Iran & Nuclear Armaments: The Sequel/War in Iran!

[Proletariat]

Why do you think the onus is on Israel to talk to the Iranian government, in light of the recent slew of 'Iranian Diplomacy'?

Why do you seem to think that only the 'ruling elite' will have access to this capability, after Iran obtains it?

[Just A Girl]

If we go back to the cold war.
and Americans persicuting comunists.

Russia and america had nukes.
Some pointing at eachother.
This created a cold war,

The russians devized A Huge oil tanker that would be floated out to see it would contain Enough explosive neucular waste To destroy all life on earth,

The idea being Sensors would be in russia,
and if neucliar fall out was detected
(to the russians meaning comunism would die "Not the people" but Comunsim)
The Ship would Detonate.

Thank fully, To my knowlage they never built this Ship.
And nukes were pointed away again.

Do we really want to risk Some 1 Actualy Builing this Ship of Death. just as a deterant?
I dont like the idea personally As Sensors OFTEN fail.

Suplying every 1 with nukes, is NOT a good idea.
Suplying ANY 1 with nukes is not a good idea.

One day there gonna manage to ruin this planet for ever.
And unfortunatly
I beleve its going to happen in my life time.

[Papewaio]

How safe would you have felt if it was Nazi's getting the bomb and they said that they will wipe out Israel?

[Adrian II]

Why do you think the onus is on Israel to talk to the Iranian government, in light of the recent slew of 'Iranian Diplomacy'?

Why do you think Israel does business with Pakistan, as it has done with Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mandela's South Africa? Self-interest. Staying informed. Remaining on top of developments.

Why do you seem to think that only the 'ruling elite' will have access to this capability, after Iran obtains it?

Because ruling elites want to rule, not die in a hell of their own inadvertent making.

[Adrian II]

How safe would you have felt if it was Nazi's getting the bomb and they said that they will wipe out Israel?

Just as safe, providing that the balance of power were similar to today's. Which it wasn't in the late 1930's, at least not in Europe. Iran risks total annihilation if it cooperates in the pursuit of a nuclear weapon by non-state actors.

If you contemplate military action to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, that is a dead end. You would have to start with Pakistan, then on to Iran.

When is it again that you are up for election, Papewaio?

[Papewaio]

Pakistan developed the bomb with their own scientists, that and they have a decent cricket team.

As for the Iranians they stopped Australia getting into the last Football (Soccer) World Cup. So they at least know how to play a civilised sport.

I actually feel safer with Iran getting the bomb then any of the 1930's powers in Europe (British, French and Soviets included) and a lot safer then North Korea who's leader may want to have the same kind of lasting fame as John Lennon's killer... someone willing to murder to keep their name(s) in the history book.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Because ruling elites want to rule, not die in a hell of their own inadvertent making.

That assumes an ordinary, sane minded, person. But what sane person would blow themselves up on the back of a bus?

I know the theocrats of Iran are far removed from that, and would have their lessers blow themselves up. But what if they viewed the nuclear annihilation of their enemies as some sort of God-given duty, that only they should carry out, because of the great destruction it would accomplish?

"Mahdaviat is a code for [Iran's Islamic] revolution, and is the spirit of the revolution," says the head of an institute dedicated to studying and speeding the Mahdi's appearance. "This kind of mentality makes you very strong," observes the political editor of Resalat newspaper, Amir Mohebian. "If I think the Mahdi will come in two, three, or four years, why should I be soft? Now is the time to stand strong, to be hard."

Crazed Rabbit

[Adrian II]

Pakistan developed the bomb with their own scientists, that and they have a decent cricket team.

Actually Abdul Qadeer Khan learned just about all the tricks of his trade in The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium before he put them to use (and not very originally, say insiders and experts) in General Zia ul-Haq's backyard. Iran's scientists have probably contributed more to both the field of nuclear physics and the production of their 'own' bomb than Pakistan's.

[Strike For The South]

The day I let Iran have a nuke is the day America sells them one becuase we have invented the death star!

