Bird Flu mutated

[Avicenna]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5110084.stm

Oh dear... avian flu isn't easily transmissible between humans, but that's just a temporary thing.



IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!!!

[Devastatin Dave]

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!!!

Yup, much like SARS and ebola. This is just the fashion disease of the year for the media. Next the media will tell us we're all going to die from the snapping turtle pox.

[Avicenna]

The tiny little problem is that this is another variant of the influenza strain. The last major one was the Spanish flu, and I heard that that killed more people than WWI...

[discovery1]

The tiny little problem is that this is another variant of the influenza strain. The last major one was the Spanish flu, and I heard that that killed more people than WWI...

18 millionish I believe where killed by the 1918 flu epidemic. I'm not worried about it. Just make sure you are in good shape, or a hermit.

[Aenlic]

The limited family vector isn't as disastrous as it might seem. It doesn't signal the imminent spread of a pandemic. It is a warning, however, that the H5N1 virus is just as active as ever and, like all influenza strains, is prone to mutation. That's what makes H5N1 actually a bit scarier than other more deadly virus types like Ebola.

The problem is that it's a flu strain. Ever had the flu? Most people have. It's highly contagious. Luckily so far the transmission has only jumped from bird to human, and as seen in that article, in a very limited human to human vector. That limits the spread of the disease. But it spreads easily from bird to bird. And if it mutates into a form which allows it to spread like human flu, with relative ease from human to human, then we have a problem. Flu is extremely contagious. It spreads through all types of contact, touch, aerosol etc. Ebola, on the other hand, while much deadlier, is more limited in its transmission, being spread by contact with bodily fluids. It doesn't have an aerosol vector, for example, nor is it spread by contact with a surface which an infected person has simply touched, like the flu can be spread.

The other thing which makes H5N1 dangerous is its mortality rate. The usual flu has a very low mortality rate; so, even though it's highly contagious, it isn't also highly deadly. The simple flu can kill, though. The very young, the very old, or those already sick or who have compromised immune systems and thus the flu leads to deadlier complications like pneumonia. H5N1 is not a simple flu. The mortality rate is up near 50%. That is a problem. In a pandemic, the mortality rate would be much lower as infected people received better medical care; but I read a CDC release a few years back which suggested that the lethality of H5N1 in a human transmission vector and pandemic might have a mortality rate as high as 10-15%. That is huge, in a pandemic. Think about how quickly the flu spread spreads through an office environment. Now think about 1-2 in 10 of those people in that office dying. That's why H5N1 is such a problem. It's not just highly contagious, so far just in birds and rarely in humans, but it also has a high mortality rate. That translates to millions of deaths in a pandemic. And you, yes you, over there in the corner, are not immune.

[Ragnor_Lodbrok]

Good shape?
The 1918 epidemic killed mostly young people in good shape so this isn't too much of a protection.

[Devastatin Dave]

Oh, I forgot about mad cow. I believe it killed 3 in the US, and it happen to be 2 cows and a human. I could be wrong, but I'm not worried about the media's sickness flavor of the month.

[Aenlic]

No offense DD, but you seem to think the bird flu thing is a media creation. That is far from the truth. They're only now catching on to it. The CDC and the NIH have been sending out warnings and bulletins about it since before any media outlet I know of ever mentioned it. The bird flu didn't become a media darling until 2005 or so. The CDC has been warning about the possibilies of an avian influenza type A pandemic since the first reported cases of H5N1 way back in 1996 and 1997. The first human fatalities occurred in Feb of 2003. The media caught on when the fatalities started growing in 2004. By March of 2004, there were 12 reported cases in Vietnam (8 of which were fatal) and 23 in Thailand (16 fatal). It was the mortality rate which caught the media attention. That's when more people started paying attention to what the CDC, NIH and, worldwide the WHO, had been saying for over 5 years.

Oh, and just in case you think you're immune because you're healthy and live in a technologically advanced country. No. Not even close.

This is a flu virus. Whether or not you're healthy has nothing to do with whether or not you'll get it. It's a highly pathogenic strain. And each year we find out that it's more pathogenic than previously thought. The genotype Z of the H5N1 virus is showing itself more virulent than any previous avian strain. It passes from bird species to bird species with an ease never before seen. In humans, it is has an incredibly high mortality rate.

Let's look at the numbers (and these are just the reported and confirmed cases).

In 2003: 3 cases, 3 fatalities - 100% mortality rate
in 2004: 46 cases, 32 deaths - 70%
in 2005: 95 cases, 41 deaths - 43%

and in 2006? So far in 2006, as of last week, only halfway through the year:

84 cases, 54 deaths - 64%.

You may think you're safe. You're not.

[Blodrast]

Well, it has to become "serious enough" to warrant a bunch of money and coordination efforts invested into research and vaccines... You'd think that a few million dead chicken is pretty serious, although, to be fair, until human lives are obviously in danger, not much is going to happen. Or whatever, maybe I'm just pessimistic.

[Aenlic]

You're right, Blodrast. In fact, I suspect that the West won't wake up even if a pandemic has already started. That's because it'll start by killing the poor in the Third World. Not until it starts killing Aunt Jane down the street will the typical tunnel vision be lifted. And by then, as the CDC has been trying to make clear for almost a decade now, it may be too late to make an effective response.

[Xiahou]

I'm glad the CDC and WHO are looking into birdflu- it's their job. And birdflu is definitely a big concern for the poultry industry, it's just not a big one to me.

With a disease like measles that still kills half a million yearly, it's tough for me to get all panicky over something that's only killed several hundreds in all the time we've been watching it and it cant even spread person to person yet.

DD's pretty much right in saying this is being blown all out of proportion by the media. It smacks very much of SARS. "You're all going to die- find out how at 11."

[Aenlic]

There are 3 strains of human influenza which currently make the rounds each year. That's it. Just three. Each of those three strains probably originated as a bird flu first. Think about that.

This strain of bird flu, which has already shown that is can affect humans, is more pathogenic, more virulent, more fatal than other strain ever found. Far more. Think about that.

If the measels were as contagious as the flu, the death toll would be in the hundreds of millions. Think about that too.

The CDC estimates an H5N1 pandemic could kill from 5 million to 150 million. That's a bit more than the measels, isn't it? Think about that.

Worry about it and bite your nails? No.

But a completely cavalier attitude about it ends up being reflected in government policy, which is notoriously unable to do anything at all without a public outcry. Lack of government policy translates to lack of preparedness by those vary groups you say should worry about it; because lack of government concern means lack of funds. So the people you think should worry about it will; and will be unable to do a thing about it. Why? Because your indifference ultimately tied their hands.

[scooter_the_shooter]

Get ready people the next 20 years will be very interesting, and I am not just talking about bird flu either...

The bible says we will be warned of the end times by a few things.

Big natural disasters, tsunami, and global warming.

Famines and plagues (bird flu anyone?)

There were some other things that put it all together too that I don’t remember.


and also


The Mayans thought the world would end around now

And some monk from Ireland I think. Predicted (correctly) all the popes till the end of the world...there is one left


Add that and some of the technology we have. We could plant RFID chips in every one and use them as credit cards....mark of the beast


It may all be a coincidence....but I am going to be extra good! I'd like to leave during the rapture if all this happens during my life time thank you