The Decline and Fall of the EU

[English assassin]

My bad.

Average age in Pakistan today: 19.8, 39% under 15

Average age in Morrocco today: 23.9 31.6% under 15

Average age in Turkmenistan today: 21.8, 35.2% under 15

I could go on...

[Husar]

Don´t many of these countries have a comparatively low life-expectancy anyway?
What does the average age tell us? I already knew we Europeans have too few children, but I am not sure whether that will be our destruction. We could just stop immigration anyway and throw any troublemakers out, some people shouldn´t be here anymore anyway, and while we´re at it, do not forget about Nazis and the likes, we have no use for them either.

[A.Saturnus]

Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The same was in the Telegraph, its not impossible but it is a worst case. More dicerning, less paper bashing.

[rory_20_uk]

Depends how close to Sci Fi books we end up.

It is possible that structures could continue to rise and population density continues to increase. Perhaps those at the bottom might end up utterly disenfranchised and form a subclass away from the rest. Then there is outer space. 500 years ago mobile phones would have been inconceivable. Now being without is bieng viewed the same way.

If we are stuck on this planet there will have to be a strange world for the economy to continue. Perhaps more on restoration buildings and the ecosystem. Who knows?

[doc_bean]

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

economic or demographic ?

[English assassin]

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

Point, but missing my point, which is it doesn't matter WHY the average age is 19, all that matters is you have a country with 120 million or so people and the average age IS 19. Which has to be very relevant to how that country will behave. Incidentally life expectancy in Pakistan is low 60s, which is low, but not totally stupid. For a country where excess mortality really is skewing the figures you have to go to the extreme of sub-saharan Africa and the AIDS epidemic (look up Tanzania for instance, its terrible)

the people won´t just go and say: "Oh, nice, a job, screw Islam, I´ll be a capitalist now

That is exactly what they will say, but your point that its not easy to get there and there is an element of chicken and egg is also right.

[A.Saturnus]

economic or demographic ?

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

[doc_bean]

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

Then please elaborate why demographic stagnation would be such a disaster.

[Tribesman]

Another interesting demographic factor:

1950:

Soviet Union: 280 million inhabitants
Pakistan: 35 million

2000:

Russia: 150 million
Pakistan 150 million

Interesting , but what is the population of all of the states that were part of the soviet Union in 1950 ?
And since this is partly about immigaration , how many of those former soviet citizens have emigrated to Europe/America/Australia or Israel since the end of the Union .

edit to add , Louis...
One more:

1950:

Algeria: 10 million, of which 10% French
France: 50 million, 1% Algerian

shoudn't that be Algeria :10 million and they are all French
France :50 million , whats an Algerian ?

[A.Saturnus]

Then please elaborate why demographic stagnation would be such a disaster.

It isn't. Quite the contrary. At the moment we have exponential growth of population. The laws of thermodynamics require that the rise has to stop and population reach a (meta-)stable level. The concern is how this happens.

[thrashaholic]

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

Surely the end of population growth would be a glorious day for the world providing it could still grow economically (which it would) and would bring about an end to misery. Malthus' prediction of ever decreasing living standards due to populations growing larger than the economy could sustain (law of diminishing returns) would become redundant and his desire to stop the population growing would have come to fruition.

The end of economic growth would be a disaster, especially if coupled with population growth for the exact reason Malthus proposed: less things to go around more people. Look at what happenned in the 30s...

[A.Saturnus]

Surely the end of population growth would be a glorious day for the world ...

The concern is how this happens.

It seems likely that such a level will be reached, based on extrapolation of data of current western countries. Or simply because we will run out of food. But please don't make in this into pseudo-science...

Turning all energie in the universe into humans would reduce enthropy.
Since the universe is finite, an infinite growth is obviously impossible. More relevant of course are the limits of growth here on earth. The ecosystem will at some point cease to support the amount of human life. It is however naive to think that reaching the maximum will necessarily be a unexciting event. Imagine the following example: more and more people enter a boat. At some point the weight of the people will become to much for the boat.
There are two ways that can end:
- enough people get off the boat again
- the boat sinks

Which is more likely to happen?

[econ21]

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

End of growth of what? Population or economy? The latter has already happened in some countries. On the former, I am not sure I would write off economic growth just yet. Taking a long view, it has already really just started (industrial revolution & after). Taking a short view, the recent good fortunes of China and India suggest the same.

EDIT #1: Just noticed Doc_Bean beat me to my question.

EDIT #2: Just read the article. What a load of expletive deleted. UK immigrants are going to form a fifth column for a foreign power (which one exactly? the immigrants are incredibly divided in terms of nationality). Africans are going to start raiding the med? (I wish the continent were in a position to be as strong military relative to Europe as the Goths were to Rome). Yes, there may well be homegrown terrorism (July 7th anyone?) and possibly even Mediterranean piracy (already happens of West Africa). But to say this is going to lead to a "fall of Rome" kind of event is just too stupid.

