Alternate History:The Thirty Years War

[Watchman]

Historically, Poland stayed the heck away from the war in Germany. They didn't really have any reason to get involved anyway, if only because military adventurism wasn't a big hit amongst the ruling class (who were doing pretty well as was, and busy dividing Ukraine) and the drawn-out mess didn't exactly offer very good expense-profit projections. And I don't think there was any love lost between the Habsburgs and the Polish Vasas either; the Poles had a long history of seeing off German expansionism...

As far as religious divides go, keep in mind that the patently Catholic French monarchs were only too happy to help Protestants, or for that matter anyone else, against their old (and also patently Catholic) Habsburg arch-fiends... although they spent most of the war providing financial support; when they finally joined in openly they had some catching-up to do in military matters (not having fought a major war in quite a while, and hence a tad behind the times), but were soon able to pretty much knock Spain out of the equation and cause considerable problems to Imperial regions in Western parts of Germany.

Invading the Netherlands would have been more than little pointless. The Spanish had been warring there for decades already, to rather little avail - the TYW was one of those periods when fortifications *really* counted, and tended to utterly frusrate many an ambitious campaign. Sending German troops there would merely have diverted resources from fighting the Emperor's domestic foes and bogged them down in the morass. Heck, despite having to maintain pressure on the Dutch front the Spanish Habsburgs were nonetheless perfectly capable of sending substantial troops and other resources to the aid of their German kinsmen anyway...

The Emperor could most likely have walked all over Denmark if he wanted to - indeed, I seem to recall there having been a brief skirmish between the Danes and the Imperials, which persuaded the former to remain uninvolved - but would then run into the exact same problem as the Swedes did late in the war when war broke out between them and the Danes. The hardened Swedish main field army in Germany, quick-marched to the Baltic, brushed aside all resistance with contemptuous ease... until they arrived at the shore. The thing is, the Danish "heartlands" were on the islands; and they were *the* naval superpower in the Baltic. Having a land army zillion times as strong as theirs didn't amount to zilch if you couldn't ship all those buggers over the straits in the face of the Danish navy...

In a sense the "teams" were rather set from the start of the war, and there was likely very little the Holy Roman Emperor could do to alter them. He was pretty much quaranteed the aid of his Habsburg kin in other realms, notably Spain and Austria, so much as their own issues (like the Spanish war in the Netherlands) allowed them to spare. The French Bourbons were pretty much quaranteed to happily support just about any enemy of the rival dynasty. The Swedish entry into the war, while not exactly quaranteed, was highly likely given the ambitions of its leaders and its rising stars; that that entry, should it happen, would be to the detriment of the Habsburgs, *was* a given, and the interests of the two dynasties were too diametrically opposed for there to be much possibility of "talking it out". The Danish were opportunists; mostly they were content to tax the trade passing through the straits, but weren't adverse to some military adventurism if they figured they could get away with it - both the Imperials and the Swedes had to divert armies to see off these ambitions on occasion. The Poles didn't really even care; I understand the reigning king would have been quite keen on meddling in the German war, but was bluntly overruled by the nobility who could see no point in such risky and expensive projects. The Dutch, well, they had their hands full holding off the Spanish, but other than that they made an absolute killing selling supplies to the foes of the Habsburgs... The English seem to have maintained a total hands-off approach to the Continental troubles.

And the political map of the Holy Roman Empire itself was an utter mess even at the best of times, with endless petty freetowns, baronies, sprawling fiefdoms, Papal holdings and God only knows what else with their monumental tangle of privileges, agreements, dues and so on making it hard to keep track of and steer in some common direction even when half of it wasn't in direct armed rebellion against the Emperor... Catholic lordlings tended to side with the Emperor, and Protestant ones usually sided with each other against him, but that wasn't even close to a given (many were only too happy to sit in the sidelines and try to pick the winning side) and the sheer naked political opportunism involved would have made Macchiavelli lift a quizzical eyebrow.

