Operation Barbarossa - What if

[Brenus]

“a book”: Well, it is not because it is written that is true, second a lot of politicians said (and still say) thing to win elections, like “I will make peace”, then make wars. Nothing new under the sun, for what I know. According to Roosevelt, never the US will be involved in the war in Europe, which became the target N01, even if it was the Japaneese who attacked the US.balloon2:

[Aenlic]

The accepted view is that if the RAF failed and the Blitz gone on, then Churchill would have been out, and Lord Halifax would have been in. Halifax was favored by the majority in Britain as late as May of 1940, from everything I've seen. So, since you've chosen to take a contrarian view, please feel free to prvide some proof. Refusing to even consider "a book" which just happens to be the definitive source on Lord Halifax, is edging close to willful ignorance. At that point, no further discussion need be held until the condition is cured.

[Brenus]

“The accepted view is that if the RAF failed and the Blitz gone on, then Churchill would have been out,” Right, that is the point. I do not ACCEPT views. I challenge views.
“Halifax was favored by the majority in Britain as late as May of 1940” How do we know that? Polls? Elections? We had plenty of examples where some people were seen as favourites before an election then they lost the elections. The British are not good in accepting defeat as shown by their history.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

“The accepted view is that if the RAF failed and the Blitz gone on, then Churchill would have been out,” Right, that is the point. I do not ACCEPT views. I challenge views.
“Halifax was favored by the majority in Britain as late as May of 1940” How do we know that? Polls? Elections? We had plenty of examples where some people were seen as favourites before an election then they lost the elections. The British are not good in accepting defeat as shown by their history.

Aenlic and I disagree as to the potential success of an invasion of Britain, but his point about Halifax is not without merit. Consider:

1. Halifax was the most "pro" German political leader in Britain at the time (with the possible but unconfirmed exception of Edward VII). He had been advocating an avoidance of/cessation of conflict with Germany until a very recent point before then.

2. Britain could have sued for peace and Hitler would have (in all probability) accepted. It may have been palatable, as Britain had succesfully pulled off the Dunkirk evacuation (BEF losses were nothing compared to the Somme), was enjoying success in Libya, had exacted a significant cost in German aircrew/planes, and could point to successes at Sea and in Norway. In short, it could have been "spun" as calling it a draw and blamed on the French for folding like a paper sack (not exactly accurate, but could have been spun that way -- US "neo-cons" are doing so to the present day).

3. If a Halifax government had ended the conflict, then Germany could have turned on the Soviets, and it is not as though the Soviets were popular in the British government anyway.

The key issue hinges on British popular opinion shifting away from Winnie (possible, the Blitz was certainly fraying tempers) and to Halifax (I don't have any good data on this one way or the other).


Had Britain opted out of the war, the USA would have had no pretext whatsoever to ship supplies to the Soviets, and Germany would have had fewer concerns in the Med to de-rail its Eastward efforts. Barbarossa would probably not have been launched any earlier, but may have had more success (some Historians argue that it should have worked as it was).

[Brenus]

Well, ok, I accept this point, even if there are too much if. First, we actually have, for what I know, one idea of the plan of battle of the Germans against England. Second, as you mentioned, England was enjoying successes against Italians in Ethiopia and Libya. In 1940, Crete was still English and Mediterranean Sea an English Lake.

So to ask for peace when you are not losing the war it quiet difficult. The French did it few days after the fall of Paris (and attacked in the Alps by Italy), the Polish when Warsaw was in flame and attacked by the Russians.
I am not sure that a man who wanted to make peace with Germany would have been elected, and in fact was not elected. THAT is fact.
Now, like you, I don’t think the Germans Navy could have cross the Channel. Again, it yook three years and more for the allies to plan and built the invasion fleet and infrastructure. How the Panzers would have work. Remember, they need petrol. The Germans hadn’t aircraft carriers, so what about the air support which proved to be decisive in France. Almost each time the French and Germans tanks fought each others, the French won. Balance was re-established by the Stukas…

Now, if UK would have sign peace with Germany, do you really believe that wouldn’t worry Stalin, one of the biggest paranoid in the planet at this time? Do you think the Red Army wouldn’t have shot down any Germans planes which violated his air space immediately? The only reason why Stalin couldn’t believe the German attack in June 1941 was BECAUSE Hitler was still at war with the UK. He couldn’t believe that Hitler did the same mistake than the Kaiser…
So, not only the peace with England wouldn’t give more freedom with Hitler, but the Red army wouldn’t have received order not to resist the invasion, Stalin being sure it was mistake. Instead, when the Russians noticed the Armies Grouping on their borders, the Red Alert would have be put on place, Stalin would have read more carefully the report from Sorge and the Germans would have found the T34 and KV2 a little bit earlier in the process. Even if the Germans would have won the first battles, we can also imagine that the Scorch Hearth Tactic would have been applied immediately. With an early defence, with no elements of surprise, the move of the war factories to the Ural wouldn’t have been necessary, so the USSR war production would have been immediate.
At the end, the key success of Barbarossa was surprise. With peace with the UK, this element would have been lost.