I've been toying with XL mod lately, while waiting for the early period in the newest medmod to come out, and here's what's been happening.
The English are the new bad boy in town, even if they get kicked from the mainland. Having the Wessex-Flanders landbridge offers them some safety and time to build up before massively invading most of Europe.
The Eggies have been strong and captured from Egypt to Constantinople every single game I've ever played on XL.
The Danes build MASSIVE fleets and invade the mediteranean, then sit there.
The Spanish usually win control of Spain, even if they get eliminated. In my last game the Almohads killed them off, then they reappeared and took all the way to the Egyptian border.
The Genoese or Venetians do well, usually not both in the same campaign though. Then the HRE eats them.
The HRE doesn't grow super-quick, but they usually hold on to what they've got and take out the Genoese and Sicilians.
Unmodded, I tend to agree with the above posts, usually the Spanish in the bottom left, the Eggies in the bottom right (very occasionally it'll be the turks), the French in the top left, all converging on the hodge podge of semi-weak factions in the middle.
Edit: As a side not, I realized I just did the factions that ALWAYS do something instead of the other way around. Doh.
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