What now for Taiwan and China?

[King Edward]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/4753974.stm

So President Chen is going to dissolve the unification council. That is going to anger Beijing no end! How is this going to develope?

[Duke Malcolm]

China will invade Taiwan; The US will declare war against China and send an Expeditionary Force to the Orient; The US' allies (Britain, Japan, Australia, et al.) will join (reluctantly) with the US; India shall join on the British side; Russia and North Korea will join Cathay; A protracted war shall occur in which Britain gets Hong Kong back, and China shall be broken up into little bits. Taiwan shall remain a US protectorate for some time. India will get bits of China; the Russian Federation will be broken up. And in 100 years time we will all look back and laugh at the hundreds of millions of dead, put differences behind us, and join under the nice red flag of the People's Republic of America...

[AquaLurker]

Probably some political demostrators clashes in Taiwan between the ruling party and KMT.

[Samurai Waki]

Its not my war, nor should it be anyone elses besides China and Tawain.

[Kaiser of Arabia]

China CAN'T invade Taiwan, it'd have to do it about 10,000 men at a time. Not possible. It needs a much larger naval transport capacity.

Good move by Taiwan, imho.

[BDC]

Lots of explosions, lots of radioactive fallout, lots of dead people.

Even if China gets Taiwan, it will be a burned out bombsite.

[Blodrast]

errr...how about... nothing ? as in, nothing will happen. maybe a lot of waves, and not much more... wars don't just pop up like that all the time - not when the big boys are involved. So even if China does take a stab at Taiwan, I don't think anything will happen other than a lot of international indignation, protests, and more of the same ;)

[BigTex]

I'm singing in the radioactive fallout
Just singing in the radioactive fallout
What a glorious feeling
I'm happy again
I'm laughing at clouds
So dark up above
The sun's in my heart
And I'm ready for love

Let the radioactive clouds chase
Everyone from the place
Come on with the radioactive fallout
I've a smile on my face
I'll walk down the lane
With a happy refrain
Singing, singing in the radioactive fallout




I'm singing in the radioactive fallout
Just singing in the radioactive fallout
What a glorious feeling
I'm happy again
I walk down the lane
With a happy refrain
I'm singing, singing in the radioactive fallout
singing in the radioactive fallout

[Proletariat]

Its not my war, nor should it be anyone elses besides China and Tawain.

It pretty much is America's war. If we welch on our end of the bargain with Tawain, than Japan and S. Korea will want their own nukes to defend themselves since the US will show it really doesn't mean it when it says it's pacific allies are important or worth defending.

[Samurai Waki]

EDIT: Just Being Stubborn.

[Spino]

Be sensible now, China nuking Taiwan would pretty much defeat the purpose of invading it in the first place. Taiwan is a profitable little island with loads of well educated professionals and lots of impressive high tech, revenue generating industries, etc. China desperately wants to 'appropriate' another fat cash cow like Hong Kong or Macau and Taiwan is the prize bull of the Sino county fair. Lucky for Taiwan that a considerable span of water seperates them from the mainland. Anyway it's not as if the U.S. or Japan is actually threatening to conquer Taiwan so China is the only one playing the part of a bully with their insistence on bringing Taiwan 'back into the fold'. Razing Taiwan and reducing it to a pile of smoldering radioactive ash would be the ultimate act of idiocy. And China nuking Japan or the U.S. means millions of dead, China becoming ostracized and isolated by the world and quickly returning to a bronze or stone age existence in a matter of weeks....

If China tried to invade Taiwan using conventional forces its military would experience the quickest, most devastating losses in that country's history. China suffered massive losses in Korea to an outnumbered opponent whose armed forces weren't that technologically ahead of them in terms of equipment. Now imagine their losses in an age where cruise missiles, GPS bombs, fuel air explosives, thermobaric devices, cluster bombs, etc. are all brought to bear on China's poorly trained armed forces. Many Chinese hard liners know this which is why they constantly rattle the nuclear saber, it's the only card they have to play.

Here's to China's old guard communists dying of stomach cancer....

