What now for Taiwan and China?

[King Edward]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/4753974.stm

So President Chen is going to dissolve the unification council. That is going to anger Beijing no end! How is this going to develope?

[Duke Malcolm]

China will invade Taiwan; The US will declare war against China and send an Expeditionary Force to the Orient; The US' allies (Britain, Japan, Australia, et al.) will join (reluctantly) with the US; India shall join on the British side; Russia and North Korea will join Cathay; A protracted war shall occur in which Britain gets Hong Kong back, and China shall be broken up into little bits. Taiwan shall remain a US protectorate for some time. India will get bits of China; the Russian Federation will be broken up. And in 100 years time we will all look back and laugh at the hundreds of millions of dead, put differences behind us, and join under the nice red flag of the People's Republic of America...

[AquaLurker]

Probably some political demostrators clashes in Taiwan between the ruling party and KMT.

[Samurai Waki]

Its not my war, nor should it be anyone elses besides China and Tawain.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

China CAN'T invade Taiwan, it'd have to do it about 10,000 men at a time. Not possible. It needs a much larger naval transport capacity.

Good move by Taiwan, imho.

[BDC]

Lots of explosions, lots of radioactive fallout, lots of dead people.

Even if China gets Taiwan, it will be a burned out bombsite.

[Blodrast]

errr...how about... nothing ? as in, nothing will happen. maybe a lot of waves, and not much more... wars don't just pop up like that all the time - not when the big boys are involved. So even if China does take a stab at Taiwan, I don't think anything will happen other than a lot of international indignation, protests, and more of the same ;)

[BigTex]

I'm singing in the radioactive fallout
Just singing in the radioactive fallout
What a glorious feeling
I'm happy again
I'm laughing at clouds
So dark up above
The sun's in my heart
And I'm ready for love

Let the radioactive clouds chase
Everyone from the place
Come on with the radioactive fallout
I've a smile on my face
I'll walk down the lane
With a happy refrain
Singing, singing in the radioactive fallout




I'm singing in the radioactive fallout
Just singing in the radioactive fallout
What a glorious feeling
I'm happy again
I walk down the lane
With a happy refrain
I'm singing, singing in the radioactive fallout
singing in the radioactive fallout

[Proletariat]

Its not my war, nor should it be anyone elses besides China and Tawain.

It pretty much is America's war. If we welch on our end of the bargain with Tawain, than Japan and S. Korea will want their own nukes to defend themselves since the US will show it really doesn't mean it when it says it's pacific allies are important or worth defending.

[Samurai Waki]

EDIT: Just Being Stubborn.

[Avicenna]

The people of Taiwan will finally see Chen Sui-Bian's true colours: a liar who does not keep the promise he made during his campaign. Probably means that he cheated as well, getting that sympathy vote. What kind of useless sniper would shoot a bullet across him grazing the chest instead of into his chest? and why did the size of his wound change a short while later?

[Spino]

Be sensible now, China nuking Taiwan would pretty much defeat the purpose of invading it in the first place. Taiwan is a profitable little island with loads of well educated professionals and lots of impressive high tech, revenue generating industries, etc. China desperately wants to 'appropriate' another fat cash cow like Hong Kong or Macau and Taiwan is the prize bull of the Sino county fair. Lucky for Taiwan that a considerable span of water seperates them from the mainland. Anyway it's not as if the U.S. or Japan is actually threatening to conquer Taiwan so China is the only one playing the part of a bully with their insistence on bringing Taiwan 'back into the fold'. Razing Taiwan and reducing it to a pile of smoldering radioactive ash would be the ultimate act of idiocy. And China nuking Japan or the U.S. means millions of dead, China becoming ostracized and isolated by the world and quickly returning to a bronze or stone age existence in a matter of weeks....

If China tried to invade Taiwan using conventional forces its military would experience the quickest, most devastating losses in that country's history. China suffered massive losses in Korea to an outnumbered opponent whose armed forces weren't that technologically ahead of them in terms of equipment. Now imagine their losses in an age where cruise missiles, GPS bombs, fuel air explosives, thermobaric devices, cluster bombs, etc. are all brought to bear on China's poorly trained armed forces. Many Chinese hard liners know this which is why they constantly rattle the nuclear saber, it's the only card they have to play.

Here's to China's old guard communists dying of stomach cancer....

[AquaLurker]

It will just be another round of "Words War" and "Missile tests" from both side, then they will sit down, and talk again.

[Kommodus]

Even if there were war between China and the US over Taiwan (which is highly unlikely), I doubt the US would actually invade China with ground forces. The point would be to defend Taiwan from invasion, not to conquer China. Thus the US and allies would only have to destroy China's navy and air force, making any invasion impossible. I'm sure there would be plenty of airstrikes against the Chinese mainland, but still no ground invasion.

