Poll: Iran vs US book

Be advised that this is a public poll: other users can see the choice(s) you selected.

Results 1 to 30 of 30

Thread: US vs Iran bookmaker

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hunting the Snark, a long way from Tipperary...
    Posts
    5,604

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    I would expect the Iranians to find a way out after establishing their 'leadership' credentials for the Muslim world. President Ahmadinejad is already on shaky ground with reformers, and the poor who voted for him are becoming disenchanted. He will need to turn inward soon and leave off the rhetoric. Conversely, any overt action from the US will cement his position as surely as any national leader, however incompetent, when a country is threatened. (I know it happened before, quite recently, just can't put my finger on where...)

    I doubt if even the current US administration is dumb enough to engage Iran in any sort of hostilities. They are dumb enough to escalate this, however, so anything's possible - after all, they have pretty much guaranteed that Iran's old enemy Iraq will be an obedient puppet state -for the Iranians. (Shia controlled governments for the foreseeable, in case anyone is unsure).

    There was a reason why previous US administrations installed Saddam Hussein as dictator and kept him there until he believed in his ability to get away with anything. He was a minority Sunni, and made war on Iran.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  2. #2
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    London, England.
    Posts
    11,058

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Id put a fiver on the war of words continuing then a US back down - after all what the hell else can they do? No resources to fight - militarily more so than economically - and no diplomatic pressure to bear.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  3. #3
    Sovereign Oppressor Member TIE Fighter Shooter Champion, Turkey Shoot Champion, Juggler Champion Kralizec's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    5,812

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Quote Originally Posted by Haruchai
    There was a reason why previous US administrations installed Saddam Hussein as dictator and kept him there until he believed in his ability to get away with anything. He was a minority Sunni, and made war on Iran.
    Except that Saddam wasn't installed by the USA.

    I voted for the bottom option. I can see how another president then Bush (who wouldn't dare such a move right now) would pull of a Clintonite strategy by tomahawking their nuclear plants from a safe distance and then leaving, but I find it far more likely that a compromise will be reached, or that the whole issue will simply fade from the news.

  4. #4
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Taplow, UK
    Posts
    8,690
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Not installed, merely supported.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  5. #5
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    In ur nun, causing a bloody schism!
    Posts
    7,906

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Quote Originally Posted by Haruchai
    I would expect the Iranians to find a way out after establishing their 'leadership' credentials for the Muslim world. President Ahmadinejad is already on shaky ground with reformers, and the poor who voted for him are becoming disenchanted. He will need to turn inward soon and leave off the rhetoric. Conversely, any overt action from the US will cement his position as surely as any national leader, however incompetent, when a country is threatened. (I know it happened before, quite recently, just can't put my finger on where...)

    I doubt if even the current US administration is dumb enough to engage Iran in any sort of hostilities. They are dumb enough to escalate this, however, so anything's possible - after all, they have pretty much guaranteed that Iran's old enemy Iraq will be an obedient puppet state -for the Iranians. (Shia controlled governments for the foreseeable, in case anyone is unsure).

    There was a reason why previous US administrations installed Saddam Hussein as dictator and kept him there until he believed in his ability to get away with anything. He was a minority Sunni, and made war on Iran.
    What a mystical, wonderful world you must live in. President? Do you think he cares about "reformers" or the "poor" voters? Here's how it works: the ruling clerical elites select several candidates and say, "Here's the list of people we want in, you get to choose which one." I don't see how the poor, downtrodden, sensible, reform minded people of the world benefit from threat of war and the funding of terrorism. If people protest, they’ll just be beaten down like the recent women’s rights protest.

    The US, UK, and France are, as you put it, dumb enough to escalate this because they are. The Russians are also dumb enough to give them not only the ability to create nuclear weapons but advanced air defense systems to defend their production. Remember that it was the past administration that gave North Korea the ability to produce plutonium. If anyone does "escalate" this situation will be the US because no one else has the capability to. A couple IDF fighters won't work this time.

    Where's Redleg when you need him? You've created a wonderful strawman and I brought the match (well close enough, you get the point) . You might want to look at British involvement in Iraq at the time of Saddam's ascension as they founded the previous Monarchy and were the dominant Western power in the region.

    I seriously hope this is just a game between states and this 12th Imam Apocalyptic mantra, death to Israel, death to America, death to Denmark, death to the infidel, death to [fill in the blank] is just positioning. I don't think that's the case but it remains to be seen. Just remember they are developing nuclear capable missiles that are able to reach Europe and they have no problem killing Westerners.

    If North Korea is any indication I don't believe any action will be taken in less they either test a nuke or actually use one (and then it's too late).

    10 USD on it being nothing more than positioning.


    Reinvent the British and you get a global finance center, edible food and better service. Reinvent the French and you may just get more Germans.
    Quote Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
    How do you motivate your employees? Waterboarding, of course.
    Ik hou van ferme grieten en dikke pinten
    Down with dried flowers!
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  6. #6
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hunting the Snark, a long way from Tipperary...
    Posts
    5,604

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir
    What a mystical, wonderful world you must live in. President? Do you think he cares about "reformers" or the "poor" voters? Here's how it works: the ruling clerical elites select several candidates and say, "Here's the list of people we want in, you get to choose which one." I don't see how the poor, downtrodden, sensible, reform minded people of the world benefit from threat of war and the funding of terrorism. If people protest, they’ll just be beaten down like the recent women’s rights protest.
    Well, my world, mystical or otherwise, doesn't require the blinkers that seem to be mandatory in yours. Your characterisation of the Iranian system has some elements of truth, but the will of the people actually does have some weight. For many years now, the Iranians were reforming towards a much more Western viewpoint. You are correct to assert that Ahmadinejad was selected by the mullahs to put a stop to this, but a large part of his election win was made possible by the excluded and the poor who the reformist movement had ignored. He promised employment for all, and they expect him to make good.

