Merkel and Shroeder

**Sjakihata** · 09-18-2005, 19:43

Can someone explain to me who is going to be chancelor of germany?

to me it seems, that Merkels party got most votes (35,2) and schroeder got (33,7). however, the Merkel block has a total of ca 45% and Schröder has 50,7.

does this mean that schröder continues in his office?

**ICantSpellDawg** · 09-18-2005, 20:17

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

**Sjakihata** · 09-18-2005, 20:22

Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

yes, it's based on exit polls, which are quite accurate.

i guess the party leaders respectively will have to conclude negotiations before a final result can be presented. it would be easier if a german patron could explain fully, though.

**Leodegar** · 09-18-2005, 20:48

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

**Xiahou** · 09-18-2005, 21:00

If no majority coalition can be formed, doesn't the president have the authority to name the party with a plurality as in charge?

**Leodegar** · 09-18-2005, 21:05

Originally Posted by Xiahou

If no majority coalition can be formed, doesn't the president have the authority to name the party with a plurality as in charge?

No. The president has only representive duties and no real power at all. A tribute to the Weimar Republic, when the Reichspresident used his power to establish Hitler as Chancellor...

**ICantSpellDawg** · 09-18-2005, 21:00

Originally Posted by Leodegar

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

my bet is on the jamaica coalition. the greens have the opportunity to regulate a more pro-business coalition

at the same time, the traffic light would be practical - and it may be best for the CDU in the longer run. if they are in a grand coalition with the SPD you can guarantee that the SPD will sabotage any reform that would make the CDU look good at the expense of social welfare programs.

next election if the traffic doesnt get enough done, the SPD will lose many, many votes and the CDU can claim that they had nothing to do with the squandered 4 years

**Leodegar** · 09-18-2005, 21:16

Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

at the same time, the traffic light would be practical - and it may be best for the CDU in the longer run. if they are in a grand coalition with the SPD you can guarantee that the SPD will sabotage any reform that would make the CDU look good at the expense of social welfare programs.

next election if the traffic doesnt get enough done, the SPD will lose many, many votes and the CDU can claim that they had nothing to do with the squandered 4 years

I agree on your opinion about that beeing best for CDU in the long run. However, there are some difficulties within the CDU. Merkel has strong opposition in her own party, so at least she can't plan long term. For her it's a now or never situation. If she can't get chancellor now, she won't get a second chance.
This situation, of course makes it intresting for some second row politicians in the CDU to work against a Jamaica or Big Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor, hoping to be the next CDU candidate for Chancellor in 4 years. So additional to all confusions caused by the election result, there are also intrigues within the parties ;)

**A.Saturnus** · 09-18-2005, 21:29

Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

i don't fully understand this

this is all from exit polls?
when is the official verdict?
are exit polls what they call official in germany?

what am i missing?

It´s based on the on-going counting. There will be an official result tomorrow morning. But the final official result will only come in two weeks because a part of Dresden didn´t vote yet.

My bet is on a grand coalition. Merkel may not like it but I don´t think Westerwelle will accept to make a coalition with green in any case. Merkel may want to be Chancellor but the Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag and she doesn´t have enough members. Schröder´s faction has even less, but it is possible that members of the ultra-left will vote for him to prevent Merkel, so he has the better claim. Merkel will probably accept to be VC and some job as super-minister.