Iran & Nuclear Armaments: The Sequel/War in Iran!

[Don Corleone]

I am sure your grand strategy will go down a riot.

I don't have a grand strategy. I just urge caution. I really have a hard time believing, despite everything they've done over the past 27 years, the mullahs are suddenly going to become tranquil and focus inwards once they get the bomb. I hope it makes them feel more secure and that they don't continue to support global terrorism, but I find the odds are probably against it.

What's more, rather than pretending there is no risk, I really would like to see what France, Russia and China have to offer in terms of solutions. It's clear that diplomacy with the Iranians has not led to where it was intended. What's next? If the matter goes to the Security Council, the Iranians have already claimed they'll kick out all inspectors and go for broke to finish up their program. It looks to me like the Iranians are holding all the cards, and they don't feel like playing nice anymore.

[Watchman]

Who'd want to end up as the next Saddam anyway ? His deterrent was smoke and mirrors (although he may not have known it himself), and look where that got him. Where a fake has proven unworkable, get a real one.

Personally, I suspect there's little short of actual war (which nobody really has the resources or inclination for; state-level invasion have gotten awfully costly and complicated since WW2) that can be done to keep the Iranians from building their bomb if they seriously decide it's in their best interests to. If it really comes down to it they can always throw caution to the wind and finish the program while gambling on looking like far too thorny a prospect for anyone to stamp down before it's ready - after which they probably have the insurance and prestige they want, if not exactly many friends.

I sincerely doubt if they'd go giving the nasty little firecrackers around just for fun, though - little sense in doing so anyway, as the current real hardcore Muslim ultras aren't exactly Shi'ite friendly to begin with, and if there's a mushroom cloud in NY (or Paris, or London) odds are the next one blooms over Teheran within the hour, no committees involved and no inquiries made.
And suicidal stupidity never struck me as being a big hit among the Irani brass. It's one thing to toe the line and entirely another to drive a tank over it, if you see what I mean.

[Don Corleone]

I see what you mean, but what if a moderate scale radioactive contamination shows up in Haifa and Tel Aviv? Do you still think the world would be immediately prepared to nuke Tehran with no direct evidence?

I don't think Iran is governed by morons either. But I do think they won't stop until they find a way to 1) exterminate Israel now 2) spread the revolution worldwide, long term.

[Watchman]

I don't think Iran is governed by morons either. But I do think they won't stop until they find a way to 1) exterminate Israel now 2) spread the revolution worldwide, long term.

And *I* think you're taking their rhetoric at face value rather too easily. The Communist Block preached fire and brimstone about world revolution from the word go, and look how far that ever got.

Hot air, when you come down to it, doesn't cost a thing.

[Don Corleone]

Hmmm, I wish Iran was just full of hot air:

We have this...

They paid and trained Hezbollah to do this...

Here's a list of the kidnappings they've performed, where the victims, such as Bill Buckley, get transferred back to Iran where they are tortured and killed...

They kill Iranian dissidents across Europe. I mean come on, the evidence of Iranian involvement in terrorist activities for the past 27 years is undeniable. Do you really think that's all going to turn to 'hot air' because they got the bomb?

[Watchman]

Of course not. But that still doesn't mean they'd have anything to gain from leaking nukes to the nutty bombers, or that they'd want to start playing Chicken! with a serious pyrotechnics budget with Israel.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The problem isn't the government handing over a nuke -- as you note, they aren't cheap and if you like being in the nuclear club you want to keep them. Don C and I are also concerned about security. Radicalized countries with nukes may grow less radical, but it doesn't mean that you won't find a few folks who agree with Osama and manage to "look the other way" when a warhead gets swiped.

Doc C:

The Israeli decision to stop-punch the impending invasion in 1967 was a brilliant one, and paid off handsomely. I am well aware that the threat they "agressed" to counter was imminent and real. As to Poland, didn't the Nazis invade to avenge that radio station....

However, as our "esteemed" Senator from West Virginia might aver, they did fire first. You'll remember his arguments against the invasion of Iraq because they had not attacked us directly -- he wanted to wait for the hit.