Yeah, I just thought of the groups that fight for an independant Chechnya. There almost always factions fighting for the state the other are fighting against.

And the bandits... Well I thought everybody knew it was a hotspot of crime, so I din't figure them in. But agreed they do make it rather unpredictable.

My fear is that the Russian crackdowns might hurt the secular groups more than the AQ wannabes. Which in turn will destabilize the region a whole lot more.