    Most ordinary Iranians admire the US and loathe their new president's attitude. (Yes, I have worked there and visited and have both pro and anti- reform friends). However, they are also a very proud people, just like Americans, and don't like to be bullied. A sensible adminstration would know that Ahmadinejad and the mullahs can be isolated, not by threats but by careful diplomacy. The EU was trying that until the stakes were raised - yes, by the Iranians, but Ahmadinejad is a populist and full of hot air. They are a long way from a bomb.

    You talk about a straw man, but this is exactly what the administration is hoisting - trying the same old fear tactics on its populace. Isn't the American people tired to exhaustion of being scared? Note the similarities to their rhetoric before the Iraq invasion. Why do you trust Rumsfeld's assertions on the immediate danger of Iran's bomb when he was proven to have faulty intelligence on Saddam's WMD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir
    You might want to look at British involvement in Iraq at the time of Saddam's ascension as they founded the previous Monarchy and were the dominant Western power in the region.
    I agree. As an Irishman, I hold no brief for the British Empire. Iraq's problems are very largely a result of the old imperial game of 'draw a new map with straight lines'. It's just sad to see the US take up the imperial baton and compound the errors.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir
    I seriously hope this is just a game between states and this 12th Imam Apocalyptic mantra, death to Israel, death to America, death to Denmark, death to the infidel, death to [fill in the blank] is just positioning.
    It is just positioning. Even the mullahs know that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir
    Just remember they are developing nuclear capable missiles that are able to reach Europe and they have no problem killing Westerners.
    You ought to work for Tony Blair. Don't worry, your tin-foil hat will protect you. Heck, if you believe that, I have a bridge I can sell ye.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  7. #7
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    In ur nun, causing a bloody schism!
    Posts
    7,906

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    You ought to work for Tony Blair. Don't worry, your tin-foil hat will protect you. Heck, if you believe that, I have a bridge I can sell ye.
    For brevity sake I'll just mention this one. It's called the Shihab missle and yes it's real. Besides, even if it is just a game you need a long range delivery system or your threat isn't credible. It's not paranoia, it's common sense.

    Good observation on the Iranians, I very much agree. As I said somewhere else they are very much a modern, cosmopolitan people.

    Edit: It should be the Shihab 5, the 3 can only reach from Israel to Afganistan.
    Last edited by Vladimir; 03-10-2006 at 16:34.


    Reinvent the British and you get a global finance center, edible food and better service. Reinvent the French and you may just get more Germans.
    Quote Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
    How do you motivate your employees? Waterboarding, of course.
    Ik hou van ferme grieten en dikke pinten
    Down with dried flowers!
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  8. #8
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hunting the Snark, a long way from Tipperary...
    Posts
    5,604

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir
    For brevity sake I'll just mention this one. It's called the Shihab missle and yes it's real. Besides, even if it is just a game you need a long range delivery system or your threat isn't credible. It's not paranoia, it's common sense.
    Edit: It should be the Shihab 5, the 3 can only reach from Israel to Afganistan.
    Indeed, and the Shihab 4 also, which has a theoretical range of 2800 km (enough to reach Europe).

    However, having a prototype (which is all these are) and being able to use it effectively are two very different things. Being able to fit a nuclear warhead to one of these Soviet-era designs and make it work is yet another thing. Being able to get past modern-era defenses is close to impossible unless you have overwhelming numbers - not possible for Iran.

    The Israelis have publically noted that their Arrow 2 systems can take care of Shihabs. Europe could easily do the same, as could the States.

    The leaders of Iran are pragmatic. The extent of US power in nuclear arms means that no state is going to seriously consider use of any nuclear attack - they'd never get through, and their country would be instantly vapourised. Having a nuclear weapon is all about dick-measuring, and should be treated with the same disdain. You don't get into a fight with every insecure bar-room bully just to prove him foolish.

    Iran is a very long way from marrying their missile and a nuclear technology. They want to be recognised as a regional power. The US could make this very easy by flattery and appropriate bribes. Pander to their vanities, not their fears. Charm, don't threaten. You used to be really good at this.

    You might find a lot of Middle Eastern problems get easier fast.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  9. #9
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2000
    Location
    Exeter, England
    Posts
    6,542

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Iran isn't after nukes for offensive capabilities. They want them because the world's superpower keeps making threats. If I was the Iranians and playing there hand, I would be getting a nuke together asap.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  10. #10
    Yesdachi swallowed by Jaguar! Member yesdachi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    LA, CA, USA
    Posts
    2,454

    Default Re: US vs Iran bookmaker

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho
    Iran isn't after nukes for offensive capabilities. They want them because the world's superpower keeps making threats. If I was the Iranians and playing there hand, I would be getting a nuke together asap.
    I wonder if that is the same reason the US originally developed their Nuke program. the one they are constantly being criticized about.
    Peace in Europe will never stay, because I play Medieval II Total War every day. ~YesDachi

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO