Another factor which seems to affect the horde appearance is the total number of troops fielded by the faction which owns Khazar. If you have fewer troops, fewer horde will appear. Once, I let Khazar rebel. The turn before the horde appeared, the Cumans, who had been wiped out, reappeared in Khazar which they briefly owned early in the game. The Cumand reappeared as a half stack against the rebel half-stack, and they set about besieging the rebels. So, when the Mongols appeared the next turn there was a brand new half-stack of Cumans with a half-stack of rebels in the fort. The grand total of the "vast" Mongol horde which appeared was 4 stacks.

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