Who is to bame for Katrina.

[Don Corleone]

Krauthammer did a fairly good job of assessing the blame in the response--but only if you ignore his "order" which is totally FUBAR. There are some errors/distortions in his comments (particularly about Nagin and the police) but I'll accept it as a reasonable starting point.

I'll start with this. Nagin did a better job than anyone lese in the operation early on, with the exception of the Coast Guard. Did he make mistakes? You bet, but he fulfilled his primary role. He lacked outside support both from the state and from FEMA. Kraut neglects to mention that 80% of New Orleans got out this time...and that about 10% were in shelters so they didn't have to be rescued from their homes. (Compare that with only 33% getting out in the previous response.) Problem was the outside help was way friggin' late and the Superdome and Convention Center could not be evacuated as anticipated. Put any of the others mentioned in Nagin's place, and you might have been looking at evacuating 2/3 of the population instead of 1/5th.

Hell, the country can't even come to grips with the concept of "mandatory evacuation" even NOW. And Nagin was supposed to do this in 24 hours or so? What sort of weed are folks smokin' these days?

The truth is, this nation is STILL not prepared to evacuate the poor population on short notice. We do need to develop a system for this. And you still can count on about 10% of folks staying unless they have a gun to their heads...that's just the way people in the U.S. are. You won't have time and manpower to forcibly move them, and the nation doesn't have the stomach for it even if the time and manpower was there.

I think the governor deserves a fair bit of blame, but the Guard forces at her disposal were a small fraction of what was needed, and I seriously doubt they had the equipment to handle the job. This is one reason I want an investigation.

Let's not forget Mississippi in all this. Contrary to popular belief, they have been as slow getting aid in a number of areas as New Orleans was. Hmmm...who gets the blame for that?

Geez, I dunno, but let's start with the Governor of Mississippi? I thought the whole news story was New Orleans was a black city, so Bush and Cheney made sure the hurricane damage was extra bad and the relief effort was extra scarce there. Which is it?

Red, I'm sorry man, I'm having a hard time pinning you down on anything other than a 'let's get Bush gloryfest here'.... First, FEMA and the White House were to blame because the poor people weren't evacuated. When it came to light that Mayor Nagin let a couple of hundred busses collect rust rather than use them, you all start with this campaign of "the poor should have been protected, not dragged away". Other than "let's get Bush", what are you trying to say?

I will grant you that the federal response on this disaster was pathetic. But despite your claims to the contrary, you make a lot of statements that indicate you seem to think it begins and ends with another Bush/Cheney get-rich-quick scheme. Dude, you're a smart man. You gotta let the anger go and understand...not everything is George W Bush's fault. Christ, I feel like Leon Paneta in 1997.

Bush, Chertoff and Brown did a terrible job on this. But the point is, they (and a boatload of administrations before them) had already sent money and plans to the State of Louisiana to deal with the crisis. The fact that Lousiana politics ranks up there the 5 families in terms of honesty and legality isn't Bush's fault. When a dam breaks in my town, I don't blame the White House, I blame first my city, then my county, then my state. Criminy, man, do you really want FEMA kicking your doors in and evacuating you the next time you have a tornado watch?

[Zalmoxis]

Why can't we just all say it happened because it did, and finish these discussions? Please?

[Aenlic]

Because we love to place blame, and it's a political creature from the outset simply because the blame goes to the politicians.

Even Colin Powell weighed in on the blaming today, taking the egalitarian stance that we all agree with in part or in whole that every level of government dropped the ball. He called for an investigation to find the reasons at each level. But when you have the area commander of the Army Corps of Engineers saying that they did a cost-benefit analysis and determined that protecting for a level 3 was the best option; then it's pretty clear that the final culprit is going to be money. Whether that money wasn't spent, wasn't appropriated, didn't get to the right people, whatever, is perhaps a cause for investigation; but in the end it's going to be money as the root cause. And that's really sad; because the final cost of this disaster is going to be orders of magnitude higher than the initial cost would have been for prevention. Not just in the short term; but in the long term. The CBO just recently said that this disaster could possible reduce the GDP by as much as a full percent, maybe more. The toxic sludge we're pumping, with unarguable necessity, into the local waters is going to devastate fishing and shrimping and the oyster industry of the area for decades, maybe destroy them entirely. There will be enough blame to go around.

[Aenlic]

And local. And it runs across many different agencies at all levels as well, including the military. Even though blaming the military for anything these days gets one immediately branded a traitor.

[PanzerJaeger]

Charles Krauthammer is a pretty smart guy. I usually always agree with him, although thats probably not the best endorsment.

I agree with the basics of his blame assessment, even the part about the American people. I hope he does write that article he was saving for another day - im interested.

[bmolsson]

I guess only God can be blamed for the hurricane itself, many can be blamed for not doing what they where supposed to do after the event, just to read their job description.....

[Tribesman]

Who is to blame ?
The Iranians , invade now .
They have a secret program , in violation of all the treaties , to develop Windfans of Massive Destruction , we know they have these windfans , we have evidence , we know where they are , and that is a...eh...um...FACT .

