to facilitate moving people onto the buses...you still had a huge problem. You also have to move past "mandatory" to "forced" requiring lots of outside law enforcement. Whether you leave behind 10 or 20% you still have a massive number left behind, and you must be planning to supply them promptly until you can evacuate them.

Of course we are speaking in normative terms. If you have a President who declares that 'nobody had expected those levees to break' it becomes a whole different game.

There were plenty including the President and his appointees who seem to have ignored the obvious. I expected much of the city to be swamped on landfall--fortunately the track shifted East and the storm weakened a little. I still think New Orleans was comparitively "lucky" with regards to the storm iteslf. That is why the poor response to the easily foreseen flooding is so frustrating and frightening. This could have been far worse, and nobody outside was prepared except the Coast Guard.

[Red Harvest]

Cutting the levee budget was an easy sell I'd wager. Many conservatives didn't want to spend the money and environmentalist lefties railed against larger levee systems for their own reasons. No one was interested in investing more resources on the levees- even the NY Times called the project bad legislation and a waste of money.

Indeed. It also doesn't help their cause when they are a Democratic bastion in an era of GOP rule. (Same would be true if roles were reversed of course, ugliness of partisan politics.) Some folks resist infrastructure improvements as a matter of course. They will gladly shell out money for the military, but not for infrastructure.

The "environmnetalist lefties" are actually correct to a degree. There is some need to end the loss of the barrier/wetlands area that has resulted from some of the river control. I'm not well informed on how this could be done, but the loss of these areas does make inhabited areas more vulnerable to big storms.

[Adrian II]

And ~10% were in fact moved to shelters by buses/foot traffic in the time available. And 10% couldn't/wouldn't get out in the time available. So what is the point?

The point is there would possibly have been no Superdome tragedy.

There are 7.725 school buses in the State of Louisiana.

Press Release
Louisiana Governor's Office

Date: 9/1/2005

Governor Blanco Announces Executive Order

Baton Rouge, LA— Governor Blanco today announced the following Executive Order:

Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- 31- provides that pursuant to the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., grants emergency powers to the governor, where, she has in consultation with school superintendents, utilized public school buses for transportation of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. As you are aware most public school districts will not begin school until Tuesday, September 6th 2005.

Only on Thursday, my man -- five full days after recommended evacuation was proclaimed.

[Redleg]

but New Orleans is not a city with multiple exits in multiple directions as seen in any other city in the United States.
New Orleans is just the same as any other city /town /village on the coast Redleg . In fact some cities would have even less major roadways .

Care to place a wager on that - New Orleans is in a swamp and in a depression. Not many cities have that constraint. You might want to look at a map of the city and the routes before you attempt to lecture. Then you might want to look at cities in the size range of New Orleans - different size towns and cities require different resources in which to evacuate the citizens.

Not many cities have over 20 miles of bridges to cross to get to the city either.


http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=LA&zipcode=


Now if you look at Houston - A very large city - I know of 5 routes into the city - three of them being major Highways. The map for mapquest shows even more.


http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=Tx&zipcode=


Here is Mobile, Alabama

Look how many major highways plus the numerous state and county roads that lead out of the city.

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=Al&zipcode=

Here is Galveston Texas - a city that was hit several times by hurricanes

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=TX&zipcode=

Here is one for a small town on the east coast in Georgia

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=ga&zipcode=

How about Charleston

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=ga&zipcode=

Looks like three routs for Charleston - two along the coast and one major highway going inland. I could zoom it even farther down and find a few state and county routs.

Again New Orleans is an unique case - there are a few major towns and cities that have the exact same conditions for road networks for evacuation - but its not a common thing like your stating here Tribesman


Notice the difference between all of them Tribesman I won't even go into the the routes out of the West Coast cities. Nor will I go into the differences of sizes, except to state a town or small city of less then 50,000 could be evacuated using a single route if it is organized, A city of 50,000 to 200,000 would begin to have difficultily to evacuate along a single route if it was not organized. A city the size of New Orleans reduced by at least one route would find it difficult to evacuate next to impossible if it was not organized and managed.

The point being is that the Mayor of New Orleans had the obligation to insure the evacuation was organized when he ordered it. The governor of Louisana had the obligation to help the second the city asked for it. The Federal Government had the obligation to activate the FEMA chain the minute the State asked for help. Can anyone state that all three levels of government accomplished their tasks in the manner in which they claimed prior to the event?

