O'Reilly: Dems are right, get out of Iraq now

[Husar]

5. Peace and quiet in Europe for at least 5 years, with little or no terrorist activity and very few violent protests.

6. The USA will cease to function as a Superpower, allowing China to assume a more dominant position in Asia and freeing most of Europe from the need to support/work with US policy.

7. The USA's budget will return to more balanced levels, domestic spending by the government will increase, American business will enjoy a period of prosperity -- though the defense industries will take a huge hit.

8. The trend toward Chavez-style socialism and the repudiation of IMF/World Bank efforts in South America will increase.

These three sound good to me.

[Tribesman]

Really iraq is just a bunch of rival religions and parties who are participating in the election cause they need a leading force, of course all of this (grudging) cooperation would fall apart if the glue that holds it together (US, Brits) were to leave. what the sunnis of the area want is for this to happen,, a complete collapse into militantism, for it is only in violent turmoil that they can undo the vastly greater majority and yet peacful shi'ah. if we get out now, when there are fewer and fewer insugents alive, there will be nothing left but the french blaming us for pulling out when they called for it and what was once iraq will become a few small nations at each others throats with bombs going off everywhere.

Could someone translate this statement for me please ?

[Adrian II]

Could someone translate this statement for me please ?

Something about the French, I believe. Olympic Games maybe?

[master of the puppets]

Could someone translate this statement for me please ?

i'm saying if the US pulls out now the country will implode and people will blame us cause we pulled out...upon there wishes.

[Navaros]

The people in Iraq are not crazy. They just have conviction strong enough to fight to the death, and do anything, to protect their faith from infidel institutions like democracy.

He is right that the USA soldiers are never going to be able to dull the fires in their hearts, hence they should pull out now because it's only going to keep getting worse and worse.

[Reenk Roink]

I could care less how many people with guns and bombs on both sides get killed. I just worry for the innocent men, women, and children who just want to live their lives...

[Kaiser of Arabia]

The people in Iraq are not crazy. They just have conviction strong enough to fight to the death, and do anything, to protect their faith from infidel institutions like democracy.

He is right that the USA soldiers are never going to be able to dull the fires in their hearts, hence they should pull out now because it's only going to keep getting worse and worse.

Err....

[Brenus]

I am afraid it isn’t so simple. You have to keep you face. The Russian did that very well in Afghanistan, parades, flowers and small flags, and immediately after the last tank, they blocked the bridge. The USA in Vietnam was less successful, even if the US didn’t lost the war, of course. Nor the Russians did, by the way… It is still time for the retreat in dignity (soviet option). I just hope that this time, all the decorum felt and a real politic will be engaged to resolve the mess done by this stupid and ill-prepared invasion.
Now, solutions: how tempting for a French, to give lessons…
Negotiate with the local terrorists. Well, difficult to swallow, but inevitable. Give back to the Iraqis the spoils of the war. Anyway, the future Iraqi Government will annulated all the contracts which were given to the US companies. Better to do like if you want to do it.
Stop importing mercenaries called security guards, employ locals. Create local markets, develop the schools, and stop torturing people and bombing wedding party. Stop using shell with phosphorus, even if it isn’t illegal, it bad for the image.
Put police instead of army. Not immediately, but RESOLVE things.
Stop to thing “we have the bigger guns so we will win”. Ho Chi Minh told us, French and American, was is a Revolutionary War. It is when a leader or a group of person are willing to loose as much people it needs to discourage the attackers.

[Tribesman]

As President itsyour call Tribesman.
Thanks Gawain .
As your President I am now pleased to inform you that further progress has been made , i know you were all slightly worried when we announced that the number of Iraqi battalions capable of operating by themselves had dropped from 3 to 1 , in keeping with our steady program of advancement I can now announce that the number has increased from 1 to zero

So pick your poison. Dont just give us a list of possibilties . Tell us what you would do. And how you would implement it.

