Serialized novel: OFFICER’S HONOR

[Franconicus]

Do you remember this?

Chapter 1

PREVIOUS HISTORY

As Speer talks about the Panther you can see how Hitler is impressed and almost like a little boy when he finds a new toy. He tried to rush past the trouble of the reliability of the Panther, but you jump at it.

"Mein Führer, the Panther is obviously going to be a superb tank in battle, and I woul lov to have it with me when we attack." You turn to Speer. "I urge you Minister Speer, to get as many as possible out on the front at once."
Hitler looks back and forth between the two of you, clearly filled with joy, but before he can say anything you do what must be done. "I want all the tanks you have at the moment, right now! The problems of the tanks going up in flames for no apparent reason is debilitating, I want that ironed out as soon as possible. And we all know that the best way to test a tank is on the battlefield. Send a lot of technicians as well." Now Hitler is less joyful.

"Wait a second Herr Field Marshall." Ow, when he uses titles it can't be good. "The Panther should stay in stock where the technicians can work on it, and it will remain a secret. It is important that we do not let this advantage slip."
"If we had time I would agree, but since time is of the essence we must send it out right away. The quirks and problems arise much faster at the front and can thus much easier be corrected, besides the time will not allow the Russians to react to the Panther, now will they need to as there won't be that many."
"Hmmm... I'm not happy about such a case. Remember what happened with the Tiger when my generals wanted it fast at the front?" You remember clearly what happened to it, though the general had a very small part in it.
"Yes, I remember. But this is an entirely new case. The Tiger was meant to be a rude shock, the Panther is meant to be a main battle tank, hiding it won't help much really."
"Very well, I can accept that, but you better not squander them."
Right then Speer joins in. "But we haven't produced more than some 20 operational tanks, what are they worth? Such a low number would be problematic for the logistics." Hitler of course favours Speer. "I hadn't thought of that, yes hold them back."
"No... The minor problem with the logistics will be overcome, we are already having several other trial units. What about von Richthofens' cannon Stukas? There are what, 6 of them? Have the Luftwaffe complained about that? In any case, we have to do this. I can't imagine the trouble if we lost some 100 tanks because of reliability in a major battle. This way we risk less, we are already far behind in tank numbers, we can't afford to have all the important tanks break down."
Speer nods, seeing your argument. And with his agreement Hitler is once again put in a tough spot, he has no more rational points to make. For another couple of minutes you fight Hitler over the issue, going through the entire range of mental states, you rage, argue, begs, urge, demands and even threaten to resign. In the end you are exhausted, but Hitler is even more so. He waves you off with a short comment. "Fine, have it your way!"

Yes, it is stolen from Kraxis
It is the start of his trip through history asuming Manstein tries to win the war with Hitler. I'd like to go another way, trying to win (or at least end) the war without Hitler.

Please note that I am not Kraxis. So please do not expect me to do a story as accurate and brilliant as he did. I even won't do it as interactive as he did.

Of course I have a rough idea how the story begins. But then, there are too many questions and I am sure I will need your help. And who could help better then the MONASTERIES? So let's have fun!

So my question for the weekend:
When do you think is the time that Manstein has to make the decision to oppone Hitler?

P.S.: Did I mention that my English isnot very good?
Have a nice weekend

Moderator, could you please make it sticky? Thank you!

[King Kurt]

I think we should have him bump into a dissident general - what about Rommel, snatched back from Tunisia, disgruntled with being left in the lurch in North Africa - or one of the other generals in the 1944 plot. That would give him the thought which can be mulled over during operations around Kursk.

If we contribute - do we get to share the movie rights???!!!! - I see lots more long periods of mulling over "what if options" - looking forward to being invoved from the begining

[Franconicus]

I think we should have him bump into a dissident general - what about Rommel, snatched back from Tunisia, disgruntled with being left in the lurch in North Africa - or one of the other generals in the 1944 plot. That would give him the thought which can be mulled over during operations around Kursk.

