This is definately abig "what if".

Let's see, the Wehrmacht was fairly well sized and would have had the experience of their Polish conquest but on the other hand the elite Panzers were still very primitive. Lots of Pz Is, PzIIs and Pz35/38s and only a handful of undergunned and underarmored PzIIIs and PzIVs. The MP 40 had only just entered mass production and the MP 38 was still a fairly rare weapon. Most artillery was horse drawn and the same goes for most supply.

The Kriegsmarine though was at it's greatest strength for it's surface fleet at this time and the U boot arm was still small but very effective.

The Luftwaffe was also very large at this point and for the time very well equipped for blitzkrieg warfare.

Taking this into consideration the Germans would probably have done very well initially but the advance would have been a fare bit slower seeing as the Panzer forces hadn't had the opportunity to practice true breakthrough fighting as they did in France and the Lowlands so they'd be less experienced and the tactics still rather primitive. The Soviet forces had very few good tanks at the time but they were get their KV series and T 34s on line so once these appeared they would have had total dominace of the battlefield, at least where these tanks could appear. There would probably of still been the huge routs of the 1941 invasion but with a less effective panzer arm encircling would probably have been slower and less soviets would have been captured. These fast yet slower advances might not have made the moving of Soviet industry to the Urals nessasary.

The Luftwaffe with only a single front to cover would have been able to maintain it's air superiority much longer than in the 41 invasion and with german industry not threatened by allied bombing the quick replacement of llost equipment could have allowed air dominance instead of just superiority. Without the losses of Ju 52 transports in an invasion of Crete the Luftwaffe would also have had it's elite Fallshirmjaeger to deploy in advance of Wehrmacht units and to capture bridgeheads and other strategic locations which if done properly could have made up for the weakness of german panzer forces at the time and also have allowed for an effective abiltity to supply forward units from the air to keep the momentum going.

The Kriegsmarine would have again had dominance over the Baltic sea but without the losses of the Norway invasion would have been perhaps able to better support the advance of units near the shore and if done correctly to help in a siege or encirclement of Leningrad. And without the heavy losses the U boot arm took from British destroyers and convoys the Germans might have been able to spare more U IIs for transport to the Black sea in greater support of Romanian operations.

All in all I think the Germans would have achieved great initial success just like in 41 and with the Soviets morale having lowered do to their poor performance in the Winter War with the Finns the USSR might have actually collapsed like it was predicted in 41. On the other hand without the experiences learned in France the Germans would probably not have been near as daring as they were with their strategic objectives in 41 so perhaps they would have been prepared for the winter and had a successful spring offensive in 41 to take Moscow or perhaps this would have enabled the Soviets to retain more control strategicly and to put the war into a stalemate much sooner than 42-43