Oh thats simple , I want at least 500,000 troops in there now , I want all mercenaries out of there now , I want all non-specialst foriegn civilian contractors out of there now . Seal the borders , forcibly disarm the Pershmerga the Mahdi and Al-Badr , give the interior minisrty to the Turkomen and the Defense ministry to the Christians . The Kurds can get stuffed , they ain't getting their own state . The Iranians and Israelis can bugger off , any further interference will lead to a maritime blockade and withdrawel of all aid respectively .
And Turkey better get all its troops and agents back to its side of the border pronto , they are not America so they had better learn to hunt terrorists on their own territory right .
Now its time to go begging to the UN and trying to bribe all the nations to supply the troops and finance the operations , its gonna be a long haul having the whole country in lockdown for decades until the locals are thouroughly sick of the killing , lets give it say....50 years for a start .
Oh did I mention , learn to use the bus 'cos your gas prices are going through the roof , but then again sell the car as the massive tax hike means you cannot afford a car anyhow , but on a plus side you won't need a car as you is getting drafted , as there is no way that other countries are going to voluntarily supply the required amount of casualties ..errr..statistics...err ....heroes , yes thats it , gool ol' patrioric heroes .
I nearly forgot , accountants , proper ones this time , I ain't having billions of your tax dollars disappearing in the back of pick up trucks like last time . I did mention that I had used my special veto to overturn the block on further reconstruction funding didn't I .
On a brighter note I am hoping that the increased security will lead to an increase in the flow of Iraqi oil revenue to assist with the funding , we should soon be able to get back to the levels of a decade ago ,well maybe 5 years ago ,..possibly last years levels .....damn how about we try for the levels six months ago , OK OK , we will try to see if we can manage to pump almost as much as we did last month, but no promises right , you must understand , this presidenting isn't an easy job , if it was it could be left to any old halfwit like Bush .

[Tribesman]

i'm saying if the US pulls out now the country will implode and people will blame us cause we pulled out...upon there wishes.
Ah I see , so the situation is buggered , the glue that is holding it together , as you put it , is also ripping it apart .
Oh and in case you didn't notice , those peoples who you are saying are wishing for you to get out , are actually the people who said don't go there in the first place.
So get it right will you .If people say , pehaps you shouldn't have gone there , then don't try and blame them when you finally realise that perhaps you shouldn't have gone .


Nope. I'm still waiting. Give me a link if you have been down this road. I know I have asked you plenty of times what your solution was.

Well Divinus , this part should have told you enough ...
Tribesman: What is your answer to the Iraq war? What is your plan?
Ah , for that you will have to go back to find "President Tribesmans" inaugral address .
Though that won't work now , the situation is too far gone and there is no way the US population would swallow it , or be able to afford it .

As I said its too far gone , is there any viable solution anymore ?
I don't think so .
I will see if I can find the old post , but you know how much trouble it is to trawl through all the old backroom posts .
Oh, until then... like the idea of transfering peace keeping to a joint UN-Iraqi force.
That was one of the first parts , though not the joint Iraqi bit until a long way down the road .
And.....*Maybe* splitting up Iraq along ethnic lines would be a good thing.

That was an absolute no-no , no bloody way , stop right there , forget it , issue .
And there is a very very good reason for that .


It's easy to sit and point out problems. The hard part is coming up with solutions. And when you do come up with a solution, good luck on having enough people agree on it and good luck seeing it through to the end because the armchair quarterbacks will knock it a year in.

Yeah , thats funny , because if I recall correctly thats almost exactly the same post as led to me writing it in the first place , all this "you only moan about Iraq" , "you are always negative about iraq" , "whats your solution then"
.....and I think it got two replies , both just wanting further clarification on some minor points .
No responses at all from the gung-ho patriotic crowd

[Divinus Arma]

Yeah , thats funny , because if I recall correctly thats almost exactly the same post as led to me writing it in the first place

Sorry, a bit of a language barrier here. Led you to write what in the first place?

, all this "you only moan about Iraq" , "you are always negative about iraq" , "whats your solution then"
.....and I think it got two replies , both just wanting further clarification on some minor points .
No responses at all from the gung-ho patriotic crowd [/QUOTE]


What only got two replies?


I am genuinely interested. I think there is a misconception amongst folks out there that conservatives refuse to listen to other points. The problem is that there are no viable alternative solutions. I really would like to hear some, and that is why I have repeatedly asked you. It really is easy to point out problems, especially after a decision has been made. But pointing out problems are not going to help the situation. And this is exactly what the Democratic Party faces. They have become the pack of complainers and the Democratic leadership only leads at all by complaining the loudest. But we are not getting solutions from them. The ones who are offering solutions end up getting shouted down because those solutions mirror Republican Solutions. I give Hillary and Lieberman as examples.

Oersonally, I'm tired of hearing the complaints. There not even worth rguing anymore. The question is: What do you plan on doing to fix it?

[Tribesman]

Sorry, a bit of a language barrier here. Led you to write what in the first place?

President Tribesmans inaugral address .
What only got two replies?

