Even if playing realistically, the arrival of the Horde is not a total surprise. With the destruction of the Khwarazmians and their raids into India and other places before the Golden Horde arrived should have made many in the east wary. Not enough to mass huge armies, but neither should they have been asleep. There is precedent for the Khan to send emissaries to kingdoms in advance offering alliance/surrender. So I am aware of the Golden Horde, but I do not put a larger garrison there then I would any border territory.
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