If we contribute - do we get to share the movie rights???!!!! - I see lots more long periods of mulling over "what if options" - looking forward to being invoved from the begining

King,
The question today is: When is the time for M. to decide to get rid of A.H.?
About your share: Of course you will have to share the fees for Kraxis
And this is your extra bonus: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Karte_Ukraine.png

[Kagemusha]

Great this came soon Franconicus sama! For your question,first we have to create a web around hitler in order to decide when we can end his regime.We should contact trustworthy people.
BTW if King Kurt gets Ukraina what is here to gain for Kagemusha?

[King Kurt]

I don't see Manstein having a Damascas moment and suddenly deciding - I see it as an idea which is planted - by say meeting a dissident general - and he grapples with the idea against the background of the Kursk battle. This way, we add an additional collection of "what ifs" - should he do it or not, the dissident general - is he for real or is he a double agent, does M do it off his own back or does he become a figurehead of a broader movement. The Kursk thread was good because, although we all thought we knew what would happen, Kraxis had us guessing to the end - so we should provoke lots of possible directions for the story to go. I'm off for the weekend - look forward to seeing some material on Monday.

As for my share - I can almost see those endless fields of wheat - criss-crossed with tank tracks.

[Franconicus]

Chapter 2

PRELUDE

After your meeting with Hitler you decide not to return to Russia immediately. Now that the offensive is postponed you want to refresh contacts at home. Maybe you can get more support. Further more you want to try to get a better view of the overall strategic situation.

You have another meeting with Speer. He wants to talk about the eastern front. You tell him about the increasing strength of the Red Army and he promises to do the best he can to improve the equipment and supply of your troops. According to his plans the output of tanks and planes will increase significantly in 1943.

He tells you about his concerns about the air raids over Germany. So far, the RAF could not affect the production although the losses among civilians are high. But our night fighters are getting stronger now and Göring told him that the Tommies cannot pay the price much longer. Speer is more worried about the activities of the USAAF. Day attacks could become a problem when 4 Mots start to come in bigger numbers.

Afterwards you have a long meeting with the Inspector-General of the Armoured Troops Guderian. You speak about the events in the last six months:
November - British and US troops landed in Western Africa
January - Conference of Casablanca with the demand of an unconditional surrender
February - the disaster of Stalingrad; then the Soviet attacks on the Heeresgruppe Süd and the success at Charkow to stop the Russians.
the build up of the Heeresgruppe Afrika
the operation to take Tunis
the battle at the Kasserine. Now the Heeresgruppe is heavily struggling in defense.

Guderian tells you that there is no plan to get the soldiers out of Africa. Rommel will give his commandership to General von Arnim. This is a sign that the Heeresgruppe won’t be able to stand much longer.
Finally you talk about the situation in Russia. Guderian does not agree to attack this summer. He prefers building a good defensive line with strong independent tank formations behind it. That is the only way to stop a Soviet attack in winter and to build a big tank force to respond any invasion of the western allies. On the whole you agree. But you’d rather fight the Soviets in summer than to wait until winter. You still have the idea to destroy so many Soviet armies that they cannot start a new attack this winter. Then troops would be released to fight the Western allies. Guderian give you a warning. He fears that the eastern armies will get into the same trap as they did last year. Exhausted by the attempt to break strong defensive lines crushed by a Soviet counter strike. That is what happened at Moscow and Stalingrad. Once again you realize that Guderian is an excellent expert of the eastern front. You remember that it was him who closed the gap at Kiew in 1941 and captured more than 660 thousand Russians there. He also fought the battle at Bryansk with another 600 thousand prisoners.

