This is my guess:

The Iraquian government will increase their forces (military, police and special task forces). They will cut civil rights (like free press ...). The task forces will be allowed to arrest and torture anyone they like to. There will be one dominant party which makes the president.

The US troops will reduce their presence and will be less visible. Of course they support the Iraqian government with equipment, training, intelligence amd air operations. This is enough to put any riots down but not to end the unrest. The unrest will force the president to keep troops in Iraq. Of course the US military will protect the US industry and their interests in Iraq.

The US industry, or at least a small part of it, will control the oil business. They rebuild the infrastructure. In return they get the licenses and do not have to pay taxes. Most of the gain that comes from the oil will stream to the bosses of some American oil companies. The rest will be spend for the special forces and the luxury of the ruling class.

All together the situation is much better than before the war, at least for the US and the other western countries. The common Iraqi people will not see much differences.

In a decade or so there will be a general riot. The US will leave the country and the civil war will begin.

I know that this sounds very pessimistic; of course I could be wrong and I honestly hope so. However this is my best guess.

What is your prevision?