[Kralizec]

But...you already have!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

stolen from this thread

[Papewaio]

Actually Abdul Qadeer Khan learned just about all the tricks of his trade in The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium before he put them to use (and not very originally, say insiders and experts) in General Zia ul-Haq's backyard. Iran's scientists have probably contributed more to both the field of nuclear physics and the production of their 'own' bomb than Pakistan's.

The science side of making a bomb isn't that difficult, it is the refinemint of the Uranium (and the energy that some of these processes can take) that can be difficult... of course this is somewhat side stepped by using breeder reactors... once you have the initial feedstock you can create both weapon grade materials and have an energy surplus...

[Adrian II]

I know the theocrats of Iran are far removed from that, and would have their lessers blow themselves up. But what if they viewed the nuclear annihilation of their enemies as some sort of God-given duty, that only they should carry out, because of the great destruction it would accomplish?

Yes, what if? What if you bomb their nuclear installations and they manage to hide some Doomsday machine and explode it in Iraq, or Israel, or in the United States in retaliation? There is no fool-proof strategy of containment, is there?

My biggest worry for several years has been that some obscure, influential Saudi would use his wealth, diplomatic clout and connections in Saudi intelligence circles to procure a 'ready'-made' nuclear weapon from Khan and hand it to some real ideological monster. If you are looking for the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse, look no further than Saudi Arabia. That country has the most hard-core eschatological sects of the entire Muslim world. It also has some immensely rich, idiosyncratic royal family members who are able and possibly willing to provide them with the necessary means. The Saudis have co-financed all of Khan's projects, particularly when he was strapped for cash because of international (American) economic sanctions, and they used to have a lot of clout in Islamabad for that reason. Saudi royals were the only foreigners ever allowed to visit Khan's labs and witness his tests. The doctor has many personal friends in Ryad...

[Adrian II]

The science side of making a bomb isn't that difficult, it is the refinemint of the Uranium (and the energy that some of these processes can take) that can be difficult... of course this is somewhat side stepped by using breeder reactors... once you have the initial feedstock you can create both weapon grade materials and have an energy surplus...

Anyone can make a decent boeuf Bourguignon if and when he has the right cooking staff, the right ingredients and a proper mise-en-place. The art is in collecting the right ingredients, hiring the right staff and ensuring the proper mise-en-place at the right moment.

Those tricks Khan learned abroad, particularly the breeder technology -- which he could develop thanks to his former academic and industrial contacts in Western Europa and the United States. They kept providing him with blueprints, tools and resources well after his industrial espionage had become public knowledge (which was in the early 1980's, when he was sentenced in absentia to several years in prison in The Neds).

[Papewaio]

If you have the material you could clap two bricks of enriched uranium together and get a sustained reaction.

With the right geometric shapes you could clap the bricks to gether and go thermo.

The hard part isn't making a functional bomb. It is making a smaller one and getting the material for it.

Also if the people are only trying to make a short term bomb... ie they intend to use it soon, then a lot of the other design aspects would be easier... no need to figure out how long the weapon grade material stays at that level.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Good Discussion.

AdrianII:

Egads! I'd forgotten the stray members of the Sauds -- but the scenario you outline is all too plausible. This is precisely the kind of fear I have and why I feel action to limit nuclear proliferation may be necessary (regardless of its legitimacy). Ugly choices for ugly possibilities.

Don C:

You did not include the 1967 -- a.k.a. 6 Days -- conflict in the list of Israeli aggression. They had lots of credible evidence that the various powers were preparing to assault Israel, but they did, at least technically, strike first.

On your larger points, you and I are in close agreement.

[Don Corleone]

If Canada put 18 divisions in Hamilton, Mexico put 23 in Mexicali and Montrety, our Navy reported that a combined Russian, French and Chinese fleet was approximately 10 miles from the mouth of the Chesapeake (the tidal basin that leads to Washington D.C.) and we had airspace violations from some unknown foe all across Florida, would we really be the agressors if we didn't wait for them to get their timing right?