[Adrian II]

Why can't we just all say it happened because it did, and finish these discussions? Please?

Because 'it' meant death for hundreds of people, partly as the result of human and political failure. Mistakes were made at all levels, that has become obvious. Alas, I have seen few contributions that do anything more than hand out blame, re-apportion the blame and then re-apportion it some more.

One thing that surprises me is nobody picked up on recent examples of successful evacuations which I mentioned in several threads: China and Cuba for instance. Both of them have 'big government', a phenomenon that is usually associated with horrible inefficiency and a blatant disregard for human life. Strangely, in both cases these big governments were able to evacuate more than a million people within 24 hours and do so practically without any loss of life except in areas where the very worst part of the hurricanes struck.

It is not enough to point to that 'other' disaster, namely 9/11, as proof that American emergency management is up the its tasks. New York's apparent preparedness on 9/11 and the city's courageous and adequate reaction to the Twin Tower attacks were possible because all emergency management infrastructure was untouched; law enforcement and emergency services were left intact; their staff still had homes and families to fall back on; their offices were fully functioning; their equipment was lined up for them like it always used to; their means of communication were fine, etcetera.

What would have happened to New York if this enormous governmental and pphysical infrastructure had been severely damaged on 9/11? Would the people of New York have been able to rely on themselves, their neighbours and friends to do all the things that their professional services were unable to do for them? Would three be any human infrastructure to fall back on? Clearly, in New Orleans this human infrastructure was lacking.

The fact of the matter is that it is not such a big deal to organise people in cities or in the countryside for emergencies and to rehearse various drills geared to different kinds of emergencies. All it takes is time and money on the part of the government and a minimal sense of purpose and responsibility on the part of the population. One would not be possible without the other. Both are lacking more and more in our type of society. Why is that?

[Don Corleone]

Okay Red, you tell me... below you will see the central bus depot for the school board for the City of New Orleans on September 1, 2005. Does it look to you that local and state officials did everything they could do? If this is Bush's fault, what are you blaming him for, not driving the buses himself?

I know how badly you want this to be about Bush. And as I've said repeatedly, the federal government's response to the crisis was woefully inadequate and showed a frightening lack of preparedness. But they are not the chief culprits. They should have been a safety net, not the primary responders.

[Red Harvest]

Okay Red, you tell me... below you will see the central bus depot for the school board for the City of New Orleans on September 1, 2005. Does it look to you that local and state officials did everything they could do? If this is Bush's fault, what are you blaming him for, not driving the buses himself?

I know how badly you want this to be about Bush. And as I've said repeatedly, the federal government's response to the crisis was woefully inadequate and showed a frightening lack of preparedness. But they are not the chief culprits. They should have been a safety net, not the primary responders.

No, the truth is that too many folks want to give Dubya's administration a pass for being asleep behind the wheel. For once in his pampered life he should have to take responsibility for his actions.

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net. This from those who have most capitalized on 9/11. Damn right I'm mad, this is the sort of thing that I thought they were supposed to be preparing for. This is not how a national response should work. Obviously, nobody in the leadership chain learned their lessons.

Count those buses...looks like a lot, but not nearly enough when you work out the math. Why are they parked? I don't know, that is something I want to know as well. Why weren't they used? Who can authorize the drivers and call them up? Is there a clear way to do that? Someone from the school board I presume once they get a request? How many of the drivers would have still been available by the time they were called up (not having already left?) Again I don't know.

If you want to put primary blame on New Orleans for the mess you are hitting far wide of the mark. People in Mississippi and other parts of Louisiana are also not getting help. They've been left on their own as well.

New Orleans did the primary job of keeping most of its citizens alive through the storm hit. Like it or not, that is the truth. Could they have done better? Almost certainly, but 100% evacuation wasn't going to happen no matter how good their plan and support from outside, probably 90% was the most realistic target. Blaming New Orleans is like blaming the seat belts for an ambulance not showing up until 4 days after an accident.

[Adrian II]

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net.

Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me...

[Redleg]

Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me...

Sounds like The Netherlands needs to learn from the mistakes the United States has made in the planning, preparation, and recovery process of an emergency diaster that overwelms the local authority.

[Franconicus]

Hear hear! This is exactly what is worrying me about The Netherlands and our reaction to a possible major disaster, be it natural or terrorist or accidental in origin. We have all sorts of local networks to guard dykes, to douse fires, to sandbag villages and towns, to take care of victims, to transport necessary materials. But what if those very networks are destroyed in the way they were detroyed in NO by Katrina? Where is the national safety net, where are the competent professionals? It seems that supreme control will be in the hands of a newly-formed national emergency board of 12 civil servants, who will supposedly be headed by the Minister of the Interior during an emergency. Most of these 12 represent different ministries and services.

That equals twelve FEMA's, if you ask me...

