Predictions for Canada's next gov't, make your picks!

[Goofball]

Well, it looks like we Canucks are headed to the polls in January. Let’s see everyone’s picks.

I’m think the Conservatives are going to be disappointed. People just don’t like Stephen Harper. While he remains head of the party, they are doomed to not being able to form a government.

My prediction:

The only ones who will benefit from this election are the NDP and the Bloc. The liberals will lose a seat or two to each party, but still be able to form a minority gov’t. Harper and the Conservatives may even lose a seat or two.

[KukriKhan]

Are voters going to be kinda miffed, since they just had an election 18 months ago?

Having frequent elections here ended up working against our Governator, lots of folks voting against his proposals in sheer protest over the extra expense and inconvenience.

[Goofball]

Are voters going to be kinda miffed, since they just had an election 18 months ago?

Having frequent elections here ended up working against our Governator, lots of folks voting against his proposals in sheer protest over the extra expense and inconvenience.

Typically, voters being miffed at the frequency of elections works against the opposition party(ies), since it is their actions that precipitate the election. That's one of the reasons I don't think the Conservatives will do well.

I'm curious: who was it who picked the Conservatives to win a majority gov't, and what is your reasoning behind that pick?

[KukriKhan]

Not me; I went with Liberal Majority, guessing that our Canuckian brothers will slog thru the snow to give a firmer footing (closer to a mandate) to the party that most reflects their will.

But that's only a guess, and not a very educated one. Still, I'd bet $5 and a six-pack on it. :)

[Beelzebub]

Not me; I went with Liberal Majority, guessing that our Canuckian brothers will slog thru the snow to give a firmer footing (closer to a mandate) to the party that most reflects their will.

But that's only a guess, and not a very educated one. Still, I'd bet $5 and a six-pack on it. :)

Actually, former Liberal MP Carolyn Parish (a silly woman not known for holding her tongue) just recently conceded that -20c winter conditions will help the conservatives more, cuz conservative voters have more dedication to their civic duty while a liberal voter could be more easily catagorized as a "dude it's cold out, screw that and pass the joint" type.

ANyways, it's pretty much mathematically impossible the liberals will form a majority because they're going to be absolutely slaughtered in quebec by the bloc. Even this is assuming they can manage to somehow win all of ontario, which the polls indicate is very unlikely.

Also I think the whole "reflecting canadians' will" theory is very silly. The public can very easily have their opinions changed by good leaders, but Canadian politicians generally don't try and be leaders, they just try and offer easy solutions that boost poll #s. Even the conservatives fall into that trap because they think you need to, to win. History has proven time and time again that a charismatic leader can easily bring people along through anything (Recently Raegan, Trudeau, Thatcher), but these guys all just playing politician and don't want to step up and lead. There is no real canadian will, we are pretty much just like americans or any english (or non) western country but with crappier politicians.

[Hurin_Rules]

The problem for the conservatives is who their partner would be.

It is highly unlikely they will win a majority. A minority is a possibility (though I still think the liberals will win the most seats), but even if they win that, who will they form a government with? Not the liberals, obviously. The NDP is even further left than the liberals, and so obviously out of the question. That leaves the Bloc: a Quebec based separatist party, which is basically the antithesis of everything the conservatives stand for. So how are they supposed to form a government? They have no possible allies.

[KukriKhan]

I appreciate your interesting analysis, Beelzebub; I admit to staggering ignorance of the details of Dominion politics.

Hurin_Rules: isn't that dilemma what has led to this election being called in the first place?

[Beelzebub]

Dumb people are, but most people realised this govt was going nowhere with a minority power and no real coalition. It's amazing it even managed to stick around this long (avoided falling early this summer by 1 vote).

Right now a change is desperatly needed because Paul Martin is pulling out all the stops to stay in power, recklessly spending billions and making up everything as he goes along to try and boost poll #s.

Stephan Harper isn't well known by Canadians, and most of what they do know is from liberal attack ads that have painted him as some kind of cowboy american boogeyman (unfortunatly it works, just look at the stunts Shroeder pulled in 2 german elections to save his ass). Personally I think he is a good family man who's dedicated his life to the study of economics and genuinly wants to make a difference..Don't know why canadians would dislike him more than ambitous billionaire paul martin who just wants power.

edit: Another advantage the conservatives have is a huge amount more funding available, something like 11 million in their warchest, all from their good small donations grassroots network. The Liberal party on the other hand is practically in debt. The conservatives will be spending a lot more on ads, which if done right could really help alter their public image.

Anyways, I think the conservatives will win a minority, they almost won the last one, but in the end they were too disorganised and made mistakes and fell apart at the end. But since then theyve improved while the liberals have done a terrible job. Once the conservatives are in minority, power they will get their chance, in the spotlight, Harper will either become well known and liked by Canadians in which case they have a shot at a majority govt down the road, or Harper will be proven as not cut out for leader, in which case the Liberals could make a huge comeback with the right leader (NOT MARTIN).