Right here.

Unfortunately I have to disagree with Soly. There is a very good chance that it will happen. We came within a hair of it back in '95. Less than 1% of the vote won it for our side. The separatists resorted to intimidation at the polls, illegal voter disqualification, and outright vote tampering and they came close enough to their goal to scare the piss out of everybody.

The separatist leaders are very, very good at convincing the people that they are oppressed and willing to resort to any means that will help them achieve their goal. As it stands, 40% of Quebecers support separation at any time. All they need is a lit fuse to get the other 11%.

If they do succeed, the one consolation is that they will not get the entire territory of Quebec. It's too big for them to control by force and even if they do win, there will be millions of people who will not want to go along with their new country (like me) and who will refuse to leave (like me) - that means partition of the province. That could lead to an ugliness not seen in North America in a long time. The separatists will want Montreal since it's the jewel in the crown. The problem is that Montreal, by and large, will not want to separate. One "solution" has been to divide the city right down the middle (Hello? Berlin?) but the separatists will never agree. Bombs and gunshots might follow, it's happened here before.

More than likely if there is separation, the province will be carved up after months if not years of negotiations into two parts; the province of Quebec and the republic of Quebec. The province will want to get on with life and get back to business. The republic will seethe and fume and spend the next fifty years blaming everything on Canada. Just like they do now.

One thing though, throughout all of this the Americans will play a heavy role. The US will make it extraordinarily clear that if there is even the threat of a disruption to the power supply heading south, shipping on the St-Lawrence, or if violence takes place too close to the border, heads will roll in a big, big way.

This benefits the federalist side in the debate. If the native Cree up north get too pissed off at the separatists (there is a long hatred between the separatists and the natives over land and resource rights)), all they have to do is threaten to bring down the major hydro lines heading south from James Bay in the winter and the US will squeeze the separatists like jello. The idea of millions of Americans freezing in the dark in January because of trouble up north will not sit well with the powers that be in the US.