See above

I am genuinely interested.
Hey , I will try and find the original post , but as I said it won't work , the will isn't there anymore , or the manpower , or the money .

The problem is that there are no viable alternative solutions.
Yep , you have ;
Pull out now ....bad move .
More of the same ....bad move .
completely new approach....OK but who is going to step into the abyss and who is going to pay for it ...and more importantly what are they hoping will be the end result ? three states , one state , democracy , stable dictatorship (apart from those that the dictator doesn't like) , long term standoff , containment ?

Oersonally, I'm tired of hearing the complaints.
Yep and I am tired of hearing how everything is going OK , and it isn't really that bad , or that its all the fault of the French , or people still posting "facts" that have been shown to be lies months or even years ago (I mean seriously someone even posted an article to back up a long disproven claim , without even realising that the article had a big write up on it saying that it had been shown to be Bull ).

Heres a thought , how about deploying some bhuddist peacekeeping forces , they should be fairly neutral .

[Gawain of Orkeny]

The people in Iraq are not crazy. They just have conviction strong enough to fight to the death, and do anything, to protect their faith from infidel institutions like democracy.

Pssst. Their fighting over who has the right version of Islam. You remember when the christians went through this stage. How many wars were fouhjt between Protestant and Catholic. America is caught in the middle. This is why although I feel the invasion was justified I oppossed it from the start.

completely new approach....OK but who is going to step into the abyss and who is going to pay for it ...and more importantly what are they hoping will be the end result ? three states , one state , democracy , stable dictatorship (apart from those that the dictator doesn't like) , long term standoff , containment ?

As President itsyour call Tribesman. So pick your poison. Dont just give us a list of possibilties . Tell us what you would do. And how you would implement it.

Stop using your favorite tactic. That being beating around the Bush.

[Adrian II]

The problem is that there are no viable alternative solutions.

Well, I can try. Here goes nothing.



A new strategy is impossible without a proper assessment of what went wrong. The critical failure in the Iraqi situation is the security vacuum that the United States created on April 9, 2003. The intervention created a failed state, a state apparatus that has all the formal trappings, but none of the meat and bones of a democracy. This is the real issue.

The ethnic strife, the growing impact of the insurgency and the foreign meddling in Iraqi affairs are mere symptoms of this lack of a credible, workable and respectable Iraqi state. What common sense dictates and what all polls, elections and media reports confirm is that Iraqi democracy can not grow under a state that can not provide or guarantee basic physical and economic security, freedom of movement, jobs, adequate medical care, gasoline, electricity, education, clean water, sanitation.

For this reason Iraqi’s turn to primitive patronage systems and organised crime, to tribal and religous affiliations, and to leadership by strongmen who promise to provide for their own etnic, religious or local group. This rot has progressed to the point where government minister are operating their own militias and deaths quads. The outcome of this is either an extremely violent split-up or an extremely violent new dictatorship under a second ‘Saddam’ (only this time clad in Shi’ite garb).

The real solution would to invest massively in the creation of a credible, workable and respectable Iraqi state. No more talk of ‘exit strategies’ – instead concentrate on ‘reconstruction strategies’. This will require an internationalisation of the foreign military presence (under UN auspices) to demonstrate to Iraq and its neighbours that this is no longer a uniquely American effort. It will require a doubling or tripling of troops on the ground. It will require a huge investment in the bulding of institutions and the training of staff for those institutions, which will take years and years . It will require a large degree of regional and local autonomy in most areas of government, but a centralised, internationally supervised distribution of Iraq’s oil wealth to make sure that oil revenues do not become a lever for those forces that would want to split up the country. It will require an Iraqi’s-first policy in the economy, where foreign companies only fulfill the tasks that can not be accomplished by Iraqi firms, and on condition that they employ and train Iraqi’s to eventually take over from foreign workers.

Is this going to happen? No. The U.S. is not going to give up military and political control of the situation, double or triple its troops on the ground, cancel contracts of its own companies, or take the trouble of training and equipping entire ministries over the course of the next ten to twenty-five years. Other countries will not be prepared massively invest or send troops under American supervision.

Hence my next-best-solution which I proposed before: a controlled split-up of the country in a Kurdish, a Sunnite and a Shi’ite rump-state, during and after which the U.S. acts as a guarantor that (1) no foreign meddling or intervention in either of the three parts shall take place, and (2) distribution of the country’s oil revenues shall be run and administered by an international body and enforced by American arms.