[English assassin]

Don´t many of these countries have a comparatively low life-expectancy anyway?
What does the average age tell us? I already knew we Europeans have too few children, but I am not sure whether that will be our destruction. We could just stop immigration anyway and throw any troublemakers out, some people shouldn´t be here anymore anyway, and while we´re at it, do not forget about Nazis and the likes, we have no use for them either.

Life expectancy is not the issue: these are the population profiles TODAY.

I think those demographic figures are very interesting. As for what they tell you, that depends in part on what you ask them.

For me, for example, the fact that the average age in Pakistan is under 20, and 40% of the WHOLE COUNTRY is under 15, tells me something about a cause of radical Islam in that country: teenage boys. Teenage boys like causes and death. Teenage boys start behaving better once they have a girl, but only if the girl has choices and some power, so she can force him to stop behaving like a [bottom] or she will leave.

Therefore defeating radical islam in Pakistan means giving boys jobs and girls rights.

And so on.

Incidentally, not that it may matter much, (although it may matter a lot), but exactly HOW will we stop immigration to Europe, when our average age is in the 40s and the surrounding nations is in the low 20s? short of recruiting some of the surrounding people and paying them to keep the rest out, physically how would you keep people out? You can't. Even the USA can't and they are in a far better position geographically. Another reason to work to make our neighbours better disposed to us.

Just to forestall the inevitable wiff of racism (hello, its immigration control, it necessarily discriminates on the grounds of nationality) why does this matter? Well, one for instance is that we are starting to feel our way towards consuming less and paying more in order to have a more environmentally sustainable lifestyle. Recent arrivals from poor countries are much less likely to accept that they should make those sacrifices. They will feel, accurately, that we had it good for years, and now its their turn. Their views on other issues, civil rights for instance, are likely to differ considerably from ours.

I make no apology for saying I like European culture and want to continue to live under it. That is in no way incompatible with immigration, but its incompatible with the namby pamby approach we have had to immigration so far.

[InsaneApache]

What! we have a policy on immigration?

I just heard on Radio 5 that illegal immigrants are now getting tax credits from Brown, just by providing a NI number, given to them by the DWP. Even though they knew that they were here illegally.

Wait! So we do have an immigration policy. The policy is that we don't have one.

[Husar]

Life expectancy is not the issue: these are the population profiles TODAY.

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

Therefore defeating radical islam in Pakistan means giving boys jobs and girls rights.

That sounds nice, but you have to defeat radical Islam first in order to give girls rights, otherwise you could end up in exile.
And giving boys jobs means to establish some kind of industry and education and that means establishing something similar to what these people hate so much.
It´s always easy to say that this and that needs to be changed, but keep in mind, that to change that, you may need a lot of force to keep the haters down and maybe fight a civil war, because the people won´t just go and say: "Oh, nice, a job, screw Islam, I´ll be a capitalist now..."

[CBR]

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

from http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications...ook/index.html

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Pakistan:
Population growth rate:
2.09% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
29.74 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
8.23 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 70.45 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 63.39 years

Total fertility rate:
4 children born/woman (2006 est.)


Morocco:
Population growth rate:
1.55% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
21.98 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
5.58 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 40.24 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 70.94 years

Total fertility rate:
2.68 children born/woman (2006 est.)


Turkmenistan:
Population growth rate:
1.83% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
27.61 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
8.6 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 72.56 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 61.83 years

Total fertility rate:
3.37 children born/woman (2006 est.)


A typical Western country would have about same births and deaths and fertility rate of around 2 or less.

CBR

[Louis VI the Fat]

Another interesting demographic factor:

1950:

Soviet Union: 280 million inhabitants
Pakistan: 35 million


2000:

Russia: 150 million
Pakistan 150 million


2050 estimate:

Russia: 130 million
Pakistan 300 million


It appears that within decades, demography will have completely altered the power balance between Pakistan and Russia.

In 1950, it would've been inconcievable, a science-fiction scenario, that Pakistan could challenge the Soviet Union in the foresable future. Yet, this is exactly what has happened over the span of just a century.

It is not at all inconcievable that the demographic disparity between Europe and it's neighbours will have the far-reaching consequences that some people say it will have...

[Louis VI the Fat]

One more:

1950:

Algeria: 10 million, of which 10% French
France: 50 million, 1% Algerian

2000:

Algeria: 35 milion, 0% French
France: 60 million, 6% Algerian

2050 estimate:

Algeria: 70 million, 0% French
France: 70 million, 10% Algerian