Saying Israel was the agressor in the 6 Days War is like saying Poland started the fight with Germany in WWII. Come on.

[Just A Girl]

If you have the material you could clap two bricks of enriched uranium together and get a sustained reaction.

Lol yeah.
and you d prolly get blined.
And youd die of radiation posioning in about 3 months after you did it lol.

Also if the people are only trying to make a short term bomb... ie they intend to use it soon, then a lot of the other design aspects would be easier... no need to figure out how long the weapon grade material stays at that level

Well seeing as necular material Has A half life.
Its never really a question of how long it will last.

if it takes 2 years for 1/2 the origional material to become depleated.
it will take a futher 2 years for the other 1/2 to become 1/2 stength

then a further 2 years for the remaining 1/4 to become 1/2 stength

and a futher 2 years for the remaning 1/8th to become 1/2 strength

And a further 2 years for the remaning 1/16th to become 1/2 strength.

wel u get it

1/32
1/64
1/128
1/265

the question is at which Fraction the Does the radiation become Non lethal.

it could be

1/2560

thats 1600 years.....
At a half life of 2 years,.
and most nucular material has a half life of Longer.

[Divinus Arma]

If we go back to the cold war.
and Americans persicuting comunists.

Russia and america had nukes.
Some pointing at eachother.
This created a cold war,

The russians devized A Huge oil tanker that would be floated out to see it would contain Enough explosive neucular waste To destroy all life on earth,

The idea being Sensors would be in russia,
and if neucliar fall out was detected
(to the russians meaning comunism would die "Not the people" but Comunsim)
The Ship would Detonate.

Thank fully, To my knowlage they never built this Ship.
And nukes were pointed away again.

Do we really want to risk Some 1 Actualy Builing this Ship of Death. just as a deterant?
I dont like the idea personally As Sensors OFTEN fail.

Suplying every 1 with nukes, is NOT a good idea.
Suplying ANY 1 with nukes is not a good idea.

One day there gonna manage to ruin this planet for ever.
And unfortunatly
I beleve its going to happen in my life time.

Is this a poem?

[Just A Girl]

Is this a poem?

Lol no..

Its just how i Write.
sometimes it looks wrong..
Sometimes it looks right.

Im noot the kind of person to start a fight
over a comment Tht brings
my writing style to light.

Some times it works.
sometimes it wont
Sometimes i make a poem
Some times I dont.

Answers ya question?

[Divinus Arma]

Lol no..

Its just how i Write.
sometimes it looks wrong..
Sometimes it looks right.

Im noot the kind of person to start a fight
over a comment Tht brings
my writing style to light.

Some times it works.
sometimes it wont
Sometimes i make a poem
Some times I dont.

Answers ya question?

I like a girl
who isnt a girl
when I see her schlong
I want to hurl

Shambles' his name
yep that's his name
His sister uses his account sometimes
and confuses the hell out of everyone

[Strike For The South]

I like a girl
who isnt a girl
when I see her schlong
I want to hurl

Shambles' his name
yep that's his name
His sister uses his account sometimes
and confuses the hell out of everyone

you can do better than that

[solypsist]

get this thread back on topic or bye bye

[Divinus Arma]

It's difficult to keep Israel out of this discussion as you mentioned, because the security of Israel is tied to the nuclear capabilities of Iran. Period.

A nuclear empowered Iran is a "clear and present dnager" to the the existence of Israel. I think that Crazed Rabbit is right. Iran may be willing to commit a self-sacrifice in order to destroy Israel. This is a somewhat unique challenge when compared against more rational nations which seek self-preservation.

Adrian II, true as it may be that the leaders of Iran are cowards, it is contendable as to the motivation of the leadership there.

[Divinus Arma]

...Is inevitable!

The path to war is being lit by Iran itself.

Article showing similarities between Iraq and Iran.