Guderian tells you that Rommel will come to Berlin soon. He will get the Knight's Cross with Oak Leaves, Swords, and Diamonds. Guderian will arrange a meeting with him.
Of course you also have to meet Keitel. When you visit him in his office you find Zeitzler with him. Keitel does not ask for information about the situation in Russia. He just repeats the point of views you already heard from Hitler. He also starts demanding a total victory in the east and expresses his confession that the Endsieg is near. You start getting bored. Zeitzler is ordered to make a plan for operation Zitadelle. He wants to discuss some details. You invite him to visit the front. He tells you that he is indispensable. When you leave Keitel tells you that Hitler will give you the Knight's Cross with Oak Leaves.
So you meet Hitler again at March 14th. When he gives you the decoration he tells you that you are one of his best generals and that he relies on you. “With generals like you”, he said, “nothing can stop me from beating its enemies and to create a new, shiny Germany”. Once more you feel that he is very charismatic. However, you remember how he influenced the operations in Russia and all the recriminations and insults.

After the ceremony Goebbels and Rommel appear. Goebbels wants to take a few propaganda pictures of Rommel and you with your new Knight’s crosses. After that Goebbels invites you to have dinner with him.

You meet Rommel and Guderian this evening. Rommel tells you about lessons learned in Africa. You hear the frustration when he talks about allied air power. From his point of view the US troops are inferior to the Germans. They lack of experience, spirit and discipline. Their leadership is poor. The German tanks can easily deal with the Sherman. However, this tank is better than the British. The only problem is the allied air power. They attack everything they see. Without supply and air support his troops had no choice but to retreat.

The Italians will not fight much longer. They are tired of this war. He even suspects the Italian Supreme Command to have rattened his efforts.

Rommel speaks bitter about Hitler. He says he had to fight in Africa without support from home. All he received were accuses and stupid orders. At El Alamein he even had to retreat against Hitler’s orders to rescue his troops. Now they are trapped at Tunis and there is probably no way to get them back. They will stand for the next two months maybe but then they will have to capitulate. This will be a military disaster as big as Stalingrad.

Then he calls on you let them know something more about Stalingrad. You say that it is a similar story. Hitler’s orders made the Heeresgruppe Süd stretch their lines and gave the Soviets the opportunity to close the 6th army in. Even then Hoth would have rescued them if Hitler only made them sally. He is responsible for the loss of a complete army. You also report of the defensive operations in spring. You tell them that you had to fight against the Soviets and Hitler’s ideas. One example is the fall of Charkow. The town was held by SS troops. When the Soviets attacked Hitler told them to stay and fight until the end. Everybody saw that this was nonsense and so the SS leader Paul Hauser ordered his troops to retreat. Two weeks later your counter strike took the town back. Hitler would have victimized his SS troops for nothing.

All three of you feel that Germany is about to loose the war. Germany is still powerful enough to stop any attack from east or west. But it is Hitler himself who makes the fight futile. It is getting late and you all have a bit too much of that French Cognac. You start playing mind games. What would be if Hitler was gone. Would there be a civil war? How could Germany stand that with enemies in the east and west? On the other hand, is there a chance to win the war with Hitler? Or at least come to a good end? What would the US do? Would they insist on a capitulation? Or would they even join the war against communism? Guderian says that there is nothing he could do against Hitler. His code of honor as a Prussian officer makes this impossible. You ask him: ”Isn’t there a point were your honor calls you for more than just following orders. I am a German officer, not a Nazi follower. I am committed to the German people.” Rommel says: “Erich, what do you think will happen if Hitler is dead? There will be a civil war. The fronts will collapse. Million of innocent will die. Everything we want to avoid will happen. You will be blamed for that.” “Doing nothing is not acceptable for me. I have to do the best I can to prevent Germany from any damage. And yes, I will take the responsibility for all that will happen.” Guderian and Rommel get upset and when you leave you have the feeling that there is a shadow over your friendship.

Next evening you spend with Goebbels. Once again you realize that he is a fascinating man. He can manipulate the people like no one else. But he is also a brainless follower of the Führer. He has no doubt about the Endsieg. He suppresses the possibility that Germany may not win. You feel that under his false front he is filled with horror what might happen to him when he found out he betted on the wrong horse.