Adrian,
I really think that the EU will react much better than the US did. I know that Germany for example has almost everything you need, technical specialists and equipment, mobile hospitals and camps, military ... . And we have enough experience with floods.

[Don Corleone]

WE HAVE NO SAFETY NET! DON'T YOU GET IT??? The safety net isn't there. A lot of bluster and talk, but no net. This from those who have most capitalized on 9/11. Damn right I'm mad, this is the sort of thing that I thought they were supposed to be preparing for. This is not how a national response should work. Obviously, nobody in the leadership chain learned their lessons.

I DO get it. I said SHOULD have functioned as a safety net. They failed, IMHO. But a safety net is a backup plan. Yes, I'm pissed that the backup plan failed. But what about the plan itself? Did the State of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans really have no culpability? They continued to zone residences 8 feet below sea level on the flood delta for the largest river in North America, and somehow that's Bush's fault? They decided to let hundreds of busses sit unused and get their own sorry asses out instead of looking to their people, and that's Bush's fault? Yes, plenty of other areas were hit and devestated, but as far as I know, the rap against Bush is that aid took too long to reach New Orleans afterwards. If you're holding him accountable for the storm itself (which did hit other areas) then we've got a whole other debate on.

Honestly Red, is any statement other than "Every last death was 100% Bush's fault", going to satisfy you? I said he did a terrible job. I said Chertoff and Brown did too. I said they were in no way shape or form prepared. But it wasn't their primary responsbility and I hold those who it was to task first. If somebody breaks into your house, and they never catch the guy who did it, is that Bush's fault or your local police chief's? It's actually a fit analogy... Bush could have done more on the macro-scale to prevent crime nationwide, but is it his fault that your TV is missing?

[Proletariat]

Count those buses...looks like a lot, but not nearly enough when you work out the math.

Refuted.

Thanks to Tom for spotting these buses. I count 146 of them at that facility, which is on Canal Street and less than a mile from the Superdome.

Figure these buses have 60 or so seats on them. That adds up to an additional 9,000 or so passengers who could have ridden them out of New Orleans ahead of the storm and the flood in one trip. If Ebbert had followed the plan.

It's just a couple of blocks from the Ray Nagin Memorial Motor Pool. It could have been emptied after the flood, though that seems unlikely. If it was emptied before the flood, why wasn't the other one? They're not far apart. Here's a link to a wide shot that shows both facilities. The Nagin Memorial Pool is in the lower left, if Google Earth's links are working right. They've been a bit screwy.

http://junkyardblog.net/archives/wee...28.html#004757

[Red Harvest]

Refuted.

How exactly is that "refuted?" Those buses still would only carry a small percentage of those left behind, which is what I said in the first place. Yes, they could have helped, but they weren't early enough.

[Red Harvest]

Red, I'm sorry man, I'm having a hard time pinning you down on anything other than a 'let's get Bush gloryfest here'.... First, FEMA and the White House were to blame because the poor people weren't evacuated. When it came to light that Mayor Nagin let a couple of hundred busses collect rust rather than use them, you all start with this campaign of "the poor should have been protected, not dragged away". Other than "let's get Bush", what are you trying to say?

Don,

I don't think any of you wanting to pin this on the locals have really tried to work through the timeline on this in an honest fashion. This has a "friction of battle" aspect to it, and an emergency force completely overwhelmed for 24 hours.

First, I've not heard a clear story on the buses. A couple hundred were not sufficient to do the task, so it is a red herring anyway. I did see a number of buses leaving on the causeway cam (~2 in each snapshot), so those who think buses weren't used appear to have been incorrect. There was really only enough time for a one way trip out. Two hundred buses is only about 10% of what was needed. Plus they needed destinations...and they needed some organized pick up. The whole damned system was non-existent on several levels and you want it made up in 24 hours? Ain't gonna happen. That's where the "national no response plan" falls apart. The shelter of last resort was a bit of stopgap and it would have worked passably if buses or airlift had been used after the storm. Instead, the baton was not picked up by Federal or State when it was learned New Orleans would need complete evacuation after the storm.

More importantly, had this been a completely unanticipated event, we showed that it would take over 5 days for the Feds to respond. How in the hell can we expect locals to respond in 24 hours, and Feds/State to take 5 days??? Blaming it on the system doesn't work. Sure, it slows things down, but 5 days???

Bush has completely failed in his supposed goal to make this country safer. In fact, right now we look more vulnerable than before 9/11, because enemies now know we have no plan for responding to a big disaster. You can argue about whose fault this is, but it needs to be fixed, pronto. Why am I so angry? Because the key plank of the GOP is that "we can protect the country and the other guys can't." That has been the primary reason given for electing/re-electing them. Yet when it comes time to deliver, they can't do it, or even come close. The excuse? Blame it on the locals.

That is why we need a full independent investigation. All levels of the response need to be evaluated. More importantly as a nation we need to get serious about doing things like this right. There is a lot of work needed to developing a true response plan, not just a couple of lines saying "this is what we'll do" but of working out how you do it, and how you do it in a short period of time.