I know what I think - all three levels failed. All three failed to consider the unique circumstances of New Orleans in their planning process or worse yet they minimized the difficulty involved (and this is what I believe) - in in their complacency they failed the people of the city of New Orleans misarbly

[Redleg]

Monday morning doesn't figure in at all. There could not have been any substantial traffic by Sunday midnight. I remember checking a webcam that evening and not a single vehicle was visible when I checked. Most likely it ended at least 3 hours before midnight. In essense, you have a window of about 30 hours total for the evacuation. That's not much. The easily mobile who understood the gravity of the situation did get out as a result. Others could not.

You are correct.

As Redleg noted: New Orleans is a special case like few other cities The closest comparison that comes to mind is Seattle...if it has an "event" related to Mt. Ranier, sections would be trapped in congested North-South corridors.

I would say the Tacoma area would be a more valid comprasion. Seattle would still have a few East corridores to move along - however Tocama only has north - south if Mt Raineer ever goes.

[doc_bean]

I don't think there is any intentional, large scale racial element to the relief effort. Like other people have pointed out, it's more of a class thing.

The way the politicians and the media react does however seem to be quite racist. I simply don't understand how politicians can act so cool when something like this happens, I do see this as a sign that there is something wrong with the system. A politician is supposed to stand for all the people under his care, not just the likely voters.

Adrian I really don't see how this has anything to do with big government versus small government. It has everything to with bad government however. The government (whether it be state city or federal) was responsible for the safety of the citizens, they neglected their responsibility. If it were up to me I'd have every one in the chain of command on trial for criminal neglect (or whatever it's called) on a few thousand cases.

Disasters like this have happened in a lot of places, no matter how the media likes to put the spotlight on this event. It is very rare however, to see it handled in such a bad way. I at least hope a lot of money can be raised to help those poor people rebuild their lives. I also hope that money gets to be spend in the right places. I fear a lot of companies involved in the reconstruction will charge a nice little overhead for themselves, just like in Iraq. This however is another issue, and one that does relate to a small government. For another time perhaps....

[Soulforged]

[QUOTE=doc_bean]

I don't think there is any intentional, large scale racial element to the relief effort. Like other people have pointed out, it's more of a class thing.

Well then perhaps the class has sticked to the race.

The way the politicians and the media react does however seem to be quite racist. I simply don't understand how politicians can act so cool when something like this happens, I do see this as a sign that there is something wrong with the system. A politician is supposed to stand for all the people under his care, not just the likely voters.

Well then you don't understand politics. The politicians only think on their next reelection and act oriented for that, they specially favour those who helped them to achieve power, wheter they're voters or corporations, the system works that way.

Disasters like this have happened in a lot of places, no matter how the media likes to put the spotlight on this event. It is very rare however, to see it handled in such a bad way. I at least hope a lot of money can be raised to help those poor people rebuild their lives. I also hope that money gets to be spend in the right places. I fear a lot of companies involved in the reconstruction will charge a nice little overhead for themselves, just like in Iraq. This however is another issue, and one that does relate to a small government. For another time perhaps....

Well here, saving all distances, happened the same. Rich people (the great majority) with minimal problems (like a short cut on the electricity suministre) were helped before the ones dying in Santa Fe. This classing system must be stoped sometime earlier or later, but it's notoriously terrible.

[Devastatin Dave]

Here is some of New Orleans "Finest" "controlling" looters...

http://www.zippyvideos.com/891102377...ng-in-walmart/

Unbelievable, I hope they get athletes foot from those shoes!!!

[Proletariat]

Eh, nm.

[Red Harvest]

I would say the Tacoma area would be a more valid comprasion. Seattle would still have a few East corridores to move along - however Tocama only has north - south if Mt Raineer ever goes.

True, I was actually thinking more of Tacoma than Seattle when I said it, as I've spent more time in the vicinity of it (trying to get in and out of Mccord on space available to/from Alaska.)

[Redleg]

True, I was actually thinking more of Tacoma than Seattle when I said it, as I've spent more time in the vicinity of it (trying to get in and out of Mccord on space available to/from Alaska.)

Well you were not to far off about Seattle either though. Since their is really only one pass that has a major highway through it and its got a lot of hills and one tunnel. I think if Raineer ever blew I-90 would also me shut down given the temors that will most likely follow.

That leaves only going north up the I-5 and the Pacific Coast Highway.

[Red Harvest]

The point is there would possibly have been no Superdome tragedy.

There are 7.725 school buses in the State of Louisiana.

Press Release
Louisiana Governor's Office

Date: 9/1/2005

Governor Blanco Announces Executive Order

Baton Rouge, LA— Governor Blanco today announced the following Executive Order:

Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- 31- provides that pursuant to the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., grants emergency powers to the governor, where, she has in consultation with school superintendents, utilized public school buses for transportation of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. As you are aware most public school districts will not begin school until Tuesday, September 6th 2005.

Only on Thursday, my man -- five full days after recommended evacuation was proclaimed.

