Israel and the movement of things

[Pindar]

Regardless of being either a supporter or critic of the recent actions in the Middle East with Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah: how do you think things will unfold?

[PanzerJaeger]

The US used its veto power for the first time in two years today to block an arab-backed resolution to end the Gaza incursion.

With this clear showing of support from the US, Israel may well permanently reoccupy the Gaza strip and southern Lebanon, in order to stop the vicious muslim rocket attacks and kidnappings.

Israel's only PR concern is its reputation in the US, and fighting muslim terrorism only helps them across the pond.

[Vladimir]

With Iran still a regional power, things won't change for the better. Opressive governments need a scapegoat and Israel is right next door. As I remember, things were relatively calm until we started dealing with Arafat in the 90's. It seems road to peace is wide and straight.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Reference to the path to hell if you're not familiar.

Edit to Pape:

Don't assume Lebanon has a cohesive government. Hammas has a very strong presence in the Lebanonese government. The problem is that the government doesn't have the will and ability to purge Hammas from the government. This means that the government of Lebanon is technically "responsible" in that it's weakness prohibits it from being otherwise. The western style of politics doesn’t apply in every corner of the world. Self preservation is the key. Lebanese leaders will mostly survive an attack by Israel, but they won't survive if they challenge Hammas. The two may be in opposition but the former can’t stand up against the latter. In the end, it’s just politics.

[Beirut]

I see a great effort being made to kidnap Israelis in the future. It will be the new weapon of choice by the opposition, the successor to the suicide bomb.

Israel's reaction, right or wrong, has been so frantic the enemy will not be able to resist twisting Israel's tail again and again.

[Don Corleone]

Hezbollah, at the end of the day, is Iran's homegrown export division of the Islamic revolution. There one goal is to establish Sh'ite theocracies across the Middle East and eventually the world. Syria, with no oil of it's own, continues to fund itself by playing henchmen to Iran and allowing them to use their territory as a launching pad and safe haven for Hezbollah. I feel bad for the Lebanese. While there are some Lebanese in Hezbollah, it is much more an organization of Iranians and Syrians. Other then declaring they don't care who's responsible, they're going to end it, I cannot imagine what Israel's rationale is.... Lebanon only recently threw off Syrian shackles and gained some limited form of self-determination. If Israel wants Lebanon's quasi-secular ruling coalition to collapse and have an all out theocracy at the helm to their North, they're playing all the right cards.

Personally, I think the Palestinian incursion for kidnappings, followed so closely by Hezbollah repeating the action means only one thing.... more time for Iran to develop nuclear weapons while international attention is diverted. At the end of the day, Israel is proving to be one of Iran's greatest enablers.

And you'd be hard pressed to find a more staunch defender of Israel in the Backroom then yours truly...

[Divinus Arma]

Here we go:


Some in the left media (Joe Klein specifically- on CNN about 30 minutes ago)are speculating that the Hizballah incursion was actually an act by Iranian elements, the Iranian para-military wing that supports Hizballah in Southern Lebanon (can't remember their name). The reason for this, as Joe Klein explained, was that it provides Iran with an opportunity to deflect all of the attention it was sure to get at the upcoming G8 summit. Others still (NPR) are supporting this concept by arguing that Iran may lose the support of Putin as the potential for accesion to the WTO is presented to Russia. NPR seems to confirm this an dis reporting that Israeli intelligence officials have leaked that the Israeli government has intel to show Iranian involvement.

It seems that Israel has not only taken Iran's bait, but has decided to call Iran's bluff and "go all in". Israel knows that although Iran will be able to play victim and win European support, they will ultimately lose their nuclear capability after U.S.-supported Israeli strikes obliterate their facilites. Iranian meddling in Israel will provide Israel and the United states with an opportunity to take out the Iranian nuclear capability before it is too late and without time-wasting diplomatic wrangling. The real issue here is not kidnapped soldiers or Hizballah or Hamas, it is Iran.

