Merkel and Shroeder

[Kanamori]

I am curious, what do all of you guys, especially our German .Org members, think about the economic and social issues in the election? Do you think Merkel will get a significant majority? Personally, I cannot comment too much, because I do not have all the backround info that led up to this point, but it sounds to me like Merkel might be what the slowing economy needs.

[Byzantine Prince]

I think the Socialists should win. They've done well so far, even if they have indeed stagnated the economy, Germany is still the most industrious nation in Europe. They are doing very good in my opinion.

Why anyone would vote for a Christian Democrat is beyond me. I guess it's still better then the conservativism we have here in Canada. A bunch of US conservative clones they all are.

[PanzerJaeger]

The whole thing is a depressing situation. At this point I would go for just about anybody over Shroeder.

[scooter_the_shooter]

Byz cut it out....you are no different then the people who want state sponsored religion (only you want to take away religion)...just because some one is not some atheist with no morals (as you have admitted) does not mean they will be a bad leader!


Why do you hate us christians people so much?

[Strike For The South]

I dont like shroeder he gets in our way so vote for the other guy

[Marcellus]

vote for the other guy

Or, in this case, woman.

To be honest, I don't know who would be a better chancellor. I don't like the idea of a party that affiliates itself with only one religion: if it comes into power that would mean that the country would be run pretty much entirely by Christians only, with very little representation to anyone else. On the other hand, Schroeder doesn't seem to have done the German economy a great deal of good. Whether Merkel would do any better is not known.

[Byzantine Prince]

Byz cut it out....you are no different then the people who want state sponsored religion (only you want to take away religion)

I think that's very different.

Why do you hate us christians people so much?

I was Christian 2 years ago. They reason I strongly dislike Christians will not be repeated for it has already earned me a much deserved warning.

[KukriKhan]

@B.Prince: your observance of forums rules is commendable, and noted.

@Ceasar010: BP studied religions, including christianity (I don't know how thoroughly). His studies led him to deeply disagree with christianity's history of results. Not all Tavernites agree with him, but he holds his beliefs quite passionately - as he is entitled. He and you might be interested in PM traffic to explore his reasoning. In this publicly-viewed forum, BP correctly declines to engage in a conversation that could easily descend into a chance to 'bash' a group.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

@B.Prince: your observance of forums rules is commendable, and noted.

Byzantine_Prince.warning_level = 8.5;
//warning_level is int so rounds to 9

[AntiochusIII]

Byzantine_Prince.warning_level = 8.5;
//warning_level is int so rounds to 9

Be careful. BP bashing could result in some unintended transfering of his warning points to you.

Just a cheerful warning.

[Stefan the Berserker]

Video 1 ; Video 2 ; Video 3 ; Video 4

Wählt SPD!!! Heute geht's um die Wurst!

Vote SPoG!!! It's going to become a close match!

[A.Saturnus]

Wählt SPD!!! Heute geht's um die Wurst!

Unless you live in Dresden, then it´s 2nd of october.

I´m surprised, already three threads over the German election.
Although it might be a good sign to have a woman as chancellor and a homosexual as vice-chancellor, I´d prefer Schröder. He´s the lesser evil. A lot of things I don´t like about his government but Merkel has only pseudo-solutions, plus she will need at least a legislative period to get a grip on the situation. Actually governing is always different than making plans in opposition. If Schröder is confirmed, he has a free hand to do whatever reforms he needs to do.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Unless you live in Dresden, then it´s 2nd of october.

I´m surprised, already three threads over the German election.
Although it might be a good sign to have a woman as chancellor and a homosexual as vice-chancellor, I´d prefer Schröder. He´s the lesser evil. A lot of things I don´t like about his government but Merkel has only pseudo-solutions, plus she will need at least a legislative period to get a grip on the situation. Actually governing is always different than making plans in opposition. If Schröder is confirmed, he has a free hand to do whatever reforms he needs to do.

i am totally disconnected, but how would a majority of CDU supporters support guido westerwelle as VC? Some say that they hardly have a chance of forming a govt with the liberals. an alternative would be a grand coalition, but this would be deadlock. any other viable alternatives?

[_Martyr_]

Red Red Green is possible but very unlikely. At this stage its really hard to see where this is going.

[A.Saturnus]

Tentative result: all lose

Red/green is voted off.
Merkel has most votes, but not enough to form a government with the FDP.
FDP has won many new votes but it´s still not enough. And they don´t want a stop-light, so it´s opposition again.
Lafontaine is in the parliament but got below 10%.

Since Westerwelle and Lafontaine both don´t want to make a coalition with SPD, grand coalition is the only option. And who will be chancellor?

Total chaos - I´m not disappointed!

[Sjakihata]

Can someone explain to me who is going to be chancelor of germany?

to me it seems, that Merkels party got most votes (35,2) and schroeder got (33,7). however, the Merkel block has a total of ca 45% and Schröder has 50,7.

does this mean that schröder continues in his office?

[ICantSpellDawg]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

[Sjakihata]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

yes, it's based on exit polls, which are quite accurate.

i guess the party leaders respectively will have to conclude negotiations before a final result can be presented. it would be easier if a german patron could explain fully, though.

[Xiahou]

If Schröder is confirmed, he has a free hand to do whatever reforms he needs to do.

Hasn't he had that for 7 yrs?

[Leodegar]

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

[Xiahou]

If no majority coalition can be formed, doesn't the president have the authority to name the party with a plurality as in charge?

[ICantSpellDawg]

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

my bet is on the jamaica coalition. the greens have the opportunity to regulate a more pro-business coalition

at the same time, the traffic light would be practical - and it may be best for the CDU in the longer run. if they are in a grand coalition with the SPD you can guarantee that the SPD will sabotage any reform that would make the CDU look good at the expense of social welfare programs.

next election if the traffic doesnt get enough done, the SPD will lose many, many votes and the CDU can claim that they had nothing to do with the squandered 4 years

[Leodegar]

If no majority coalition can be formed, doesn't the president have the authority to name the party with a plurality as in charge?

No. The president has only representive duties and no real power at all. A tribute to the Weimar Republic, when the Reichspresident used his power to establish Hitler as Chancellor...

[Leodegar]

at the same time, the traffic light would be practical - and it may be best for the CDU in the longer run. if they are in a grand coalition with the SPD you can guarantee that the SPD will sabotage any reform that would make the CDU look good at the expense of social welfare programs.

next election if the traffic doesnt get enough done, the SPD will lose many, many votes and the CDU can claim that they had nothing to do with the squandered 4 years

I agree on your opinion about that beeing best for CDU in the long run. However, there are some difficulties within the CDU. Merkel has strong opposition in her own party, so at least she can't plan long term. For her it's a now or never situation. If she can't get chancellor now, she won't get a second chance.
This situation, of course makes it intresting for some second row politicians in the CDU to work against a Jamaica or Big Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor, hoping to be the next CDU candidate for Chancellor in 4 years. So additional to all confusions caused by the election result, there are also intrigues within the parties ;)

[A.Saturnus]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

It´s based on the on-going counting. There will be an official result tomorrow morning. But the final official result will only come in two weeks because a part of Dresden didn´t vote yet.

My bet is on a grand coalition. Merkel may not like it but I don´t think Westerwelle will accept to make a coalition with green in any case. Merkel may want to be Chancellor but the Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag and she doesn´t have enough members. Schröder´s faction has even less, but it is possible that members of the ultra-left will vote for him to prevent Merkel, so he has the better claim. Merkel will probably accept to be VC and some job as super-minister.