[cegorach]

With full knowledge of Polish internal and external situation I would choose option 3, but with some modifications:

1. Mutual help, but rather in the form of money for Poland - imperial tropps usually caused more problems than they solved and their forces marching through Poland would cause some anti-Hapsburg feelings, especially if you consider the appaling lack of discipline at that time.
In return some form of Polish 'mercenary legion' would be a good option - in similar way to 1680s when before the official Polish army arrived Lubomirski's mercenary troops were already engaged.

2. Poland is already at war vs. Sweden and there is a growing tension with Russia and the Ottomans. For this reason money would be good as soon as possible to prolong the conflict with Sweden.

3. Some diplomatic efforts in fending off French diplomacy trying to mediate and to encourage Swedes to invade Germany is required. Countering French efforts is required the most.

Of course if I can propose something like this.

Regards Cegorach

[Kraxis]

The Emperor could most likely have walked all over Denmark if he wanted to - indeed, I seem to recall there having been a brief skirmish between the Danes and the Imperials, which persuaded the former to remain uninvolved - but would then run into the exact same problem as the Swedes did late in the war when war broke out between them and the Danes. The hardened Swedish main field army in Germany, quick-marched to the Baltic, brushed aside all resistance with contemptuous ease... until they arrived at the shore. The thing is, the Danish "heartlands" were on the islands; and they were *the* naval superpower in the Baltic. Having a land army zillion times as strong as theirs didn't amount to zilch if you couldn't ship all those buggers over the straits in the face of the Danish navy...

Good analysis, similar to my own.
But you downplay the Batle of Lutter am Barenberg, it was a full battle and it was extremely close. It was indeed a Danish defeat, but it could as easily have gone the other way. Had that happened then who know what had happened... But it didn't and the Danish army was basically lost (mercenaries tend to not hang around after defeats).

[Lord Winter]

With your decision made you begin to speech: “I will go with the advice of my ally Maximillian of Bavaria, the Holy Roman Empire will seek an alliance with the ruler of Poland.”

Out the corner of your eye you see Maximillian smile. You study the reactions of the other electors. One in particular jumps out to you; the elector of Saxony looks frustrated; his lands are closest to the Danish boarder. Making a note to do something about him you listen to the rest of the electors argue out the vices and virtues of the alliance.

After a short debate the majority of the electors agree to carry out your plan. The meeting is dismissed upon the pretext that you will organize all the details. You now must decide the fine points of the alliance.

1. On how the negations will be handled.

A. Go your self, it would probably be the most efficient but it would leave you in a position where you could not be able to contact the Holy Roman Empire without some delay in the case of the pending crisis with the Protestants.

B. Send Maximillian, he is the head of the catholic league after-all and may carry more weight in the negations to join the league if you chose to go that way.

C. Send one of the other electors of the Holy Roman Empire, you may want Maximillian advise latter and you may not be able to spare yourself now.

2. On how to support Poland

A. Keep the alliance secret and only send money in the hope of prolonging the conflict with Sweden.
B. Incorporate them in to the catholic league; they would then be able to request soldiers and funds. You could maybe get more of the league to pay and not just the Holy Roman Empire.
C. Directly declare war against Sweden and send in soldiers in support. While you would probably need the soldiers latter, there is the hope that with the extra soldiers you could decisively defeat the Swedes in battle,


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Just a note historicly Denmark invades you in around 6 months so they have the majority of there forces ready and could very well invade if they saw a weakness or thought they could bribe someone to join there cause.

[IrishMike]

Sorry to join in this after the first round.

I would say that going in person would be most unwise with denmark still a considerable threat. Therefore it would be best to stay. I'd say option B with sending Maximillian would be best. It would give poland a sense of importance and perhaps help bolster them a bit.

Secondly I'd go option B in Incorporating them. If you go overboard it may cost you too much. If you don't help enough they feel disenfranchised and not be so helpful later on. So once again the middle route appears to be the best.

[Rodion Romanovich]

I don't know who to send, but going myself could be risky, for various reasons. But for 2, I suggest a new idea not mentioned (see at the bottom of post if you don't want to read all the following text).

Paying money in secret won't give us any credit for our helpfulness, and not score us a point in popularity with the Polish people. The Polish leaders could therefore, should they defeat the Swedish, use the money against us.