After two weeks in Berlin you feel it is time to return to your troops. At your hotel you meet Sepp Dietrich, commander of the Leibstandarte SS ‘Adolf Hitler’ (LSSAH). He received his oak leaves two days after you. You decide to fly back together. Guderian drives you to the airport. Before the plane starts he takes you aside and says: “Erich, I cannot help. I must follow Hitler. He is my commander. Hope you understand. Once he is gone the situation is different. Then you can count on me, whatever you want me to do.” You shake his hand. “I know, Heinz. Be sure, there will a time Germany needs you; even more than it needs you now.”
On your flight back to the front there are a lot of things going through your head. Is there a chance to end this war without loosing every thing? Will Hitler find a way? Is Heinz right? Does it make sense to attack the Soviets? Or should you wait? Can you afford to wait while the Amis are getting stronger and stronger? Isn’t it time to end this war by diplomatic means? Will anybody make peace with Hitler? Is there a time when a general has to turn against his leader? And what will be then? Civil war? Will the allies destroy Germany and enslave the population? Will the communists rule?
Like Rommel said: The dead Hitler is more dangerous than the living one?
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1. How can you convince Guderian and Rommel? Who else do you need?
2. How can you replace Hitler without starting a civil war?

[King Kurt]

The seeds are being laid nicely.
Some pointers:
1) Guderian looks too loyal - I have been doing some surfing on him and he looks too loyal to Hitler to join any revolt - but he might come in when Hitler was dead.
2) To stop civil war, Hitler's death should be an "accident". A possibility here is that Rommel was commander of Hitler's personal bodyguard in the late 30's - so some possible links there. Also, Canaris - head of German intellegence - was quite active in the resistance to Hitler - so maybe some dirty tricks personel could be made available.
3) Looking into the July the 20th plot, there were several attempts on Hitler's life and several small revolts/ coups etc - good link is

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Academy/1148/july.html

This provides lots of details and possible strands/ ideas.

4) For a real wacky idea, how about Hitler's plane being ambushed and shot down by the allies. With info from ULTRA and long range fighters - P38's? - you could come up with a scenario. This is not so far fetched - it was how the Americans killed Admiral Yamoto. When Hitler visits Army group Centre he is only 60 kms from the front.
5) Another alternative would be Goering - he was nominaly number 2 in the Reich, but if Hitler died, Himmler was much more likely to take over. So what about using him, either as a possible part of the plot or a fall guy as a decoy for the real ploters.
6) Another sight with some good biographies of German generals is

http://www.achtungpanzer.com/intro.htm
So food for thought - isn't it time this thread was made sticky?

[Franconicus]

Chapter 7:

THE DUCE

July 1st. In Rome there is Benito Mussolini thinking what the news mean to him. He knew that the situation was critical before. He was wondering how to break the alliance with Hitler and make peace with the Allied. He knows that he will never win the empire he dreamed of. In this war, he can only loose. And he does not know if he can rely on his people or even on his own party.
Now Hitler is dead, murdered by his own people. Mussolini really does not know what to do. Late at night a crowd of people come to his house. It is Marshall Pietro Badoglio and some other members of the Fascistic Council. They tell him that the council decided to end this war. Now that Hitler is gone they do not feel the need to keep the alliance with Germany. They want Mussolini’s demission and tell him that the king already agreed. Mussolini shows no reaction at all. He follows Badoglio. However on the way to the residence of the king the car is stopped by a passenger car and two trucks. German paratroops leave the trucks and encircle Bodoglio’s car. A German general comes out of the car to Mussolini. It is General Student. He says: “Duce, may I bring you back to your office? My men will guard you. We already arrested the members of the Fascist Council. Marshal Badoglio, would you please follow these men?”
Next morning Mussolini makes a radio speech. He assures the new German government the full support and calls the Italian people to fight side by side with their German comrades against the enemy.


