Red Flood

**DemonArchangel** · 06-27-2007, 17:05

Franc: For the next interactive, I have a few suggestions, and I would be honored if you made one of my suggestions into an Interactive.

The Israeli/Arab Wars: Anything through 1948-Present
Byzantium: Komenan restoration period.
Reconquista Interactive (roughly 1100 A.D)
Crusades Interactive
Teutonic Knights Interactive
Late Roman Empire Interactive
WWII Pacific Interactive

**Rodion Romanovich** · 06-27-2007, 19:05

Thanks for the summary, Franc. It contained some things I thought during the story that are now nice to get confirmed, and also some things I bitterly realized in hindsight, as well as a few completely new things: in particular our missed opportunity to capture of Tobruk more quickly while the garrison was exchanged.

**Reverend Joe** · 06-28-2007, 00:07

Just skimmed over this interactive, and I have to say... I'm dissappointed. It started off with a real bang, and it looked like some crazy stuff was gonna happen (i.e. bringing Fascism to Greece, seizing Gibraltar, taking Iraq and Syria without a fight...) but as it progressed, everyone kinda got closeminded. Nothing really interesting happened. I'm sorry, but the mundanity really got to me.

I have an odd idea for an AAR, however, and this one would not only require some real intellect and imagination, but it would force some real hindsightless decisions. Here is a very quick sketch of the idea:

In 1933, the Spartakist Bolsheviks sweep into power, with the decades-long clandestine support of Russian premier Leonid Trotski (could easily be someone else... point is, Stalin was eliminated early on at Lenin's behest, and someone with Trotski's "World Revolution" dreams came to power) and the open support of the people as a whole. Germany now finds herself facing down the Fascist nations France, Britain and Italy, who are kept at bay only by the threat of the Russian Steamroller crashing down on their heads. The first section of the AAR (if you want to) will require the main character to rapidly rebuild and rearm Germany, now doubly devastated by the destruction of the Heer and Wermacht (via mass mutinies and general uprising), as well as quickly coordinate a strategy to defeat the Fascist Bloc, ... before the Fascists decide to strike. It could be quite interesting, if pulled off properly.

The second part, of course, would be the resulting struggle across Europe.

This would require an assload of research and speculation, so... just throwing that one out there.

**Franconicus** · 06-28-2007, 07:31

Reverend Gonzo, I agree with most of what you say. A pity, that you did not jump on the train, while it was running.

Good luck for your interactive plans. Sounds very promising. You could also reduce the topic to a Germany Revolution of 1919 topic.

DA:

Franc: For the next interactive, I have a few suggestions, and I would be honored if you made one of my suggestions into an Interactive.

The Israeli/Arab Wars: Anything through 1948-Present
Byzantium: Komenan restoration period.
Reconquista Interactive (roughly 1100 A.D)
Crusades Interactive
Teutonic Knights Interactive
Late Roman Empire Interactive
WWII Pacific Interactive

Thank you for your proposals. I already have one in mind, but don't know how I could do it all by myself. My skills are limited (as you have seen) and my time is too.

