Merkel and Shroeder

[ICantSpellDawg]

Unless you live in Dresden, then it´s 2nd of october.

I´m surprised, already three threads over the German election.
Although it might be a good sign to have a woman as chancellor and a homosexual as vice-chancellor, I´d prefer Schröder. He´s the lesser evil. A lot of things I don´t like about his government but Merkel has only pseudo-solutions, plus she will need at least a legislative period to get a grip on the situation. Actually governing is always different than making plans in opposition. If Schröder is confirmed, he has a free hand to do whatever reforms he needs to do.

i am totally disconnected, but how would a majority of CDU supporters support guido westerwelle as VC? Some say that they hardly have a chance of forming a govt with the liberals. an alternative would be a grand coalition, but this would be deadlock. any other viable alternatives?

[_Martyr_]

Red Red Green is possible but very unlikely. At this stage its really hard to see where this is going.

[A.Saturnus]

Tentative result: all lose

Red/green is voted off.
Merkel has most votes, but not enough to form a government with the FDP.
FDP has won many new votes but it´s still not enough. And they don´t want a stop-light, so it´s opposition again.
Lafontaine is in the parliament but got below 10%.

Since Westerwelle and Lafontaine both don´t want to make a coalition with SPD, grand coalition is the only option. And who will be chancellor?

Total chaos - I´m not disappointed!

[Sjakihata]

Can someone explain to me who is going to be chancelor of germany?

to me it seems, that Merkels party got most votes (35,2) and schroeder got (33,7). however, the Merkel block has a total of ca 45% and Schröder has 50,7.

does this mean that schröder continues in his office?

[ICantSpellDawg]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

[Sjakihata]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

yes, it's based on exit polls, which are quite accurate.

i guess the party leaders respectively will have to conclude negotiations before a final result can be presented. it would be easier if a german patron could explain fully, though.

[Leodegar]

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

[A.Saturnus]

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

It´s based on the on-going counting. There will be an official result tomorrow morning. But the final official result will only come in two weeks because a part of Dresden didn´t vote yet.

My bet is on a grand coalition. Merkel may not like it but I don´t think Westerwelle will accept to make a coalition with green in any case. Merkel may want to be Chancellor but the Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag and she doesn´t have enough members. Schröder´s faction has even less, but it is possible that members of the ultra-left will vote for him to prevent Merkel, so he has the better claim. Merkel will probably accept to be VC and some job as super-minister.