I think option 1 is the best. We need to keep our resources together and need to move to an area which is friendly. Also the Midlands means that we can strike in any direction.
Option 2 is too cautious. The Welsh Marches is too far away from the centre of power and, as the Welsh are subdued, we need not fear trouble on that count.
The worse part of option 3 is the King's ride to London - Stephen must be visible as Robert's spread of news of his death is the main agent of insurection - also he will be highly susceptable to capture or death.
The only drawback of 1 is a possible battle - but, hey, we can handle that!!