STALIN

When Stalin gets the news about Hitler he is shocked. How could this happen? He calls for General Onjanow, Director Intelligence Germany.

When the intelligence officer enters Stalin asks:
“Did you hear the latest news from Germany, Onjanow?”
“Yes, Comrade Stalin, Hitler is dead!”
“Excellent! Now tell me how this happened!”
“Well, we do not know exactly what happened, as yet. Obviously he wanted to visit the troops at the Kursk front. We knew that several important persons were on their way, but we thought it was only Himmler and Keitel.”
“Ah, you thought! And what does the Director Intelligence Germany think about his death?”
“Well, to be honest, we have no explanation so far.”
“No explanation? Could it be that German communists did it?”
“No, not as far as we know.”
“Not as far as you know? What about German conservatives, or military?”
“We have no indices for that.”
“Did we get any information from London?”
“No! The latest information was about the beginning of the German operations at Kursk. They told us they would start at July 5th.”
“So you do not know anything at all!”
“Maybe it was just an accident!”
“Comrade General, go home right now and stay there. You are under arrest.”
”Yes, Comrade Stalin!” The man salutes and leaves the office.

Stalin is very angry. Once more he feels that he is surrounded by incompetence.
Hitler is dead and he has no information what is going on. Well, at least it is clear that it was not a communist action. So it must have been the conservatives. Military or even men from the Nazi party. If this is right then they have contacted the Anglo-Americans first. Maybe it was engineered by the Brits? Doesn’t it look like a Churchill plan? Then his Western Allies may soon make peace with the Germans. Stalin knows very well that they never were in a hurry to attack Germany. And he knows that Churchill hates communists even more than fascists. Sure, they send weapons. But the reason for this is that they are happy that Germans and Russians are killing each others. How many allied soldiers died in the war? And how many were British or Americans?
What if the Americans and the British make peace while the German armies are still in Russia? Then the Soviets will have to fight alone. Maybe even against the British and the Americans, too. They could use this chance to wipe out communism.

The more he thinks about it the more he sees how dangerous the situation is.

In the afternoon the Soviet General Staff Stavka meets. Stalin looks at his commanders. General Zhukov explains the situation at the Central and Woronesch Front. He says that the expected attack did not take place. Instead the Germans are pulling their tank formations back. Partisans observed big railway traffic bringing tanks to the west. There are also rumors that new infantry divisions arrive. Perhaps these are Rumanians. All those facts lead to the conclusion that the Germans are changing to a defensive formation.

Stalin stands up and says: “Comrades, now that Hitler is dead we have a complete different scenario. We do not know what is going on exactly. But we must expect the worst. Now is a time of confusion, not only for us but also for the Germans and the western countries. It might happen that our western allies will find an agreement with the German fascists and will attack us together with them. Our only chance is to use the current confusion and attack the German before they rearrange. We must throw them out of our country before they have time to find an arrangement against us.
I want the Stavka to prepare operation plans to push the Germans out of the country. I want a joint strike of all fronts. These operations have to start within two weeks.”
Zhukov replies: “Comrade Stalin, it is impossible to start an operation of this size within two weeks. Most of our troops are concentrated in the Central, the Woronesch and the Steppe Front. 20 percent of our field divisions, 35 percent of our tanks and 27 percent of our planes are concentrated at this small area. And these forces are not prepared for an offensive operation.”
Stalin remains silent for a moment. Then he says with a soft voice: “Comrade Zhukov, if you are not able someone else will! I expect to see your plans within a week. The meeting is over!”

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CHURCHILL

At the same time there are emergency sessions at London. Also here intelligence has not given any advance warning.

Churchill comes pretty fast to the conclusion that Himmler was the driver of this putsch. But Himmler is dead too. So, who will be the new German leader?