[Pindar]

While my post is concerned with the future, given a few of the posts I thought I would present this. It is from a lawyer Andrew Jacobson I read on a blog. His ideas:

"1. Iran is trying to build a bomb and moving fast in those efforts. Who knows how long it will take, but the Manhattan project took us less than 4 years, starting from scratch and without computers or prior technology. Difficult to believe that it will take Iran (which has already been working on this program for a number of years) 10 more years to complete. I just have no faith that the Iranians are that dumb.

2. Iran is a patron and has some level of control over Hamas.

3. Iran has a close patron relationship with Hezbollah.

4. Iran is a patron and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

5. Iran supports and/or controls some of the Shiite insurgents in Iraq.

6. North Korea is one of Iran's few friends and allies.

7. Hamas and Hezbollah know that Israel must militarily react to the recent kidnaps and attacks and that their actions will ignite, at a minimum, a low level military conflict/incursion by Israel into the Gaza and Lebanon.

8. Any military action by Israel will naturally to draw knee-jerk and harsh international criticism of Israel, regardless of the acts of the provoking parties.

9. In spite of its embarrassing missile fizzle, North Korea knows that its July 4th stunt is extremely provocative to the United States.

10. Higher gas prices (created in large part by the actions of Iran) have the American public and economy concerned.

11. Constant low level violence in Iraq, and the eager air play given such violence in the American MSM, have created an anti-war mood in the U.S.

11. Hezbollah's, Hamas's and North Korea's provocations have all occurred within a week of the date that the Iran situation is referred to the Security Council for what will likely be further endless hand wringing and inaction by that feckless organization.

13. Only two countries have the military will (maybe) and capability (probably) to possibly stop Iran from moving forward with its nuclear program — Israel and the U.S.

So here is my observation/theory — Iran has orchestrated much (if not all) of the current unrest and violence in order to: (i) distract attention from its nuclear weapons program, (ii) tie down Israel militarily in order to reduce the chances that Israel could unilaterally (or in combination with the U.S.) launch a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, (iii) scare the American public (and politicians) into rejecting any unilateral military option against Iran for fear of further inflaming the Mideast (e.g., "Geez, we've already got huge issues in North Korea, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, we can't possibly afford any further foreign entanglements" or "We better not do anything to Iran, we might further inflame the Mideast, threaten our oil supply and the U.S. economy" (Lord knows we don't want to pay $%/gallon for our SUV's)), and (iv) create world furor against Israel (and indirectly the U.S.), to further raise the stakes and international opposition to any unilateral military strikes."

[Divinus Arma]

Beat ya to it Pindar.

And I took my cues from the left.


edit: Though you did add some excellent background to further prove my our points, Sir.

[Papewaio]

Actually I think the current situation is a lot more simple and is a classic rolling snowball scenario. Simply applying a couple of the more classic sins greed and the lust for power:

The Political side of Hamas gain power in Palestine and are now the new government. Then the military arm as a whole has lost some of its glory and power. So either the entire arm or a splinter group of hardcore members decide that they do not like to be further down on the power structure and go out and do business as normal. They kidnap a soldier so they can show that they still are as powerful as before. An internal power struggle between two competing arms of the same organisation.

Now Hezbollah go "Hmm, the Hamas guys are looking tougher then us so we had better do something quick to look after our own powerbase." They go out and kidnap two soldiers. "Hey look at us we are twice as hardarse as the Hamas guys."

Never attribute something to country scale machinations when individual malice and stupidity suffice.

[Idaho]

2. Iran is a patron and has some level of control over Hamas.

3. Iran has a close patron relationship with Hezbollah.

4. Iran is a patron and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

5. Iran supports and/or controls some of the Shiite insurgents in Iraq.

6. North Korea is one of Iran's few friends and allies.

2. Is completely wrong
3. Is true
4. Is completely wrong
5. Is true
6. Is completely wrong

[Papewaio]

Very good for the militants whose powerbase gets stronger in a conflict.

If other governments see a cost benefit in assisting Israel rather then the other parties that is about the only way for a quick resolution.

I wonder what would have happened if the UK had in the 70s and 80s invaded in force into Ireland to stop the IRA? An escalation of bloodshed and if anything the loss of Northern Ireland along with international pariah status. Why? Because it was never proven that the IRA operates under the auspices of the Irish government. Now if like Palestine the IRA was put in charge and then continued terrorist activities that would change the dynamics of the situation.