I am well aware of the risks this entails, but it is preferable to an early exit resulting in an uncontrolled split-up.

[Xiahou]

Hence my next-best-solution which I proposed before: a controlled split-up of the country in a Kurdish, a Sunnite and a Shi’ite rump-state, during and after which the U.S. acts as a guarantor that (1) no foreign meddling or intervention in either of the three parts shall take place, and (2) distribution of the country’s oil revenues shall be run and administered by an international body and enforced by American arms.

Trouble there is that Turkey would literally be up in arms if you wanted to create an independant Kurdish state, and the Sunnis would be very unlikely to give up territorial claim to all of the oil wealth based on an assurance that it'll be split up fair. Then there's the fact that most Iraqis want a unified country not 3 independant states.

A new strategy is impossible without a proper assessment of what went wrong. The critical failure in the Iraqi situation is the security vacuum that the United States created on April 9, 2003. The intervention created a failed state, a state apparatus that has all the formal trappings, but none of the meat and bones of a democracy. This is the real issue.

It's still my belief that the biggest mistake made early on was the outright disolution of the Iraqi armed forces in their entirety. Even if we had just disarmed them, and coralled them on their bases until we could sort them out, it wouldve been an improvement, imo. When you take 10 of thousands of soldiers and tell them 1) You're not needed anymore- beat it and 2) You're not getting a paycheck to feed your families with anymore- tough luck; you're asking for problems. I think these soldiers made for easy recruiting for insurgent groups that promised them some action and some cash.

At this late stage, I think doubling or tripling troop levels would do nothing but make more targets, increase casualties and put an even bigger foreign face on the situation. What we need to continue doing is training up competent Iraqi forces and moving increasingly into the background as a supporting role when they need our combat expertise. Unless we're going to have a soldier following around every Iraqi man, woman, and child, I dont think numbers is going to solve this.

[Ice]

i'm saying if the US pulls out now the country will implode and people will blame us cause we pulled out...upon there wishes.

Indeed.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

These three sound good to me.

I didn't think everyone would be against all of the potentialities, nor that they would be universally bad.

On the other hand, labeling 5-8 inclusive as "three" speaks poorly for your skill with mathematics.

Can I borrow $30 from you?

[Divinus Arma]

I like the idea of transfering peace keeping to a joint UN-Iraqi force. It would seem like a fresh start and a positive transition.

What's worse then this crackpot mayor is the recent bombing of the shia mosque and the shia retaliation on sunnis mosques. That's bad juju for sure!

*Maybe* splitting up Iraq along ethnic lines would be a good thing. It's borders were established arbitrarily anyhow. I don't know enough about the consequences though to comment further. I know that Iranian influence in the Shia region would grow, Turkey would be pissed because of kurdish steps towards an Independant Kurdistan, and that the Sunni regions would grow closer to Syria, which is Sunni and Ba'ath...

O'reilly is a hothead anyway. He sometimes makes good points, but mostly he's just into himself.

[Tribesman]

What's worse then this crackpot mayor
Crackpot mayor , or crackpot troops ?
If you want to sniff out hidden stuff bring the dog , if you want to frighten prisoners bring the dog , if you want to visit the mayor in his office , leave the mutt outside .

I like the idea of transfering peace keeping to a joint UN-Iraqi force. It would seem like a fresh start and a positive transition.

Did you find President Tribesmans plan Divinus
A couple of problems , how are you going to get enough countries to stump up the neccasary numbers of troops/police .
Joint Iraqi ..which sort of Iraqi , after yesterdays events what are the possibilities of a unified Iraqi force working effectively , with or without the UN ?
A transition , to what ?

*Maybe* splitting up Iraq along ethnic lines would be a good thing.
Maybe , but then you have to handle massive population transfers , complete infrastructure reworking and the real possibility of 3 warring nations that are also in a state of civil war themselves and the spreading and escalation of the problem to cover the whole region .
Bleak prospects whichever way you look at it

[Divinus Arma]

Did you find President Tribesmans plan Divinus

Nope. I'm still waiting. Give me a link if you have been down this road. I know I have asked you plenty of times what your solution was.

I asked you here.

And here.

And here.


It's easy to sit and point out problems. The hard part is coming up with solutions. And when you do come up with a solution, good luck on having enough people agree on it and good luck seeing it through to the end because the armchair quarterbacks will knock it a year in.

[edit: language] Re-edit:What Language? Neverind. This is hardly worth it.

So, once again. Tribesman, what is your solution?