Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
We've got a nasty hurricane brewing with Houston presently in its long range sights. Uncertainty has led to the cancellation of the early returns to New Orleans.
If this one moves across bashing Houston like Katrina did Louisiana and Mississippi, this could be some sort of new worst case scenario in several regards--including energy.
The water is hotter than normal according to most reports, and according to NOAA, that could make for another unusually strong storm.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
I can't believe Nagin was actually calling for the return of people to a city with almost no utilities and services, that's still almost half flooded with sewage, has breached and weakened levies and during the middle of hurricane season.
It's ironic that the man who was shouting the loudest for the federal government to come save the city was all to recently griping that they should butt out and let him repopulate the city....
Last edited by Xiahou; 09-19-2005 at 22:57.
"Don't believe everything you read online."
-Abraham Lincoln
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
I didn't want to start another thread, so I'll post this in the current semi-Katrina related thread:
The FDA: it doesn't just waste US tax dollars anymore! They insist on burning millions of dollars worth of British food donations. Ah, useless federal agencies;
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/tm_obje...name_page.html
Sorry Britain.
Crazed Rabbit
Ja Mata, Tosa.
The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail; its roof may shake; the wind may blow through it; the storm may enter; the rain may enter; but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement! - William Pitt the Elder
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Nagin is the stupidest man I've seen in the news for ages.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Maybe we should impose sanctions on him.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Well, Nagin was told that nobody was going to help him with forced evacaution (state and federal) so WTF was he supposed to do? Wait for nothing? If people were going to be there anyway, why not allow more in and start clean up, work etc? Not that it was going to be pretty being there. It isn't like the Feds have done a hell of a lot to help. Frankly, it shows a lot more intelligence, effort, and initiative than most others in the effort have shown. What of course he couldn't count on was another hurricane...or that the Corps was going to reverse course and say a 6" rain might be enough to do in their patchwork. His job is not to kiss up to Dubya or the governor, but to get New Orleans functioning ASAP. What do his constituents want? They want to get back in.
As it is, Galveston is already requesting voluntary evacuation and is planning busing starting on Wed. The fear of God is in officials now. Nobody expects any help anymore.
But that wasn't the real point of the thread. We face the chance of having two major hurricanes deliver a 1-2 punch. Take out New Orleans area, then take out Houston area. If you look at oil and gas production/distribution, and refining etc., not to mention rig locations this combo is about as bad as it gets energy wise. Then the idea of having another major displacement and general damage before the country could even catch its breath from the last one.
Anyway, I've been checking out my materials for boarding up this evening. I'm out of the Cat 5 flood/surge zone, so wind is my major worry.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/12684423.htmDangers abound, said Coast Guard Vice Adm. Thad Allen. The city still lacks drinkable tap water and working telephones, and bacteria-tainted floodwaters pose a serious health hazard. The levees are too weak to protect against another storm. An evacuation plan to clear the crippled city in the event of another disaster is not complete.
If all they want is to go back in right away, they're not making a much more intelligent decision than those who decided to 'tough it out.' (No, I'm not talking about those destitute folks who Nagin basically drowned when he high tailed it before he had time to pass out bus keys.)
I don't think there's anything intelligent about encouraging people to return to an area infested with bacteria, no 911 system, barely any running water and oh yeah, another frigging hurricanes in the area. How in the blue f did he not know the levees can be compromised by more rain until today? It's not like Rita appeared at 6 am today.
I think you use a potent double standard when evaluating Nero Nagin.
Godspeed, Red.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Provided that appropriate measures are taken to stop the public health debacle that might result, returning might be understandable.
Wouldn't be fun, I agree. Still, damage from Katrina to that infrastructure was surprisingly light. I would have thought we'd lose more rigs and have greater problems with pumping/refining than we did.
Seamus
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
It was about what I expected, actually. The disruption, etc. has caused some changes in gasoline consumption (at least initially) that helped offset the loss of refining--plus Labor Day is the end of the peak driving season, so seasonally things usually get easier on the demand side. It's been a about a week since I heard a report on the refineries but one big one (Pascagoula, Mississippi) is out of commission for months. Several others were still down and trying to figure out how they would be coming back up--simply getting employees and contractors onsite and housing them somewhere was a big issue, besides dealing with damage. They were planning to restart this past week at some capacity if memory serves.
