What would the likey outcome of "cutting and running" from Iraq be?

[Goofball]

I'll start by saying that my position on the Iraq war has up until now been that the invasion was illegal, ill-planned, and stood to provide no benefit to the American people. However, I also adhered to the "you broke it, you bought it" school of thought that says the U.S. and her allies have a responsibility to stay until they "fix" things.

But I'm starting to wonder about that now. I think it may have gotten to the point where having U.S. soldiers in Iraq can do nothing but make the situation worse for Iraqis, for Americans, and for the region as a whole.

Which led me to wonder what the hypothetical outcome would be if all Allied troops simply picked up and left within say, ninety days. Assuming that the U.S. continued to provide $$ and equipment to the new Iraqi government, what do all you Orgahs think would happen?

[Kagemusha]

I think the result will be Civil War.It will come sooner or later anyway,since the coalition cant be in Iraq forever. The current government of Iraq wont stay in power after the coalition force that is backing it up deports.
Im very pessimistic of the short range situation of Iraq.But eventually the situation will calm down,once one of the factions will win or other option is that Iraq seizes to exists and brakes in to smaller states.

[Lemur]

It is possible that the best thing would be for us to get out of the way and let them have their civil war. That will never happen, however. If nothing else, the Iranian regime's readiness to move into the power vacuum would prevent our leaving. And the very real possibility of creating a failed state would be too dangerous for us to stomach.

[Big_John]

way to complex a question to answer, imo. for example, you say "Assuming that the U.S. continued to provide $$ and equipment to the new Iraqi government", but what does that entail? does that include a full array of modern armaments? what are the limitations on our assitance? will we, for example, continue to provide $$ and weapons if the government starts to deviate from our vision for the country?

the idea of "you broke it you bought it" may not really apply to iraq. i mean, in a way it was already broken, as a concept. should we try to maintain an artificial (and failed) state in that region anyway, from a humanitarian point of view?

if i had to hazzard a guess, i think the insecurity of the nation would eventually lead a strong shi'a militant government to take over. in such a case, we'd probably see a lot of intervention by iran and some more surreptitious intervention by the US, israel and the saudis. but it's just a guess.

[Watchman]

Given that the sectarian nuts seem to already be rehearsing for a local licensed reproduction of the Yugoslavian succession wars, I daresay bugging out wouldn't result in anything particularly pretty. No, not even compared to how things are currently going, and that's saying something since that is "to Hell in a handbasket"...

I'm also half convinced that if the state of Iraq goes the way of the Dodo there'll be a big mess on the northern border, what with the rather volatile mix of opportunistic Iranians, virtually autonomous Kurds with oil, and Turkey with a thing about Kurds.

[IrishArmenian]

For the US it would be a soon War with Iran and/or Korea, in which the only way they can regain their "tough to beat" reputation would be to wage all out total war, just like Sherman did in their Civil War. Civil War in Iraq will ensue, and they will go to the way they used to be.

[Watchman]

...Ottomans... gone....
...Ilkhanids... gone...
...Seljuks and other Turks... gone...
...Caliphate... even longer gone...

Uh, how is it they used to be ?

[Avicenna]

Disgusting atrocities that mock attempts of enforcing human rights, like this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5129350.stm

might just happen.

[LorDBulA]

If US forces where to leave Iraq today the Civil war would happen.
And I dont think that Iraq new government can win it even with lots and lots of dollars from US. There are many Saddam Husain like people in Iraq just waiting for the opportunity to grab the power.
It would be very bad for Iraq people. US would cause enormous amount of suffering just to trade old Devil for new one.
For the sake of Iraqis i hope that Americans have enough courage to finish what they have started.

[Lemur]

If US forces where to leave Iraq today the Civil war would happen.

M8, it looks as though civil war has been going on for at least the last year. It would just be a little more out-in-the-open if we vacated.

To many analysts, Iraq is already immersed in a civil war. Some point to the hypothetical definition of a civil war recently offered by National Director of Intelligence John Negroponte as "a complete loss of central government security control, the disintegration or deterioration of the security forces of the country."

"In academic terms, this is a civil war, and it's not even a small one," said Larry Diamond, a former consultant to the provisional authority in Baghdad who is now critical of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq.

[yesdachi]

Open civil war and a new Dictator. It would be like a welcome back to 1990 party.

The new Dictator would probably find a stock pile of WMD’s in a crate labeled WMD’s in a building with a sign the reads WMD’s in a little town named WMD’s.

[Keba]

M8, it looks as though civil war has been going on for at least the last year. It would just be a little more out-in-the-open if we vacated.

To many analysts, Iraq is already immersed in a civil war. Some point to the hypothetical definition of a civil war recently offered by National Director of Intelligence John Negroponte as "a complete loss of central government security control, the disintegration or deterioration of the security forces of the country."

"In academic terms, this is a civil war, and it's not even a small one," said Larry Diamond, a former consultant to the provisional authority in Baghdad who is now critical of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq.

However, instead of an appearance of peace ... and a democratic goverment (or at least, a semblance of it) ... Iraq would end up with a dictator, and one being a dictator openly. The biggest problem is that the dictator would likely be from an extremist group, thus turning Iraq into a breeding ground for terrorits organizations. Anyways, big trouble.

I do still oppose the war, but, reap what you have sown and all that stuff.

[yesdachi]

Whatever Dictator would be would surly rise to power and popularity by bashing the US.

[Watchman]

A populist with a reasonably legit hobby horse ? Could be worth it, just for the rarity value.

[solypsist]

install me and i'll declare the one man, one vote system:

i'm the man. i get the vote.

problem solved.

oh, and...uh...right between the eyes, etc.

[Watchman]

Ah, the Ankh-Morpork model.

[Don Corleone]

Well, it's taken me 36 years, but if nothing else, the ongoing war in Iraq has taught me that Democracy (whatever that really is) is no panacea. This sounds harsh and heartless, but there's plenty of the world that's not ready for self-determination. Should we build institutions that pave the way? Sure. But true self-determination is one of those things that must be evolved into... people tend to gloss over our own history for example. Read about Shay's rebellion, the Whiskey Rebellion, et. al... the Articles of Confederation timeframe was a rather difficult time for anybody.

That being said, it would be criminal of us to leave Iraq now. You can't walk into a school yard, hand out brass knuckles to a bunch of 12 year old boys, slap a couple in the back of the head, then walk off and leave them in a pitched brawl claiming 'hey, this all their doing'. It's time for us to get about the business of acting towards our stated goals.

P.S. Sorry for the long absence folks. No temper tantrums this time... I got a new job. Details in the frontroom when I get some time.

[Csargo]

Whatever Dictator would be would surly rise to power and popularity by bashing the US.

Seems farmiliar.

[rory_20_uk]

Well, seeing as what a "great" job has been done in Iraq, who could blame the locals rallying against the occupiers?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Many of the current problems are the result of the US' use of inappropriate amounts of force in order to protect its own troops and as a result alienate the Iraqis. The US needs to take a step back and let the British teach them how to do peacekeeping properly, they also need to get over Vietnam, Iraq is a totally different situation. It isn't even a real war zone.

Less Fighting more peacekeeping and things would calm down.

If the coalition pulled out it would be war, Iran and Isreal would both probably step in and the whole thing would blow up.

[Aenlic]

The British have had their own cases of questionable tactics in Iraq too. There are no innocent.