There are two possible scenarios – and Churchill fears both of them:
German army collapses. Then the Soviet will advance rapidly and probably control all Central Europe including Germany. A communist controlled super Europe – that is Churchill’s nightmare.
Germany and Russia find an agreement. They did it before and why shouldn’t they do it again, now that Hitler is gone. Then Germany will concentrate its forces against Britain. And Britain will have to enforce his armies in India and Iraq too. Though Churchill does not doubt that GB will win this war he knows that it will take a long time. But how long will the British be willing to fight, now that the enemy is no longer a cruel fascist dictator? And what about the allies? Canada, Australia, South Africa? When will they be tired of this war? And the US?

How does the new situation affect the war? Right now the Allies accumulate troops for the invasion of Sicily. Extended bombing raids against German towns are planned for the near future. And the battle in the Atlantic is still not over – even though the Krauts are very quiet there in the moment.

Churchill feels that this is a critical moment. His decisions will change the course of the world. He has to find a way to parry every move of the Germans or Russians. Suddenly he has an idea. Still dim but it is getting clearer and clearer.

Britain has to be ready to stop the Soviets in case Germany collapses. It also must have a plan to attack Germany immediately in case Russia quits the alliance. Attacking Italy does not thread the Germans. And the invasion of France is too difficult. The Krauts had three years to fortify the coast. But why not attack the Germans where they are weak?

What if the troops who are now waiting in Northern Africa were redirected to the Black Sea? If they attack Bulgaria instead of Italy? Bulgaria would not try to resist. They would be happy to leave the axis and be protected against the Soviets. Romania would follow as well. The German eastern front would collapse and the British and US troops could march north to take Hungary and Poland. Controlling the Romanian oil and attacking Germany from two sides would bring the Allies in a position where they can end the war without the support of the Russians.

But is this feasible? If Turkey can be argued in it then the British navy would control the sea. Of course there would be some trouble with the German air force. But Germany would be taken by surprise and before they know what is going on the Allies would control a big part of Bulgaria.

Churchill calls his staff and asks them about their opinions. In general, they agree, but they raise some pleas. What to do if the Turks will not cooperate? And how to convince the Americans? The Yanks would like to attack the Germans at there strongest point and then march straight to Berlin. Churchill shakes his head. So much power and no idea about strategy. But the Americans demand the leadership of the European operation, although it is the British who are fighting for years now and know the situation in Europe so well.

After the discussion there are three options:

1. Follow Churchill’s plans. Stop Husky and negotiate with Turkey! If they agree attack the German flank by landing at Bulgaria. However, this may stress the relation to America.
2. Like 1.. But also prepare a landing at Greece just in case the Turks will not cooperate. However, marching through Greece will be much harder.
3. Forget Churchill’s idea. Nor Turkey neither the US will agree. So go on as planned and execute Husky.

[Kraxis]

So now we are the Allies?

#2 seems the best... Husky is too easily halted.

[Kagemusha]

Aargh! This is coming more and more complicated. I would say number 1). But this is complitely biased answer towards Germans. Landing in the Bulgaria will lead in problems with the Soviets in the long run becouse they think Bulgaria is on their power circle.

[Franconicus]

Kagemusha,
Who said it would be easy to kill A.H. and end war?
Regarding the Soviets? Churchill surely expects trouble. Poland will cause trouble, because it is in the power circle of both. Churchill is not the kind of man who wants to avoid trouble. The only issue is trying to avoid trouble until Germany is done or not?

Kraxis,
Maybe I should have posted the ‘rules’ before.

The purpose of this story is to think about how Manstein could have ended the war. I know that I cannot rewrite history, but I want to find a possible or even likely scenario.

This is the agenda:
1) Find a way to kill A.H. and do it
2) Get control over Germany
3) Make the new strategic setup for the other nations
4) Go back on the battle field and fight the decisive battle
5) End

Although I have an agenda this does not mean that the story is already written. In fact I do not know exactly what the next steps are or if the story will really follow the agenda at all. And the end is completely open.