**King Kurt** · 06-28-2007, 14:27

Franc

I have been thinking a bit about our lack of alternative strategies and wondered if there was an inevitability about it. As I made clear on many occasions, I did not think the Gib option was a starter - history tells us that Spain was never going to openly side with the Germans and, strategicaly what did it deliver? It's main use was as a supply base for Malta so our airbourne operation solved that.
I suppose our main - only - strategic aim was capture of the Middle east with its oil. The problem - how to get there. The British navy rules the Med, with the exception of the middle where our airforces could counter it - so no significant landings of troops. That leaves us with a land only option. There are only 2 routes really - from Italian controled North Africa via Palestine or via Turkey.
As we choose the North Africa route, let's look at Turkey. The first obvious thing is that we need to get the border first. That means fighting through the Balkans - Bulgaria is the obvious choice as it is the line of least resistance. However, that removes all elements of surprise and that swiftness component so important to Blitzkrieg. With the Germans so obviously threatening Turkey, Russia would be pulled in somehow - as well as the Allies, so diplomatically we would have had to negociate something with the Russians for this to happen. So to get to a starting position is going to be difficult.
However, let's assume you can get that position, what happens if the germans attack from Bulgaria? As Turkey in the Cold War IA I have been looking at Turkey's borders in some detail and I have to say that it is well placed to defend itself. The Turkish/ Bulgaria border is quite mountainous, making for easy defence - and the front is served by a single railway line, making it difficult to supply and easy to disrupt. Even if you do break through - and Turkey has always had a large army, if not well equiped - you then face the problem of the Bosphorous. The English would have been able to ship in troops to support Turkey, so the Germans would face the difficulty of getting over the straights in the face of the British forces, including the airforce and navy. Even if that is managed, a long struggle across Asia minor is required to get to the Middle East - with supply lines stretched across a difficult landscape with a hostile population. So all in all, I don't think that the Turkish route is an option - especialy as if the Italians had not been supported in North Africa then possibly Wavell's offensive in late 1940 might have thrown them out of North Africa altogether, allowing the English to concentrate all their forces in the Middle East and Asia Minor.
As I said in my earlier comment, the thing the IA has done is counter the supposition that if Rommel had broken through in North Africa he would have swept through the Middle east like a hot knife through butter. If the purpose of an IA is to look at alternatives, to debate what-ifs then Red Flood has succeeded superbly in its full examination of this supposition.

**Franconicus** · 06-28-2007, 14:52

Are you saying that there was no way for the Germans to win war - even after the victory against France?

Well, there is the option to go with Vichy. I think this would have been a very interesting one. Hard to say what really would have happened.

Regarding Gibraltar, I think one major advantage would have been that you could have send transports to the Med and increase the supply volume for Africa.

Regarding Turkey, I do not agree. The right time would have been after the fall of Greece. You had an army and a panzergruppe there anyway, the British were pinned down at Libya. You had conquered Greece to help the Italians, so theinvasion would have been a surprise. An the Luftwaffe could easily protect the shipping across the Bosporus.

The terrain of Turkey is not ideal for tank operation, but neither was Greece. You would not have to conquer the whole country, just the way along the coast. The Turkish army wasn't that big, the population of Turkey was much much smaller than the Germans. Germany would even have allies like Bulgaria and Italy that can secure the flanks. The British would hardly been able to send ground forces.

The risk for this invasion would have been Russia. I guess Stalin would have entered war.

After all my reflexions I assume that the only way to win the war would have been to offer Turkey to Russia as a compensation for the Balkan campaign. If Russia would have taken the bite, it would have been in a clear opposition to GB and the US. GB would have had o send troops to secure Iran / Iraq. Churchill would hardly accepted that the Russians take control of the entrance of the Black Sea.

Your resume is right. How could the Germans been able to supply a Panzergruppe in the Middle East, if the only supply chain would be along North Africa? As long as the Brits seal Gibraltar and sink enough ships the Germans cannot win. Therefore they had to either open a new lane via Turkey or get more ships to the ocean.

**Reverend Joe** · 06-28-2007, 19:19

One other point: Francisco Franco was actually desperate to enter the war; it was Hitler who did not want him getting involved, after he was informed of the incredible incompetence of Franco's troops. In fact, their one and only face-to-face meeting consisted entirely of Hitler trying to explain why Spain's entry into the war would be a disaster, and Franco basically ignoring him and attempting to talk strategy; Hitler finally gave up in frustration and declared that communication with Franco was impossible, and promptly left. Franco, however, managed to turn this into a PR coup by basically lying over and over about the meeting, saying that he had to battle against Hitler to keep Spain out of the war, with Hitler threatening to send fifty divisions to take over Spain. And that is the version that became more popular.

**Reverend Joe** · 06-28-2007, 19:23

Oh, and no way in hell do I have the time or motivation to host an interactive, nor do I have the proper skills. I was throwing that out as a suggestion.

**Lord Winter** · 06-28-2007, 22:48

I think that Germany and the Soviet Union were bound to go to war eventualy. Even if Barbossa wasn't launched Stalin had plans to invade in '45. I think the best chance of a Germen victory in WWII would be Germany tying up the Balkens sooner thus elelimenating the need to postpone Barrbosa. At that stage the Germens could have used the extra time before winter to conquer Moscow, which would proably result in the colasp of the soviet government.

Also Frank great interactive