Sounds familiar?
IRAQ

WMD

Signatory of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty accused of holding weapons of mass destruction including a nuclear arms programme. UN weapons inspectors were expelled from the country on the eve of the 2003 war.

CONCEALMENT

Confirmed to UN in 1995 that it had a clandestine nuclear weapons scheme following revelations by Saddam Hussein's brother-in-law who had defected. Before 2003 invasion, regime was accused of concealing WMD from UN inspectors.

MISCALCULATION

Colin Powell, US Secretary of State, 5 March 2003: "It serves the interest of no one for Saddam to miscalculate. It doesn't serve the interest of the United States or the world or Iraq for Saddam to miscalculate our intention or our willingness to act."

SECURITY COUNCIL

November 2002: Iraq threatened with military action unless it co-operates with UN inspectors. US leads invasion without Security Council backing.

IRAN

WMD

Signatory of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty accused of working on nuclear weapons programme. UN weapons inspectors are at work in the country.

CONCEALMENT

Confirmed to UN in 2002 that it had a clandestine nuclear programme after revelations by Iranian dissidents. Iran was accused by Britain, France and Germany yesterday of "concealment and deception".

MISCALCULATION

White House spokesman Scott McClellan, 11 January, 2006: "The Iranian regime has made a serious miscalculation.If negotiations have run their course and Iran is not going to negotiate in good faith, then there's no other option but to refer the matter to the Security Council."

SECURITY COUNCIL

12 January 2006: Britain, France and Germany call for Iran to be referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions. Failure to reach agreement could give US hawks - and Israel - an excuse for unilateral military action.

I don't agree with the left-leaning statement of U.S. and Israeli "excuse for military action" since peace and cooperation is always preferable to war, even by us hawks. The article still has some valid points.


I know we have a topic on Iran already, but the purpose of this thread is to discuss the very real possibility of war, the process of getting to that point, who the major players will be, the regional and global implications, etc.re:conflict.


With the Israeli political scene a mess, will the acting PM take the necessary action when Iran's capabilities become clear? Will Israel set the stage by bombing Iran as they have done in the past when Iran sought nuclear capabilities? Clearly, the answer is yes. But what will the reaction of Iran be? Will they make the mistake of retaliating against Israel? Let's hope not, because then the poor Iranians will suffer a horrible fate thanks to their own radical leadership.

What say you, oh Orgahs?

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

reading the news overt the past few weeks.......
.....the similarities were starting to get a little disturbing anyway.

I heard that Russia is now putting pressure on Iran too. In fact I've got the impression that some of the waverers on Iraq are sliding into place in the "quit it Iran" group.

[Just A Girl]

About a week after they Atacked iraq.
They were saying They should have attacked Iran,
Then that went all quiet.

It seems as though its re emerging....

What was it nostradamus said that would destroy the world around about now?
A great ball of fire from the east wasnt it?

Good.
Bout damn time this planet was given back to the animals

[Divinus Arma]

Nostradomus is an idiot. Focus. This is gonna happen. I just hope the U.S. is smart enought to let Europe lead in some areas on this (even though France and Germany would rather let Iran have the bomb, those weak-kneed cowards).

[Fragony]

About bloody time, I cannot stand that mountaingoat.

[English assassin]

Has the US got the resources to invade and subdue Iran as well as maintaining its presence in Iraq? Regardless of whether an attack would be a good thing, can you actually do it?

I have previously been cheerleader in chief for the Iranians (at least amongst non-Iranian posters) but I have to say my opinions have changed. Ahmadinejad is plainly very bad news indeed and my hopes for gradual modernisation have been rather dashed. Under no circumstances should this regime be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

Once again its ordinary Iranians who get the **** end of the stick though.

[Fragony]

Once again its ordinary Iranians who get the **** end of the stick though.

One could say that they elected him. But I think they just voted against the corruption. The people of Iran should keep that backward goat in check, they must know they will be attacked eventually. All out war isn't really necesary, just shake up the infrastructure a bit and wait for the next elections, I doubt he will be re-elected.