[AquaLurker]

It will just be another round of "Words War" and "Missile tests" from both side, then they will sit down, and talk again.

[Kommodus]

Taiwan will keep being as independent as it wants to be; China will keep pretending that it's in charge. The ability of China's government to deny the facts on the ground while staring right at them is mind-boggling.

[King Edward]

I'd hardly say this potential conflict had just 'popped up' its been going on since the 50's but since the KMT lost power Chen really is pushing china hard. Mind you i'd be a bit nervey if i knew a superpower had 7000 ballistic missiles pointed at me. Thats why I think the american sold them parts of the Aegis technology 18 months ago.

Would the public really support the US in another ground deployment of troops? not sure the UK public would....

[Watchman]

By what I know of the respective PRC and Taiwanese naval and air assets, nevermind the US ones in the region, Beijing can forget amphibious assault right off the bat. They just plain don't have the hardware to get anything floating even as far as the Taiwanese coastline without being buried under a torrent of anti-ship missiles.

[Mount Suribachi]

not sure the UK public would....

I would. I'm sick to the back teeth of the EU sucking up to China all in the name of business. Its "screw the human rights abuses and aggressive militaristic chinese diplomacy, let me at the ££$$$£££". And it makes me mad. Seeing British troops on the street holding back protestors when the chinese Pres came to britain a few years ago, lest he see them made my blood boil

In the past 12 months China have publicly threatened to attack Japan, invade Taiwan and start a nuclear war with America. Its about time someone stood up to the Bully Boy.

Now, the truth is, between Afghanistan, Iraq and the simmering tensions in the Falklands, there's not much Britain can actually do other than allow the US to use Diego Garcia as a base. But if I was Bush, I would make sure to keep a carrier battle group or two in the area for the time being

[Kagemusha]

You guys realize that war with China would mean draft in United states.And to be honest do you think drafted US troops would be any superior to conscripted Chinese troops?Also the in the US arsenal do you guys believe that the basic equipment for those drafted US troops would be anywhere near advanced to that equipment that is available to active troops in US service.I think that this will be once again more talk less action.And im glad becouse of that.

[Kagemusha]

With our Abrams tanks and F/A-22 jets, half the job is done already. The last 15 years have proven that no conventional army can stand up to the USA. The only possible problem china could pose is occupation. And we would not be invading to conquer, simply invading to cripple.

Yep.But you have little problem currently.Your well armed spearhead Divisions are already deployed everywhere around the globe.Im not on the Chinas side anyway on this but if you want war with them you better start practicing how to use M-16.You can always Bomb China and destroy their infrastructure but thats about that and i guess China is pretty well aware of that fact too.But if you want go to land war against chinese army by occypying China.I wish you good luck my friend.

[Beirut]

Russia to the North, India to the West, Taiwan, South Korea, and the US to the East, hundreds of enemy sea & airbases and untouchable lines of communication surrounding it, and a billion people itching for freedom on the inside.

China is in a fragile position.

[Watchman]

It's also starving for energy. Them think-tanks and such that now play with these scenarios apparently theoretize a possibility of eventual war between Chian and the US - over control of oil tranfer routes, such as the Central Asian pipelines and particularly those SE Asian shipping lanes that run through, whatwasit, the Malage Straits.

In any case as of now it has absolutely no way of winning any such conflict (at least militarily; the necessities of politics may naturally be an entirely different thing). Just about the best it could manage would be to simply grimly hang on and absorb the dreadful beating its previous-generation military would take until the US plain runs out of ammunition and money to keep going. Given that a major embargo, information warfare and propaganda campaign and other such modern niceties would also be the order of the day, the populace are a tad restless to begin with, and the army ...getting depleted pretty rapidly, avoiding a total internal collapse long enough should be a bit tricky.

Whatever else the old fogeys in Beijing might be, I don't think it includes "criminally stupid". They can no doubt recognize a blatantly losing proposition like anyone else.

[Leet Eriksson]

You guys set up a countdown calender to the year 2050.. thats when half the world is one peoples republic and the rest are administrative regions being directly commanded from Beijing.





For some reason japan is a nuclear populated zone..