Hezbollah however are not in control of Lebanon and if anything are in active opposition to the ones in power... more of an uneasy truce situation. So escalating the conflict with both Palestine and then Lebanon is not the solution path to minimising bloodshed. It might draw in Syria, who were only recently pushed out of Lebanon, so it again rewards the militants. Iran may increase funding to Hezbollah, but this maybe something they are hesitant to do knowing that the US can track money transactions and is looking for leverage to pounce on them.

Worst case scenario is another Arab vs Israel war plus Iranians plus Iraq Civil War plus a Kurdish uprising in southern Turkey. In other words war across the Middle East.

If Iran gets involved you may see an oil embargo and then $130 a barrel prices.

[nokhor]

Regardless of being either a supporter or critic of the recent actions in the Middle East with Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah: how do you think things will unfold?

1. lebanon will ask for and recieve syrian protectorate status again to kick out isreal.

2. syria and iran will publicly declare an alliance.

3. reignition of lebanese civil war, with some factions blaming israel, and others blaming hezbollah.

as of yet i can see the conflict spreading into israel and into syria, but i don't see it spreading into iraq. in fact it could have a soothing effect on the iraqi occupation as military aid from state sponsors, and jihadists and terrorists get redirected into the israel-lebanon conflict, and away from the u.s.-iraq conflict.

the idea of this being an israeli plot into war with iran or an iranian diversion away from the nukes topic doesn't seem quite right with me, because states usually don't exert that kind of influence outside their borders as much as they would like to believe otherwise. what these political entities may have planned began encountering friction in the clauewitzian sense as soon as it hit the real world. everybody seems to be reacting, nobody is proactive. israel is doing contingency plan :general mid east war 1a, and hezbollah is doing contingency plan : israeli reoccupation of southern lebanon.

[Strike For The South]

I hope Isreal loses everything. I am saddened that we used are veto just bend over alittle more for Isreal. It is mindboggling that a state that displaces in millons in inhospitable places whines and bitches when **** happens to them. People see the Isrealis and exalt them and they see the arabs and treat them like dogs.

[Strike For The South]

As for Hubberts Peak. I find it shortsighted and not applicable as it fails to recgonize so many other varibles.

[Divinus Arma]

Holy crap, sfts did become a liberal.

Heh.

[Tribesman]

I hope Isreal loses everything.
Thats not very nice Strike .
Why not just hope that the Israeli government gets some sense instead .

[Lemur]

Holy crap, sfts did become a liberal.

Since when did being pro- or anti-Israel become yet another conservative/liberal divide? Jesu Christe, is there any issue that isn't parsed for this partisan bull?

[Divinus Arma]

Since when did being pro- or anti-Israel become yet another conservative/liberal divide? Jesu Christe, is there any issue that isn't parsed for this partisan bull?

Everybody who diagrees with me is a liberal.

[Don Corleone]

Since when did being pro- or anti-Israel become yet another conservative/liberal divide? Jesu Christe, is there any issue that isn't parsed for this partisan bull?

Actually, Israeli support is a centrist position. Rejection of Israel and support for it is a position taken by extremes on both sides (the Workers Congress on the Left, the John Birch society on the Right).

[Byzantine Prince]

CNN - Link

Well there we have it. Any progress made so far was for nothing. At least we get to restart the whole thing without all the angst.

What do the orgahsms think about this?
Is there going to be another conflict that will lead to a wider war in which the Arab states will give away their sovereignty?

[PanzerJaeger]

The Middle East peace process was nothing but an attempt to give concessions to the muslims in hopes of getting them to stop blowing people up.

Didnt work. Israel was still attacked constantly.

Now there is a new peace process . . . a roman styled peace.

[Keba]

There never was peace there ... a temporary ceasefire at best. The issues of the day will not be decided by diplomacy, but by steel and blood ... that much is true for the Middle East today, and no peace talks, no ceasefires, no Western involvement will solve things.

Let them fight their war, and when they have lost enough, we will help them rebuild, and perhaps, we will be successful enough for peace there to last, but until all the sides involved decide that they have had enough ... it is pointless, and will accomplish nothing.