a type of glitch, a minor addendum and a major breakthrough
1) a type of glitch
generally if the AI is stuck it can be hard to spot as often it is just one stack among many but then there's the other kind
this can happen when
a) a faction has only one potential adjacent land target and the army assigned to it is stuck
b) a faction has no potential land targets and the a naval landing has glitched
c) a faction temporarily has no adjacent land targets cos it's at peace with all it's neighbors - this generally only happens briefly after defeating one enemy faction and before starting a new war with a neighbor
in this case it was (c) - Macedon has just defeated Greece and was at peace with all its other neighbors
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2) a minor addendum
the fastest way to clear most path-finding glitches is to check the settlement-to-settlement path between adjacent regions looking for any clipping issues however
vanilla Macedon: army in Larissa moves out to city "waiting spot" (usually the tile SW of settlement unless it's blocked) and waits, getting extra units from Larissa each turn and getting the Captain promoted to general (the AI will often promote a captain of a stack that has been assigned a target settlement)
261BC
and waits 254BC
and waits 226BC
eventually (209BC) another faction takes the target settlement (Athens)
and the stack moves
but after 100+ turns of not expanding and paying the upkeep for a full stack that isn't doing anything it's a bit late
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Solution
if you look at the fastest path from Larissa to Athens it seems okay
and to be thorough the fastest path from Larissa's waiting spot to Athens also
but if you move the mouse around the tiles adjacent to the target settlement rather than the settlement itself the path clips the Corinth region
also, just to be thorough again, on the assumption the AI doesn't calc settlement to settlement but 1) start tile to fastest path to a passable tile in the target region and then 2) from that tile to the target settlement then check that too - which clips also if for whatever reason the path finding chooses to go that way around the mountain
on the assumption the path-finding does go that way for some reason it is easily fixed by giving the tile it clips through to the Athens region - which seems to work
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so the expanded sequence is
1) check the fastest path settlement-to-settlement doesn't clip
2) check the fastest path from the start settlement's waiting spot to the target settlement doesn't clip
3) check the fastest paths to tiles adjacent to the target settlement don't clip
4) lastly check the fastest path from the start settlement to a passable tile in the target region is not different from the fastest path overall
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example of last point
the fastest path from Narbo to Lugdunum seems okay
(actually it's not as although the diagonal from Narbo region to Lug region doesn't clip, the underlying orthogonal path can only go either right and up or up and right and the latter is blocked by the mountain tile so the orthogonal path clips the Massilia region - however it can easily be fixed by removing that corner tile from Massilia)
however the fastest path from Narbo to the nearest passable tile in Lugdunensis is like this
and the fastest path from that tile within Lugdunensis region to Lugdunum clips back into Narbo region.
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