MTW: Subterfuge Guide

[Dutch_guy]

Here is a little bit of information about the percentage chances that an assassin will strike his target. I've tested my Valor 0-2 assassins against a variety of targets. Based on the numbers returned, I've determined that there is this scale that the game uses to determine the chance that an assassination will succeed. To note, I haven't received the 95% in this table but based on my attempts there was a space between 93% and 97% so it seemed to make the most sense.

0% - 7% - 10% - 14% - 17% - 24% - 34% - 50% - 66% - 76% - 83% - 86% - 90% - 93% - 95% - 97%.


Different targets have different places at which they start on the table. Here is a list of the base points (assume all targets have Valor/Command of 0). Generals use their Command stat, while Agents use the Valor stat. The below chart assumes that you're using a 0 Valor assassin. To determine what percentage chance a particular combo has, move the point on the above scale up one position (to the right) for each point of Valor for the Assassin. Then move the point down one position (to the left) for each point of Valor that the target has.

For instance, a 0 Valor assassin going after a V0 Princess has a 50% chance. A V3 assassin on the other hand has an 83% chance. If a V1 Assassin went after a V3 Princess on the other hand, the assassin would have a 24% chance.

As well, a V6 assassin has an 83% chance of assassinating a Rank 0 Faction leader. The list of targets in order of difficulty.

17% - Faction Leader
34% - Faction Heir/Normal General
50% - Princess
66% - Assassin/Spy*
66% - Cardinal/O.Bishop/Ulama
66% - Inquisitor/Grand Inquisitor
76% - C.Bishop/Priest/Mullah
83% - Emisary

* Only applicable if you're going after your own, but likewise also good to know the chances of a particular assassin catching spies and assassins on their own. I presume it uses these numbers behind the scenes for stealth vs stealth.


Inquisitors

I haven't tested inquisitors in the game yet but it does appear that the percentage chance that an inquisitor puts a general on trial for is based on the Zeal in the province. A higher Zeal increases the chance. For instance I tried a V0 Inquisitor trying 2 V3 generals. One was in a province with 56% Zeal, while the other was in a province with 98% Zeal. The general in the 58% Zeal province had a percent chance of 14% while the other had a 24% chance. I will have to run some tests. If anyone would like to assist with this, write down the following information for each combo you attempt. All you need to do is drag and drop an inquisitor on an individual but you needn't go through with the Inquisition. The more results I can get, the better it can be developed into a simple formula. For instance, if I can get 10 sets of results from just 10 people, that will give 100 sets of values to start working out the math.

- Inquisitor Valor
- Province Zeal
- Target Command Rank and Piety score (possibly the later).
- Percentage Chance received.

That was very interresting , never knew a scale like that existed , or did you just figure that out by yourself.?

anyway, nice job !

[sbroadbent]

That was very interresting , never knew a scale like that existed , or did you just figure that out by yourself.?

anyway, nice job !

Essentially I took my assassins, noted their valor levels and then dropped them on a variety of targets and noted the target's valor level and the percentage chance of success. From there I filled them into a chart and eventually I noticed a pattern. After I worked out the pattern I was able to easily guess the percentages of the missing entries.

I had a chart like below for each of the agent and general types. As I tested each valor/command combination, I put it in it's appropriate position. This might be a sample of the chart I had for assassins with the empty blanks as values I didn't know (since I hadn't come across that combination), but it was very easy to figure out. After comparing to the other charts it was clear this scale was hardcoded into the game (whether you can change the numbers I don't yet know).

......V0......V1......V2......V3......V4
V0...66...............34......24......17
V1.....................50................
V2...83......76......66...............34

There are a few other things that have % chance that are told to the player. Inquisitors tell you how likely to burn a target (based on province Zeal). When you use spies during a siege, they can be used to "open the doors" allowing you to end the siege immediately and with fewer casualties. This may prove tricky to calculate because you'd have to first get into a siege situation and then there are a variety of variables that are unknown. For instance, a spy had I believe a 50% chance against a garrison with an average general (and that was a 3 or 4 star Spy). Even my 6 Star Spy had only a 7% chance to open the gates of a garrison that had the Faction Leader in it. It may also be based on number of troops in the garrison as well. This is something that will either take a lot of trial and error, or searching through the code or other files (or just asking someone working at CA if they have the numbers )

[Ludens]

Excellent idea, sbroadbent. I tried to compile an agent guide myself some time ago, but the idea stalled due to lack of interest (and I am afraid that not everything in it is accuracte). You can find the guide somewhere in this thread: Agents. You can also find information about agents in the Numerology thread at the .Com.

Good job, please keep it up!

[sbroadbent]

Just thought I'd bump this thread as this has some very useful information that might be useful for new players (particularly with the release of the Total War: Eras Collection set there's bound to be some new players).

I had intended to write a more polished version of this guide, but at the time I had moved onto other things and stopped playing mtw. As I recall I was probably also in the middle of selling my house, and I moved back to the parents around that time.

In the interim I think that maybe this thread should get moved to the mtw guides forum, so it doesn't disappear into the depths of the forum again.

[Lurker on the Threshold]

In one game, as the English, I attempted to assasinate my own heir as he was so horribly bad while his younger brother showed great promise. The assasination failed and on the next turn I had a civil war break out. I assume this was the result of the king attempting a little fratricide. Now I just send my heir and his motley band of knights on a one way mission to some island to fight and be captured or killed. No jedi knights yet.

[Martok]

In one game, as the English, I attempted to assasinate my own heir as he was so horribly bad while his younger brother showed great promise. The assasination failed and on the next turn I had a civil war break out. I assume this was the result of the king attempting a little fratricide.

Yep, a civil war can occur if you try (and fail) to assassinate one of your sons/brothers. That's not always a bad thing, however....

Now I just send my heir and his motley band of knights on a one way mission to some island to fight and be captured or killed. No jedi knights yet.

Yeah, that usually is the best way to dispose of unwanted heirs. Occasionally, though, suicide missions can backfire--but in a good way!

Every once in a while, I'll dispatch a crappy prince on a "glorious quest" who refuses to die. I send him on repeated suicide missions, but he keeps managing to somehow survive them. Before you know it, the prince I was trying to kill off suddenly has 5 command stars and 8 dread, along with the "Expert Attacker" trait. Such a phenomenon is not a frequent occurrence, but it does happen.

[sbroadbent]

Slightly later than planned, I now have a pre-release version of the Subterfuge guide I call Medieval: Total Subterfuge. It's in pdf format, and only 83KB in size.

This guide does not yet include the religious characters as I'm still working on them, but does include assassins, spies, emissaries and princesses.

I would appreciate any feedback on the layout, organization or content of the guide. If you have anything that can be added, please feel free to let me know.

[Geezer57]

In one game, as the English, I attempted to assasinate my own heir as he was so horribly bad while his younger brother showed great promise. The assasination failed and on the next turn I had a civil war break out. I assume this was the result of the king attempting a little fratricide. Now I just send my heir and his motley band of knights on a one way mission to some island to fight and be captured or killed. No jedi knights yet.

When you set-up one of these "one-way" missions to an island for unwanted heir, always move your ships after he arrives to break the sea connection back to your territory. I've had some of these cheeky Royals with the gall to rout off the battle map (so avoiding death or capture), then show back up in my territory at the start of the next year.