The crude shortage was compensated for by the SPR, which is what it is there for, to offset short term disruptions. It didn't surprise me that oil prices have fallen quite a bit. This is as a result of reduced U.S. demand, and opening the SPR to make sure refineries had feedstock.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
No, but I do recognize the difference between someone who was doing something and got most of his job done, versus those that didn't get any of their jobs done during a crisis.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
So if Bush advised a bunch of people to go back into a cess pool with no EMS system or running water and every other figure from the Mayor to FEMA to the Coastgaurd advised against it, would you still consider it to be showing 'intelligence, effort, and initiative'?
Please.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
I really hope that this Rita goes away. People in New Orleans really need a break.
Nature hasn't been very forgiving the last years. Wonder what we have to expect for the future.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
If Bush had taken control, and was more or less making sure things got done, and wanted to allow people into cleared sections. Yep, I would consider it reasonable. But Bush passed on taking control of the situation. Blanco did as well. Those two squabbled about BS while things deteriorated.
This is a leadership vacuum issue. Why is Nagin the one showing leadership? Because nobody else has any guts or initiative to get the job done. He wanted to get everyone out, he was refused help/authorization to do so. He went down another avenue, so he gets attacked for this.
Doesn't make him perfect, but I'll take they guy who is trying over the a-holes consulting their lawyers while they do nothing any day of the week.
Whether or not the buses had run, we still would have been looking at the same problems after the storm, the numbers would have been maybe half, but the problem would have been the same. The Federal (and State) response might have been even more inept because those needing help might not have gotten as much press as early on or perhaps Nagin would have waited another day before going off... The bigger problem for the future is not pre-disaster evacuation (which folks will now be working on more diligently at the local level), it is post disaster evacuation...you know, the kind of thing you might get after an earth quake or terrorist attack.
I do commend him for going off like that. It was what was needed, and it worked. Had Bush or Blanco taken that sort of initiative, I would be applauding it as well. I've had a similar experience before, where I had to come unglued on a lying superior publicly to get a big project moving. I was expecting my head to roll, but he was dressed down instead. We got the required resources the next day.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
It's unlikely to go away. Current strike zone projection is farther west, Houston. It depends mostly on what happens to the high that is parked over this section of the country at the moment. There are not many "good" places for a big storm to go once it gets into this part of the Gulf. It would be best if it just faded away, doesn't seem likely though.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Projections are that it will hit Category 4. They are expecting Category 3 in the morning as it is strengthening in the *evening* so far (not a good sign.) Cat 4 is projected as early as tomorrow night. Storm track...just about anywhere along the Texas coast, with Matagorda to Galveston being the most likely. They should have it nailed down decently by tomorrow afternoon if recent storms are any indication of their projection abilities (much better than they used to be.) The other thing is, this storm is getting very large on some of the most recent maps (reminds me of Katrina). Houston is likely to be on the "dirty side" of the storm, so even a miss could be quite nasty.
The hardware stores in Houston were totally unprepared for this and were out of many things for boarding up by 7AM this morning. I was able to get what I needed (a bit of improvisation) and have boarded up the back half of the house. Took a damn site longer than it should have because of the necessity for improvisation, but it is sturdier as a result. Schools are closed and evac will kickin into high gear starting tomorrow.
EDIT: She hit Category 3 a few minutes after I posted this...
Last edited by Red Harvest; 09-21-2005 at 07:17. Reason: News
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Already Category 4 this morning. Went from Category 2 to Category 4 over night. Hit that same patch of hot water that Katrina strengthened from. (So while people continue to discuss any impact of global warming, the hotter than normal water does effect the models...and NOAA's predictions of what it expects.) To quote Yogi Berra, "This is like deja vu all over again."
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
have you seen this guy?
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Figure I'll drop the Nagin stuff, just agree to disagree, Red.
What's it like in Galveston, right now? Does it look like people are complying with the voluntary evacuation in a smoother way than we saw a few weeks ago, or at least with a greater sense of urgency? More importantly, when are you leaving?
Edit: Just read it's mandatory evac now. Guess I could've turned on the news this morning.
Last edited by Proletariat; 09-21-2005 at 14:25.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Yeah, yeah. I knew that was coming.have you seen this guy?
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
I've not heard that much on Galveston's efforts other than the preparation and the mandatory evacuation (and of course the routes they are supposed to take.) They were supposed to start evacuations of nursing homes and the like this AM, with buses for people at 6 PM.
While many people on this side of Houston are concerned, quite a few seem to be planning on riding it out. People aren't boarding up for the most part (I heard only 1 or 2 doing so while I was working on it.) My next door neighbor didn't think we would get much, he was figuring Category 3 "tops." Could be a mad rush for the exits if this puppy turns a little.
