The Decline and Fall of the EU

[Taffy_is_a_Taff]

doom and gloom as reported in the Sun with big pages and no tits (Times of London):

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...0267_1,00.html

[rory_20_uk]

That certainly is the Worst Case Scenario.

Measures could easily be put in place to prevent such things. Sure, we now have low cost flights, but if such a problem arose they could be curtailed.

Every time immigrants come to another country it is the end of the world. Be it the French, the Dutch, the Jews, the Carribeans or whatever. All were somehow going to destroy the UK.

Barbaray pirates? A few small ships is not going to bring Europe to its knees. The Yacht sailing minority I am less concerned about. Perhaps they could pleasure cruise elsewhere?

Worst case scenario for those that think Africa is about to destroy the enirety of Europe:

Flights are reduced, ticket prices are increased and people are checked thoroughly, and deported very quickly (next plane).
Police the north coast of Africa to a depth of a mile or so. No more boats!

Come on! We're Anglo-Saxons! Historially from Saxony or supposed to be. Britain has always been a "mongrel race". Sure, we might the country might be altered by immigrants, but isn't that always the way the world changes?

[Adrian II]

doom and gloom as reported in the Sun with big pages and no tits (Times of London):

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...0267_1,00.html

That Rear Admiral is clearly wearing his head up his military rank.

Boy, am I weary of all the implausible doom scenarios we hear; British and American commentators predicting the demise of the EU, continental Europeans revelling in unreal visions of the downfall of the United States. These days, when I spot the words 'Roman Empire' in an article on the U.S. or EU, I stop reading.

[English assassin]

Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future

To be fair, its his job to think up the worst case scenarios. As reported by the Times, nothing in what he was saying seemed at all impossible, indeed it all seems fairly reasonable. Its not his job to predict the most likely future, its his job to try to prepare for the worst possible one.

Indeed, in some respects the situation is worse than he seems to be suggesting. The article posits a large gender imbalance in thrid world countries as a destablising factor, but the age imbalance that we already know will unquestionably happen is likely to be just as destabalising without the need to imagine any one family-one child policies.

Average age in the UK today: 39.3, 17.5% under 15
Average age in Italy today, 42.2, 13.8% under 15

Average age in Iran today: 24.8, 26% under 15

And so on. Go...figure...

[Tribesman]

Average age in the UK today: 39.3, 17.5% under 15
Average age in Italy today, 42.2, 13.8% under 15

Average age in Iran today: 24.8, 26% under 15

And so on. Go...figure...
Go figure???? Iran had a bloody big war where human waves were sent off with the keys to heaven , that does tend to have a bit of an impact on certain age groups .

[English assassin]

My bad.

Average age in Pakistan today: 19.8, 39% under 15

Average age in Morrocco today: 23.9 31.6% under 15

Average age in Turkmenistan today: 21.8, 35.2% under 15

I could go on...

[Husar]

Don´t many of these countries have a comparatively low life-expectancy anyway?
What does the average age tell us? I already knew we Europeans have too few children, but I am not sure whether that will be our destruction. We could just stop immigration anyway and throw any troublemakers out, some people shouldn´t be here anymore anyway, and while we´re at it, do not forget about Nazis and the likes, we have no use for them either.

[A.Saturnus]

Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The same was in the Telegraph, its not impossible but it is a worst case. More dicerning, less paper bashing.

[rory_20_uk]

Depends how close to Sci Fi books we end up.

It is possible that structures could continue to rise and population density continues to increase. Perhaps those at the bottom might end up utterly disenfranchised and form a subclass away from the rest. Then there is outer space. 500 years ago mobile phones would have been inconceivable. Now being without is bieng viewed the same way.

If we are stuck on this planet there will have to be a strange world for the economy to continue. Perhaps more on restoration buildings and the ecosystem. Who knows?

[English assassin]

Don´t many of these countries have a comparatively low life-expectancy anyway?
What does the average age tell us? I already knew we Europeans have too few children, but I am not sure whether that will be our destruction. We could just stop immigration anyway and throw any troublemakers out, some people shouldn´t be here anymore anyway, and while we´re at it, do not forget about Nazis and the likes, we have no use for them either.

Life expectancy is not the issue: these are the population profiles TODAY.

I think those demographic figures are very interesting. As for what they tell you, that depends in part on what you ask them.

For me, for example, the fact that the average age in Pakistan is under 20, and 40% of the WHOLE COUNTRY is under 15, tells me something about a cause of radical Islam in that country: teenage boys. Teenage boys like causes and death. Teenage boys start behaving better once they have a girl, but only if the girl has choices and some power, so she can force him to stop behaving like a [bottom] or she will leave.

Therefore defeating radical islam in Pakistan means giving boys jobs and girls rights.

And so on.

Incidentally, not that it may matter much, (although it may matter a lot), but exactly HOW will we stop immigration to Europe, when our average age is in the 40s and the surrounding nations is in the low 20s? short of recruiting some of the surrounding people and paying them to keep the rest out, physically how would you keep people out? You can't. Even the USA can't and they are in a far better position geographically. Another reason to work to make our neighbours better disposed to us.