[Don Corleone]

Talk about paranoid fantasies, Faisal. I really hope that was a joke. Let me ask you this... the Western World will allow PRC to overrun India, Indochina, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia and a host of other countries, yet somehow, they're going to stop at Iran's borders? And I love the notch cut out for Pakistan (and Burma?) Tell me the truth, where did you get that map?

[Leet Eriksson]

Talk about paranoid fantasies, Faisal. I really hope that was a joke. Let me ask you this... the Western World will allow PRC to overrun India, Indochina, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia and a host of other countries, yet somehow, they're going to stop at Iran's borders? And I love the notch cut out for Pakistan (and Burma?) Tell me the truth, where did you get that map?

I wasn't serious about my previous post

I got it from some forums, i forgot where, but it was pretty funny so i saved it on the HDD.

From what i understood, pakistan, khazakstan, "korean union" and burma are the "good guys" so they let them be vassals.

the red areas are conquered territory, the rest they ain't interested in.

I think the guy who posted this took it from some ultra nationalist chinese website.

[Kagemusha]

Yet another reason to be against the Iraq War. Big Surprise.

How big is the PLA? 2.5 Million? How big was Saddam's army the first time around? Over 1 Million? The first Gulf War lasted about a month. We were smashing the army, and didn't really give a damn about insurgency. I imagine the case would be true in a conventional war with China as well. Smash the army, lay waste to the country-side, peasants with rifles be damned since we're leaving when the business is done. Catch my drift?

Sorry Cube if im getting on your nerves but it seems it doesnt matter anyway what i say to you forget about it.Go invade China.Im sure when Peking sees US Marine divisions on their cost making ambhibious assault they wont launch their Nukes to US.

[Kommodus]

Even if there were war between China and the US over Taiwan (which is highly unlikely), I doubt the US would actually invade China with ground forces. The point would be to defend Taiwan from invasion, not to conquer China. Thus the US and allies would only have to destroy China's navy and air force, making any invasion impossible. I'm sure there would be plenty of airstrikes against the Chinese mainland, but still no ground invasion.

Once that phase of the conflict ended, things would wind down to a sort of cold war, with both sides staring at each other across the water and conducting ongoing small-scale operations. China would not concede defeat, so there's no telling how long this might last. It would probably be sort of like the Korean war - no official end, but a de facto permanent ceasefire.

All this would be very bad for all parties involved, and for the global economy. As long as everyone recognizes this, war is a very unlikely possibility.

[Kagemusha]

I completely agree with you Kommodus.Lets just hope this doesnt go to it.

[BigTex]

You guys realize that war with China would mean draft in United states.And to be honest do you think drafted US troops would be any superior to conscripted Chinese troops?Also the in the US arsenal do you guys believe that the basic equipment for those drafted US troops would be anywhere near advanced to that equipment that is available to active troops in US service.I think that this will be once again more talk less action.And im glad becouse of that.

Main difference would be the tactics. With China having a 2.5 million man army I seriously doubt their infantry tactics have evolved much from Korea. And considering how much better weapons have gotten it could turn into a turkey shoot.

As for China sending off ICBM's to the US, at least we'll get to see if those ICBM interceptor missile's work on a real weapon. Or if the goverment just used the money for another bridge in Alaska.

[BDC]

I'm sure America could pay for its conscripted soldiers to have much better training and equipment than China ever could. Plus I imagine American soldiers would be far more motivated, and supported by a much better command and supply structure.

[Kagemusha]

I'm sure America could pay for its conscripted soldiers to have much better training and equipment than China ever could. Plus I imagine American soldiers would be far more motivated, and supported by a much better command and supply structure.

Im not saying that.Think it like this.If you were drafted now.You would shipped in war on wartime after aprox two months training time. Normal armies that use conscription train their citicen soldiers for 6-18 months normally.And continue training those troops after that.You just dont have much time to learn that much in that time.So it would be bootcamp and deployment after that.

[Papewaio]

What is the current Industrial output of China vs the rest of the players.

And what is it projected to be in 20 years time?

For those who are historians of WWI and II... the winner tends to have the most industrial might...