Civil War in Iraq Imminent?

[Xiahou]

Yeah, he should have had an "accident" after the cease fire.

In related, al Sadr news: Iraq's Prime Minister Vows to Fight Ouster

Iraq's prime minister and his radical Shiite backers vowed Thursday to fight a bid by Sunni Arabs and Kurds to oust him, threatening to plunge the country into political turmoil, delay formation of a new government and undercut U.S. plans to begin withdrawing troops this year.

.....

A coalition of Sunni, Kurdish and secular parties formally asked the Shiite bloc Thursday to withdraw its nomination of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari for another term. The prime minister's adviser, Haider al-Ibadi, insisted the bloc would stick by its candidate.

Many Sunnis blame al-Jaafari for failing to rein in commandos of the Shiite-led Interior Ministry. And Kurds accuse al-Jaafari of dragging his heels on resolving their claims around the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

Al-Jaafari won the nomination by a single vote during an election Feb. 12 among Shiite lawmakers who won seats in the Dec. 15 parliamentary election. He defeated Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi in large part because of the support of radical, anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

The idea of a prime minister who owes his position to the young radical has alarmed not only Sunni Arabs and Kurds, but also several key figures in the Shiite alliance. Abdul-Mahdi was the candidate of Shiite Alliance leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who often is at odds with al-Sadr.

But the alliance does not know how to resolve the problem without risking a huge fight with al-Sadr, who is revered among impoverished Shiite militias and who has an armed militia allegedly behind many attacks against Sunni mosques last week.

Again, it's a real shame that this guy is still allowed to be a player when we had him totally beaten and let him off.

[Dâriûsh]

Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim at odds with Muqtada al-Sadr? Well duh, he most likely blames the death of his brother (this guy) on al-Sadr.

I also guess that al-Sadrs trip around the Arab world went unnoticed by the western media. He was in Saudi among others.

[mystic brew]

so are we saying that the situation is too chaotic to be civil war because the factions aren't coherent enough?

it's a pretty indistinct line... But i actually think that the definition we currently have, or an 'insurgency', is spot on at the moment. Technically full scale conventional battles are required for civil war.

Though Fallujah came closest to a conventional military engagement, i don't think it counts.

because the US can squash any force that stays in one place long enough, i think we can't say civil war until the coalition leaves.

Not that arguing over semantics makes the dead any more alive...