Incorporating the Polish into the catholic league strengthens the league militarily, but also unnerves the protestants, feeling their support being limited, and the majority of countries and people being against them in their ideological war. By incorporating them in the league, it could be possible to arrange for several to send aid to the Polish, and perhaps in some way get the pope to preach in favor of all true catholics to send at least something to aid the Polish in Poland. That would take a possible future conflict from the German lands, as well. But we don't want the pope to go too far and require all true catholics to send troops into Poland. We don't want troops there in case the Danish attack, or the by Dutch rallied rebels attack somewhere. Therefore, we must be careful in trying to convice others to join.

There are so many outside threats that one of them needs to be knocked out quickly. By strategical principle, the weakest should be dealt with first, to free up troops quickly for the other fronts/threats. Although the Swedish are probably one of the stronger, an offensive into Denmark is dangerous, for above mentioned reasons. The Dutch should be considered an enemy too. Because when I think about it, it's difficult to convince the catholic league nations to see a benefit in helping the empire against the Swedish if the Swedish seem too weak to be able to continue far further than Polish or German lands. If the conflict is carried out on German soil, it might even benefit some of them. So we can't trust our allies to the west. In fact, if we score popularity points in the right way, our most reliable ally could in fact even turn out to be Poland, despite earlier conflicts.

Directly declaring war on Sweden and trying some offensive move is dangerous, and may draw us sooner into a conflict which we would otherwise be able to avoid (unlikely) or at least postpone. But it's unlikely they will be done with the Polish quickly enough to send an offensive into German lands, and the sudden increase in strength of the opposition - and unity - would probably lower their morale a lot. The declaration should be made, but no military action immediately. We should start by aid in the form of money, or money in the form of a mercenary force.

An attack on the Dutch still seems reasonable IMO. As we didn't attack the Dutch earlier, we might have lost valuable time there. Having dealt with some of the Dutch would stop important trade that would have benefitted our enemies, and the Dutch also have little strength to oppose us offensively in counter-moves, should we need to withdraw most of our troops from the Dutch front (before having defeated the Dutch) and have to face the Swedish if their attack would come sooner than expected. Fortresses in the Netherlands are difficult to deal with, yes, but plundering can lure the enemy out of their fortresses. After all, the richess of the Dutch is the main problem, and some of their trading the problem that strenghtens our enemies. Although horrible and with severe consequences in popularity, I still support the idea of attacking the Dutch in a cruel manner with plundering and burning. The undisciplined soldiers won't be a problem in a war where plundering is one of the main ideas. We can then weaken a source of valuable things to our enemies, and make an example for protestants and rebel rallying attempts. But it all depends on how long it takes for the Swedish to deal with Poland and come to our lands. Ideally, we'd want to be ready with the Dutch before the Swedish come, but it isn't necessary. And I suspect money aid to Poland will delay the Swedish.

Hm, attacking the Swedish in Poland would threaten the Polish alliance, and leave the Dutch as a problem not yet dealt with, and the give Danish a more open northern front. Schorched earth would be a good policy against the Swedish in Poland, as they're far from home, but schorching the Polish earth isn't even to consider for popularity and practical reasons.

