Merkel and Shroeder

[ICantSpellDawg]

at the moment:

spd: 34.2%
green: 8.1%

cdu: 35.3%
FDP: 10.0%

Left: 8.5%

Schröder's block: spd+green= 42.3% , not enough!
Merkel's block: CDU+FDP=45.3%, not enough

All parties refuse to make coallitions with the Left. But they of course are much closer to Schröder, so he might use them as kind of threat, if bargaining doesn't lead to any conclusion. So, there are the following three possibilities:

1. Big coalition: SPD+CDU
problem, both Merkel and Schröder want to accept only, if they themselves get Chancellor. I think very unlikely, only if really nothing else works as it would be end of the career of either Merkel or Schröder.

2. Traffic ligths coallition: SPD+Green+FDP
Chancellor Schröder. Problem, FDP refuses that vehemently. But it is hard to say, if it is just tactical to get most out of bargaining, or really kind of a fundamental statement.

3. Jamaica coallition: CDU+FDP+Green (black, yellow, green ;))
Chancellor Merkel. Problem, the Greens are refusing that. Fischer, head of the Greens, and Schröder are also personal friends. But you never know how much that counts in politics...

So my firts guess, would be a traffic light coallition. If the FDP won't accept, I think we get the Jamaica coallition... But anyhow, it will take some days until we know, who is going to govern us...

my bet is on the jamaica coalition. the greens have the opportunity to regulate a more pro-business coalition

at the same time, the traffic light would be practical - and it may be best for the CDU in the longer run. if they are in a grand coalition with the SPD you can guarantee that the SPD will sabotage any reform that would make the CDU look good at the expense of social welfare programs.

next election if the traffic doesnt get enough done, the SPD will lose many, many votes and the CDU can claim that they had nothing to do with the squandered 4 years