Just to forestall the inevitable wiff of racism (hello, its immigration control, it necessarily discriminates on the grounds of nationality) why does this matter? Well, one for instance is that we are starting to feel our way towards consuming less and paying more in order to have a more environmentally sustainable lifestyle. Recent arrivals from poor countries are much less likely to accept that they should make those sacrifices. They will feel, accurately, that we had it good for years, and now its their turn. Their views on other issues, civil rights for instance, are likely to differ considerably from ours.

I make no apology for saying I like European culture and want to continue to live under it. That is in no way incompatible with immigration, but its incompatible with the namby pamby approach we have had to immigration so far.

[InsaneApache]

What! we have a policy on immigration?

I just heard on Radio 5 that illegal immigrants are now getting tax credits from Brown, just by providing a NI number, given to them by the DWP. Even though they knew that they were here illegally.

Wait! So we do have an immigration policy. The policy is that we don't have one.

[Husar]

Life expectancy is not the issue: these are the population profiles TODAY.

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

Therefore defeating radical islam in Pakistan means giving boys jobs and girls rights.

That sounds nice, but you have to defeat radical Islam first in order to give girls rights, otherwise you could end up in exile.
And giving boys jobs means to establish some kind of industry and education and that means establishing something similar to what these people hate so much.
It´s always easy to say that this and that needs to be changed, but keep in mind, that to change that, you may need a lot of force to keep the haters down and maybe fight a civil war, because the people won´t just go and say: "Oh, nice, a job, screw Islam, I´ll be a capitalist now..."

[doc_bean]

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

economic or demographic ?

[English assassin]

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

Point, but missing my point, which is it doesn't matter WHY the average age is 19, all that matters is you have a country with 120 million or so people and the average age IS 19. Which has to be very relevant to how that country will behave. Incidentally life expectancy in Pakistan is low 60s, which is low, but not totally stupid. For a country where excess mortality really is skewing the figures you have to go to the extreme of sub-saharan Africa and the AIDS epidemic (look up Tanzania for instance, its terrible)

the people won´t just go and say: "Oh, nice, a job, screw Islam, I´ll be a capitalist now

That is exactly what they will say, but your point that its not easy to get there and there is an element of chicken and egg is also right.

[econ21]

I maintain that the greatest challenge to any national security is the end-of-growth event that will inevitably come some day in the future. But no one wants to hear about it.

End of growth of what? Population or economy? The latter has already happened in some countries. On the former, I am not sure I would write off economic growth just yet. Taking a long view, it has already really just started (industrial revolution & after). Taking a short view, the recent good fortunes of China and India suggest the same.

EDIT #1: Just noticed Doc_Bean beat me to my question.

EDIT #2: Just read the article. What a load of expletive deleted. UK immigrants are going to form a fifth column for a foreign power (which one exactly? the immigrants are incredibly divided in terms of nationality). Africans are going to start raiding the med? (I wish the continent were in a position to be as strong military relative to Europe as the Goths were to Rome). Yes, there may well be homegrown terrorism (July 7th anyone?) and possibly even Mediterranean piracy (already happens of West Africa). But to say this is going to lead to a "fall of Rome" kind of event is just too stupid.

[CBR]

Of course it is, if the average life expectancy is 30, how can you expect the average age to be 45?

from http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications...ook/index.html

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Pakistan:
Population growth rate:
2.09% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
29.74 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
8.23 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 70.45 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 63.39 years

Total fertility rate:
4 children born/woman (2006 est.)


Morocco:
Population growth rate:
1.55% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
21.98 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
5.58 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 40.24 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 70.94 years

Total fertility rate:
2.68 children born/woman (2006 est.)


Turkmenistan:
Population growth rate:
1.83% (2006 est.)

Birth rate:
27.61 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Death rate:
8.6 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 72.56 deaths/1,000 live births

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 61.83 years

Total fertility rate:
3.37 children born/woman (2006 est.)


A typical Western country would have about same births and deaths and fertility rate of around 2 or less.

CBR

[Louis VI the Fat]

Another interesting demographic factor:

1950:

Soviet Union: 280 million inhabitants
Pakistan: 35 million


2000:

Russia: 150 million
Pakistan 150 million


2050 estimate:

Russia: 130 million
Pakistan 300 million


It appears that within decades, demography will have completely altered the power balance between Pakistan and Russia.

In 1950, it would've been inconcievable, a science-fiction scenario, that Pakistan could challenge the Soviet Union in the foresable future. Yet, this is exactly what has happened over the span of just a century.

It is not at all inconcievable that the demographic disparity between Europe and it's neighbours will have the far-reaching consequences that some people say it will have...

[Louis VI the Fat]

One more:

1950:

Algeria: 10 million, of which 10% French
France: 50 million, 1% Algerian

2000:

Algeria: 35 milion, 0% French
France: 60 million, 6% Algerian

2050 estimate:

Algeria: 70 million, 0% French
France: 70 million, 10% Algerian

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I think you guys have proved the point, also, 10% tacit support is what you need for sustainable terrorism, which is why we have only had one attack in the UK by Muslims but the Civil War in Ireland went on, off, on again for 80 years.