So I suggest attacking the Dutch to make an example (they're after all trying to rally Germans to aid their rebellion), score points with the pope (if we officially declare it a war against their protestantism), hurt a source of weapons, morale and rebelliousness and other things that could end up in the hands of our other enemies, and free up Spanish troops, while only sending money to the Polish, but sending that money openly (so we can take credit for it, to show what a defender of catholic faith we are - the Dutch war is a good explanation on why we can't send troops to Poland right away), and at the same time declaring war on Sweden, to show that we aren't the least scared of them (even though that might be a lie). Their declaration of war will come sooner or later anyway, and they're mostly tied up in Poland at the moment. If we do it first, we show that we have no respect for their armies, and it'll make them nervous in Poland, realizing the Polish aren't their only immediate opponent. If possible, at the same time make Poland a part of the catholic league. This alternative would be a good choice in both improving the morale situation and the military strategical position. We need the Spanish troops freed up so they can continue to be a threat for the French and British, and possibly even send aid to us later. We need some sort of breakthrough against the Dutch before the Swedish have done too much harm on the Polish, but such a breakthrough can be achieved through shocking amounts of plundering and other demoralizing actions in the early stages (ideally we need some really scary and unusual weapons, how about some nasty type of artillery?). At least a few forts will fall that way. We should of course offer nice ceasefire terms with them so they are conviced to surrender - and keep that promise should they surrender, in order to make the Polish and other allies trust our honor as keepers of promises. Then we should intercept the Swedish shortly before they reach German soil (we officially declare this action, when carried out, as in increase in our helpfulness towards our ally Poland, and an act in defense of the catholic faith). No need to intercept too early. If we fail a breakthrough in the Netherlands, we just leave the Spanish to continue. The Spanish can hold out defensively without us, especially if you offensive inflicted enough defeats on the Dutch to weaken them. When we're done with the Swedish we can continue with the Dutch if needed. The Danish threat is smaller here, as we have our troops closer to Denmark if going for the Dutch.

So here's my choices:
- send someone, but not myself, to discuss terms with the Polish. i.e. B or C. Edit: ColdKnight is right, B it is.
- declare war on the Dutch, make the Polish part of catholic league, send money (openly) to them, and declare war on Sweden (only nominally, and carry out no military actions against them). (i.e. I choose a new option D)

[Ironside]

1.B and 2.A

I don't think the Poles would be exactly overjoyed by getting incorperated. Same with giving away Imperial troops and that will weaken our current defence too and with the Danes looking aggresive, it's not the smartest move.

At this point I don't think the Swedes were considered a large threat anyway.

[AntiochusIII]

1 B and 2 B

Maximillian of Bavaria, as the nominal leader of the Catholic League, would prove to be an excellent negotiator for this upcoming negotiation. Besides, he seems pleased with the choice. The Polish won't be offended by the negotiator choice, either, since he is supposedly an important figure. Hopefully a successful, favorable deal will be made. You yourself can't be tied up far away from the heated locations and other electors won't have that much interest in the alliance.

Even though the Polish won't be that happy to be in the Catholic League (and thus involved in the grand scheme of Europe which they'd rather avoid) we need to declare ourselves as full supporters of Poland, while not actually support them fully. As the Holy Roman Empire (and the Hapsburg), you have much in terms of duty. One of these, unfortunately, is a religious obligation for the Catholics. Money alone in secret won't do you any good in the diplomatic scene, even though it will no doubt slow down Swedish advance. Fully support them with troops would only annoy the Polish and leave you vulnerable to attacks by your many enemies and vassals.

That Dutch invasion idea seems interesting. If it happens, it will be hard, though, as the Dutch are experienced and well-fortified from their long struggle against the Spanish, and the German princes might in fact rebel against you early if you press the initiative too hard.

[Mr White]

It's quite clear that we should send Maximillian for obvious reasons. What he should offer is a different matter. As many pointed out politics and image are very important so secret aide won't help us much and could even work against us. Sending our own men in Poland isn't an option either as this will anger the polish population.

If we want to be seen by the world as the protectors of catholisism, help has to be offered. I would offer the poles some mercenary troops, as mentioned above, under Polish command of course and the promise of support of our own troops if the Polish King would find it necessary. In this way the whole world can see that the HRE is willing to help Catholic countries with no strings attached. In the worst case scenario: Poland stands on the verge of defeat and calls upon our oath to help them defend against the 'evil' Swedes. In case of misbehaving German soldiers the Polish population can't but blame their king as he specifically asked for our troops to come to Poland.

We could be on the verge of an all out war between catholicism and protestantism. How we are seen by other nations is now of the utmost importance. Doing nothing, or appearing to do nothing, isn't an option as this will make us seem weak, undecisive or indifferent.
Immediate military action will portray us as aggressive and a threat. This will isolate us from our allies and potential allies. The possibility of aggression against the HRE will also rise.
Offering help to all who need it and ask for it ( within reason of course) will help us build our image as champion of the catholic values. This will secure support if we ourselves should need it.