This is a kind of brain storm. So to proceed I need input, lots of input. Sometime I may ask for general information, sometimes I may give different options. The MONASTARY can provide the different views of people from a lot of different countries. This is what I need to avoid writing a ‘German’ story.

But without feedback, this story will soon end. Without kagemusha Hitler would still be alive! Thanks kage!!

I think as soon as the fighting starts again the story should stay at one side.

For those who want to jump on our little mind game here a short status:

Hitler is dead. The SS is neutralized. At the moment Manstein, Guderian and Rommel control the government. Zitadelle has been stopped. Italian government is controlled by the Germans. Stalin already decided to attack asap. Churchill was wondering if he should change the strategy. So far the result of the poll is ‘undecided’.

[Kagemusha]

Thanks for the kind words Franconicus. How i see this is that its essential for the survival of the Germany and whole East Europe to turn The Allies against eachother. Now that there is no more idealogigal war between Germany and the Western allies. We should try to pursuit peace negotiations with the Western allies. Maybe Finland could help, becouse they had an diplomatic contact to United States through the whole war provided by Sweden.
Btw i disagree on the Italian coup.I think the only way to open the Western eyes towards our cause is to show them that there might be even worse ruling parties, then German military.(Read communist coup)

[King Kurt]

Franconius - sorry there has been no input from me recently - too busy at work!!
My thoughts;

1) Stalin's sounds about right - I think that Zukov would be more aggressive, throw everything against the roumanians, attack every where, encourage all communist resistance groups across Europe to step up activities to keep the pot boiling.

2) Italy sounds right - I am sure that Mussolini still will have his date with a lamp post.

3) Churchill sounds wrong - I can't see him going for Bulgaria - the scar of the Dardenelles must still be on his mind. Even if the Turks agreed passage, assistance etc - not that likely I would say, memories of WW1, strong links with Germany etc - any invasion force going through the Dardenelles would be a sitting duck for air and sub attack. So I see the following as more likely.
Churchill likes the soft southern belly approach, so what about attacks on some of the following - Sardina, Corsica for air bases to cover the invasion of Southern France, Greece - Churchill was fascinated with it and surpressed the Communist revolt at the end of the war - again for airbases to cover an invasion of yugoslavia to link up with the partisans. Historical hindsight says that invading Scilly and Italy were, on the whole, a bit of a waste - very defensable ground all the way to Switzaland. It's only use is to take Italy out the war - and that effectively happened with Mussolini needing student's assistance as the Italian forces are obliviously falling apart. If i was Churchill, I would also order another, bigger, Dieppe style raid - (hopefully with all the lessons of the previous year remembered) to see what transpires. Churchill, I think, would still see the defeat of Germany as the main aim of their war effort. The memories of the last 4 years would not dissappear overnight - he would worry about the soviets - don't want to change Europe dominated by Germany to Europe dominated by russia - but the Soviets are still facing the vast majority of the German forces and the German mobile forces are required to respond to uprisings in Germany and the occupied territories as well as the inevietable Soviet attack (Churchill's intellegence would be very aware of that)
4) The unknown is the Americans. Mid 43 sees them worried about Japan - Guadacanal etc - and they need the Brits for all of that, if only for the bases of India and Austrailia. Also, as more emerges about the final solution, the Americans will want to bring Germany to book. Finally, they need a Europe which is in their sphere for trade - the European market is still the principle place for American goods, so I see them as keeping the pressure on through bombing and working with the Brits.

So - a few thoughts to keep the pot boiling. The problem Manstein has is that all over Europe everybody has millions of reasons to mistrust and hate the Germans, so the " Hitler was a bad man and we were only obeying orders, so let's be friends" approach is not going to work. 43 was the period of the war when the Allies "unconditional surrender" approach appears, so I see tough times ahead for Manstein.