Problem is, this wasn't already in place. Even if you have it in place you don't have much time. It needs coordination at state and local level to feed in buses. I'm guessing you need about 2,000 of these buses, with driver, and a guide/security/communications on each one to get the last 20% in New Orleans alone. Turnaround time from call up is probably on the order of 24 hours at best, based on call up time/organization time, travel time, load/collection time, and actual getting the heck out of dodge time (more than 6 hours itself.) Remember, you also have to route them to avoid contraflow congestion etc.

80/20 rule would seem to apply to evacuation. The first 80% won't take much time, the last 20% will require 80% of the effort.

This would need to be repeated for many smaller cities in the area. I believe this is the way we need to go, but it isn't something we are going to be able to do successfully without some forethought. We need to be doing this sort of planning all along the coast, the Mississippi, fault zones, volcanically active areas, etc. It's not so monumental as it sounds once a few model systems are worked out.

[Xiahou]

Here is some of New Orleans "Finest" "controlling" looters...

http://www.zippyvideos.com/891102377...ng-in-walmart/

Unbelievable, I hope they get athletes foot from those shoes!!!

Wow, that's something alright.
So much for being good role models. I hope they at least got to use their nightsticks/badges to reserve the good stuff for themselves.....

You know, when this is all over, I'd be suprised if any of them are disciplined for it.

[Soulforged]

I would like to know something: Is this the kind of looting that has caused the reaction of "shoot the looters"?

[doc_bean]

Well then you don't understand politics. The politicians only think on their next reelection and act oriented for that, they specially favour those who helped them to achieve power, wheter they're voters or corporations, the system works that way.

Actually, if the system would work like it was supposed to, the people who got neglected would vote for someone else next election, ensuring that the politician who wasn't concerned with their needs wouldn't get reelected.

Even if that didn't happen, the people who do vote should be so outraged at the behaviour of their representatives that they won't vote for them anymore either.
Do you think the mayor of New Orleans has a good shot at reelection ? I doubt it.

It seems that some of the politicians who are supposed to be responsible know their career is over and now just don't care anymore. Others (in Congress for instance) know they won't be held accountable personally, and Bush of course, can't get reelected anymore.
Everyone is just looking after their own arse, no one cares about the greater good of society

I would like to know something: Is this the kind of looting that has caused the reaction of "shoot the looters"?

I don't think so, a lot more violent looting has taken place, thios video is only about what happened on the first day...

[English assassin]

A slight detour back to the subject of people's "agendas" and whether its all the fault of big government. (Eh? Whatever)

In one of these threads, someone asked, what was the free market solution to rebuilding NO. By a curious coincidence, (the Org asks, the BBC answers) a congressman interviewed on the BBC on Monday answered exactly that question. He instanced the rebuilding of, I think a highway, it may have been a bridge, somewhere in california. He said that they had been told it would take two years, but by removing red tape and incentivising the contractor it got done in six months.

I despair. Consider:

Presumably even Mr Free Market agrees that bridges and highways should be built to certain specifications. So that, you know, they don't fall down. And those specifications need to be checked by engineers. Government engineers. So all we are arguing about is how much "red tape" there should be. OK, reasonable people may differ on the subject, but its not a profound point.

"Incentivising" contractors means paying them more money to do the job quicker. Taxpayers money, incidentally. Speeding up jobs by paying more does not strike me as a major political insight either.

The REAL free market solution is to allow anyone who wants to to build a bridge anywhere, and allow motorists to choose between them on the basis of the level of toll and how likely the bridge is to fall down due to cost cutting in its construction. Strangely enough no one seems to be advocating this, possibly because it is obviously insane.

Far from the eccentric view that this all proves that government is a bad thing, I have to say the scenes from NO really cause me to question this anti-government orthodoxy. As I understand it, the logic seems to be that incompetent government has failed, therefore the answer is, not better government, but no government. Eh? Bonkers.

And that's from someone who is not ashamed to say he thought both Reagan and Thatcher were, on the whole, good news so don't give me any nonsense about leftist agendas.

Edit

OT, I read in the papers this morning that people are upset that someone in the States has printed a load of T shirts reading "I looted New Orleans and all I got was 30 of these lousy T shirts"

Obviously I am a sick person because I thought that was quite funny, myself.

[Adrian II]

Adrian I really don't see how this has anything to do with big government versus small government. It has everything to with bad government however.

Exactly. I never pleaded for big government in the first place. And doubling the size of a bad government is probably not going to make it much better (or worse, for that matter).

What is essential is peoples' notion of the nature and extent of the common good that a government is supposed to safeguard and enhance. If this notion is minimalist, the end result is a minimal government (a government that leaves children behind, so to speak).