I'm planning to pack the kids and wife out tonight in the very early AM when I think traffic will be easiest (and when I've got things set so I don't need two sets of hands.) If I go, it will be 24 hours later--when the track is fairly settled. If it looks like a fairly wide miss I'll stay. If it looks like we are going to get hit hard I'll go. I have some concern about leaving early with a boarded up house if the neighbors aren't doing the same...it's like putting up a sign that says, "Break in here!" That's why I'm holding off on the front windows and leaving myself. I've got 4 wheel drive and high ground clearance, and am not bashful about driving off road to get around traffic jams (very frequently comes in handy in Houston anyway, more so than out in the sticks.)
I'm debating pulling down a portable shed today...I don't think it will take hurricane force winds and I don't want to lose it.
I hope we are all just wasting our time on this storm, but I've had a bad feeling about this one from when I first glimpsed it. My wife calls it "fey" when I get this itch, I call it guessing well with limited data...and being a wee bit paranoid.
Rome Total War, it's not a game, it's a do-it-yourself project.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Re: Rita
Now they're wondering if it will be a cat 5. Portions of the Gulf through which it is likely to pass have water and air temperatures that are exactly the same. Yeesh.
Re: George Dubya Bush
Overall, I'm not unhappy with him as a President -- despite the lackluster government performance during and after Katrina -- but you simply have to admit that he mangles his own language like few leaders ever have. Almost awe-inspiring at times. He is the antithesis of a Kennedy-esque glib tongue.
Seamus
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Yup, it is now a Cat5 with 165mph winds.
link
"Don't believe everything you read online."
-Abraham Lincoln
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
How can this happen?! I mean this isnt a co-incidence. Someone MUST have developed a weather-control-device.
Really, I was so sad when I heard it turned into a cat 4, now you're saying it's cat 5?! I hope you are prepared for this, god bless.
Common Unreflected Drinking Only Smartens
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
Red Harvest and others who are caught up in this, I hope you all stay out of harm's way if that Airbus happens to park outside your doors. You will report back to us alive, you hear?
The bloody trouble is we are only alive when we’re half dead trying to get a paragraph right. - Paul Scott
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
This one just might be a bad one - in the news here at Dallas they are making weather predictions that it will remain a Cat 1, until it reaches here, ie the Dallas Area which is a good 250 miles from Houston.
O well, seems like 'some' people decide to ruin a perfectly valid threat. Nice going guys... doc bean
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
repeat along with me and dubya...."there´s no such thing as global warming..lalalalalalalala"
"If given the choice to be the shepherd or the sheep... be the wolf"
-Josh Homme
"That's the difference between me and the rest of the world! Happiness isn't good enough for me! I demand euphoria!"
- Calvin
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
its a catagory 5 now beaumont to galveston are gone its supposed to hit friday or saturday lets hope its not as bad as Katrina on saturday we are supposed to get 60 mph winds were 175 miles inland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! god bless all
There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford
My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.
I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
It's those damn crazy Iranians!
Good luck to everyone caught up in the path of this storm, remember your, and your families, lives are more important then your 60" TV!
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Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
The Girls and Boys at NOAA tell us the ocean warming and tropical winds that most influence hurricanes happen in 25 year batches, unfortunately, the latest "heavy" zone started around 1995.
I hope that the forecasters are correct and that it weakens as it approaches land. A Cat-4 is bad enough, but a Cat-5 that stayed a full 5 until over land doesn't really bear thinking about. Those storms pack more energy than all of the nukes ever detonated -- they are truly awful.
Seems as if Red has his plans in order, and it sounds like his kids are packing up now. Still a little too early to know if it'll boresight Houston, Galveston or Corpus. Hope our other Texicans are geared up and ready.
Seamus
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: Hurricane Rita forming...return to New Orleans postponed
TEXANS but yes god-speed to everyone Im hearing Rita is 3rd wrost ever It aint going to be pretty
I hope that the forecasters are correct and that it weakens as it approaches land. A Cat-4 is bad enough, but a Cat-5 that stayed a full 5 until over land doesn't really bear thinking about. Those storms pack more energy than all of the nukes ever detonated -- they are truly awful.
Seems as if Red has his plans in order, and it sounds like his kids are packing up now. Still a little too early to know if it'll boresight Houston, Galveston or Corpus. Hope our other Texicans are geared up and ready.
Seamus
There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford
My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.
I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.
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