
Originally Posted by
Aurelian
Incidentally, one of the proposed reasons for the decline in violent crime since the 1990s was the legalization of abortion back in the early 70's. The argument goes that crime rates start declining just at the time that the generation culled by legalized abortion got to the age when they would be commiting crimes.
You're talking about economist Steven Levitt's theory. Obviously I can't link to it directly, since it's copyrighted and in a published book and all of that, but here's a little bit of a summation:
In January 1973, the Supreme Court made abortion legal throughout the United States, where previously it had been available in only five states. In 1974, roughly 750,000 women had abortions in America; by 1980, the number was 1.6m (one abortion for every 2.3 live births). “What sort of woman was most likely to take advantage of Roe v Wade?” the book asks. “Very often she was unmarried or in her teens or poor, and sometimes all three...In other words, the very factors that drove millions of American women to have an abortion also seemed to predict that their children, had they been born, would have led unhappy and possibly criminal lives...In the early 1990s, just as the first cohort of children born after Roe v Wade was hitting its late teen years—the years during which young men enter their criminal prime—the rate of crime began to fall.”
The theory is the easy part, once you dare to articulate it. Testing it is quite another matter. But the book moves methodically and persuasively through the statistical evidence. It turns out, for instance, that crime started falling earlier in the states that legalised abortion before Roe v Wade; that the states with the highest abortion rates saw the biggest drops in crime (even controlling for other factors); that there was no link between abortion rates and crime before the late 1980s (when unborn criminals, as it were, first began to affect the figures); and that a similar association of crime and abortion has been found in other countries.
I've read the book. Note that Levitt controlled for all of the other factors put forward -- policing strategies, gun ownership, prison population, etc. None were predictive of the crime drop except abortion. Pretty weird stuff.
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