[rory_20_uk]

Just one thought...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

These tags are good at keeping a thread condensed when you've got a mass of info to show!

[A.Saturnus]

economic or demographic ?

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

[doc_bean]

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

Then please elaborate why demographic stagnation would be such a disaster.

[Tribesman]

Another interesting demographic factor:

1950:

Soviet Union: 280 million inhabitants
Pakistan: 35 million

2000:

Russia: 150 million
Pakistan 150 million

Interesting , but what is the population of all of the states that were part of the soviet Union in 1950 ?
And since this is partly about immigaration , how many of those former soviet citizens have emigrated to Europe/America/Australia or Israel since the end of the Union .

edit to add , Louis...
One more:

1950:

Algeria: 10 million, of which 10% French
France: 50 million, 1% Algerian

shoudn't that be Algeria :10 million and they are all French
France :50 million , whats an Algerian ?

[Louis VI the Fat]

1950:

Soviet Union: 280 million inhabitants
Pakistan: 35 million

2000:

Russia: 150 million
Pakistan 150 million

Interesting , but what is the population of all of the states that were part of the soviet Union in 1950 ?

Some 280 million, like it says.

To be fair, the big drop in population is of course owing to what you hint at: the break-up of the Soviet Union. I don't have exact figures ready, but on top of my head the population of Russia proper has been stable at about 150 million for most of the period.

And since this is partly about immigaration , how many of those former soviet citizens have emigrated to Europe/America/Australia or Israel since the end of the Union .

Dunno, but numbered in millions, not tens of millions.

The main point is, that in 1945, Pakistan was a backward province of an English colony. Russia / the SU a victorious world power. Central Asia was controlled by Moscow, the unchallenged, nuclear armed, undisputed champion and economic power horse of central Eurasia.
Is it at all unlikely that in 2050 Central Asia will look to Islamabad (what's in a name?) as the undisputed leader of the region? That Pakistan will be the unchallenged, nuclear armed economic power horse of the region?
No, I don't think so.

We can all have a good laugh at generals who describe the contemporary world in terms of Goths, Romans and collapsing Empires. But history has shown that these things do happen. They are happening.

edit to add , Louis...
Algeria: 10 million, of which 10% French
France: 50 million, 1% Algerian

shoudn't that be Algeria :10 million and they are all French?

Well the Algerians certainly didn't seem to think so.

[A.Saturnus]

Then please elaborate why demographic stagnation would be such a disaster.

It isn't. Quite the contrary. At the moment we have exponential growth of population. The laws of thermodynamics require that the rise has to stop and population reach a (meta-)stable level. The concern is how this happens.

[Husar]

Is it at all unlikely that in 2050 Central Asia will look to Islamabad (what's in a name?) as the undisputed leader of the region? That Pakistan will be the unchallenged, nuclear armed economic power horse of the region?
No, I don't think so.

Have you ever heard about a country right next to Pakistan called India?
If you weigh power by the amount of population, why don´t you see India as the main power in that region?
Do you think Pakistan can have as many people as India?
Do you know that India´s population is still growing faster than that of China?

[thrashaholic]

Demographic. Economic wouldn't be such a big issue.

Surely the end of population growth would be a glorious day for the world providing it could still grow economically (which it would) and would bring about an end to misery. Malthus' prediction of ever decreasing living standards due to populations growing larger than the economy could sustain (law of diminishing returns) would become redundant and his desire to stop the population growing would have come to fruition.

The end of economic growth would be a disaster, especially if coupled with population growth for the exact reason Malthus proposed: less things to go around more people. Look at what happenned in the 30s...

[doc_bean]

It isn't. Quite the contrary. At the moment we have exponential growth of population. The laws of thermodynamics require that the rise has to stop and population reach a (meta-)stable level. The concern is how this happens.

The laws of thermodynamics ???????? They just say that all energy will eventually be heat to me...

It seems likely that such a level will be reached, based on extrapolation of data of current western countries. Or simply because we will run out of food. But please don't make in this into pseudo-science...

[Papewaio]

It isn't. Quite the contrary. At the moment we have exponential growth of population. The laws of thermodynamics require that the rise has to stop and population reach a (meta-)stable level. The concern is how this happens.

Are we using the actual 3 laws of thermodynamics or the couple of non-physics ones tacked on the end like a couple of groupies desperate for some reflected glory?

The laws of thermodynamics (not the proposed core ones like maximum power theorem) obviously would lead to a point where there isn't enough energy to sustain life.

As it stands humans are the most common large mammal with over 6000,000,000 of us, while the next most common large mammal the crabeater seal numbers 15,000,000 to 40,000,000 ... a ratio of about 200:1 of humans to the next most common large mammal.

Obviously there is a lot of us. The question is how many more of us can there be and have a nice level of life that is sustainable and that will allow others to coexist at similar levels.