Once that phase of the conflict ended, things would wind down to a sort of cold war, with both sides staring at each other across the water and conducting ongoing small-scale operations. China would not concede defeat, so there's no telling how long this might last. It would probably be sort of like the Korean war - no official end, but a de facto permanent ceasefire.

All this would be very bad for all parties involved, and for the global economy. As long as everyone recognizes this, war is a very unlikely possibility.

[Kagemusha]

I completely agree with you Kommodus.Lets just hope this doesnt go to it.

[BigTex]

You guys realize that war with China would mean draft in United states.And to be honest do you think drafted US troops would be any superior to conscripted Chinese troops?Also the in the US arsenal do you guys believe that the basic equipment for those drafted US troops would be anywhere near advanced to that equipment that is available to active troops in US service.I think that this will be once again more talk less action.And im glad becouse of that.

Main difference would be the tactics. With China having a 2.5 million man army I seriously doubt their infantry tactics have evolved much from Korea. And considering how much better weapons have gotten it could turn into a turkey shoot.

As for China sending off ICBM's to the US, at least we'll get to see if those ICBM interceptor missile's work on a real weapon. Or if the goverment just used the money for another bridge in Alaska.

[BDC]

I'm sure America could pay for its conscripted soldiers to have much better training and equipment than China ever could. Plus I imagine American soldiers would be far more motivated, and supported by a much better command and supply structure.

[Kagemusha]

I'm sure America could pay for its conscripted soldiers to have much better training and equipment than China ever could. Plus I imagine American soldiers would be far more motivated, and supported by a much better command and supply structure.

Im not saying that.Think it like this.If you were drafted now.You would shipped in war on wartime after aprox two months training time. Normal armies that use conscription train their citicen soldiers for 6-18 months normally.And continue training those troops after that.You just dont have much time to learn that much in that time.So it would be bootcamp and deployment after that.

[Papewaio]

What is the current Industrial output of China vs the rest of the players.

And what is it projected to be in 20 years time?

For those who are historians of WWI and II... the winner tends to have the most industrial might...

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

More likely we sink their navy, destroy their air force, starve their economy.

We won't land a boot in China, methinks. Mehopes we aren't that dumb.

[Proletariat]

...the winner tends to have the most industrial might...

Nuclear might helps too.

[Papewaio]

And it is a function of industrial might...

[Papewaio]

Which is why they need to be quashed quickly.

Which means if China doesn't do anything stupid it will be well on the way to upsurping USA's industrial powerbase.

So who gains from rattling sabers in China vs Taiwan. The Chinese and Taiwanese governments as they can blame others for internal problems.

But neither government would gain from an actual war. China could quite possibly find not only being on the losing end but it could set off an internal fracturing of the country. Taiwan would have at least 700 missile craters doted along the west coast and losing a chunk of its industrial capacity.

As for the chinese and taiwanese business men they would lose lots of money... particularly all the taiwanese owned factories in china...

[Papewaio]

Not quite your post showed why others may have an interest in sparking a war there:

Which is why they need to be quashed quickly.

If they are not belligerent there is no need to squash them. However this could mean going back to the dual superpower scenario. It is a bit of a longshot, but some might feel that a war now will save a lot more in the future...

[Redleg]

Which means if China doesn't do anything stupid it will be well on the way to upsurping USA's industrial powerbase.

Yep, but unless something in thier government gives a little more, soon the cost benefit of cheap labor will be exhausated for new investment.

So who gains from rattling sabers in China vs Taiwan. The Chinese and Taiwanese governments as they can blame others for internal problems.

Correct - I need all my fingers and toes to count how many times the two have rattled the sabers in the last 10 years. Seems to me to be the opening for a new round of talks that costs the United States something to ease the rattlings between the two.

But neither government would gain from an actual war. China could quite possibly find not only being on the losing end but it could set off an internal fracturing of the country. Taiwan would have at least 700 missile craters doted along the west coast and losing a chunk of its industrial capacity.

Hince I tend to agree the sabre rattling is about something else.

[Avicenna]

Which is why they need to be quashed quickly.

With that attitude, nobody will support America: just publicly demonstrates to those who don't know what America thinks. I'm sure Chinese Americans wouldn't like this either: they all have relatives in China. Then others, like European Americans who have European relations will see that America will do this to the EU, and they won't help and eventually if this is the attitude America takes it will lose a lot of foreign and American support.

[Watchman]

Can the megalomania. The world doesn't work that simply.

[Avicenna]

We wouldn't need foreign support if the people in charge would step up to the plate and assert control. Less spending on welfare crap, more spending on military. Less catering to whiny European countries who have long since proven their ingrate nature (what Marshal plan?), and more open power grabbing. I'm talking Empire, dammit. This country should be the epitome of a Republic on the inside, at the expense of everyone on the outside. If the government could prove to the people that what's good for the country is good for everyone in the country (instead of catering only to a select few within the country) then I think the American people could get behind it.

Oh, I'm sure that the other world powers can prevent any American dictatorship. Just think about what happened to Germany before.